988
FXUS62 KMHX 151833
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
233 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR TUE AND WED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LOWER RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS
EASTERN NC THROUGH THU WITH NEXT HIGHER-END THREAT THUR NIGHT
AND FRI AHEAD OF STRONG FRONT.
2) DANGEROUS HEAT LIKELY TO RETURN LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...OVERALL PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY LESS CONDUCIVE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BEHIND A PASSING FRONT
TODAY AND REMAINING IN CONTROL. THE FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH
MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN. A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO CAPE LOOKOUT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MIGRATES ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, ALTHOUGH
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY DRIER WITH THIS FEATURE...BEST
CHANCES STILL LOOK TO BE FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 17.
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER STORMS REMAINS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER FRONT WHERE DEEPER SHEAR WILL
LIKELY BE PRESENT ALONG WITH STRONG INSTABILITY AS TEMPERATURES
SOAR BACK INTO THE 90S TO NEAR 100 AND HUMIDITY REMAINS
OPPRESSIVE. LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS, BETTER KINEMATICS AND THUS
HIGHER RISK OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE TO OUR NORTH
IN THE MID-ATLANTIC, BUT MEDIUM-RANGE AI NWP GUIDANCE STILL
HIGHLIGHTS MUCH OF THE CAROLINAS IN AN ELEVATED SEVERE RISK
ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY, AND POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO THE DAY
ON FRIDAY. THE PRIMARY THREAT RISK IS DAMAGING WINDS, BUT OTHER
HAZARDS REMAIN ON THE TABLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...BEHIND TODAY'S COLD FRONT, RELATIVELY COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S. AS ALLUDED EARLIER, INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE LATE-WEEK FRONT WILL BOOST LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
AND KICK TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY THURSDAY.
PAIRED WITH TDS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, WIDESPREAD HEAT INDICES
OF 105-110 ARE LIKELY. THE PASSING FRONT MAY COOL THINGS DOWN
BRIEFLY, BUT LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL
REMAIN A CONCERN INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT
VFR TO PREVAIL INTO TUE. THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE
TERMINALS WITH AS LIGHT N-NE BRINGS IN DRIER AIR BEHIND IT. LOWER
LEVELS LOOK TO BE A BIT LESS SATURATED OVERNIGHT, POINTING TO A
COMPARATIVELY LOWER (BUT NOT NIL) RISK OF FOG/LOW STRATUS.
OUTLOOK: ISO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM RISK WILL EXTEND INTO
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE THREAT RETURNS
THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY WITH STRONGER FRONT. OVERNIGHT
FOG AND STRATUS THREAT POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
MARINE
LATEST OBS SHOW VARIABLE WINDS, GENERALLY N-NE 10-15 KT WITH
SEAS 3-5 FT. COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN WATERS AND WILL REMAIN STALLED THERE, WHILE A WEAK LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TUE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
TO LESS THAN 10 KT OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT.
LIGHT NE-E WINDS START OFF TUE, BECOMING SE-S 5-15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWER AND STORM THREAT SOUTH OF HATTERAS WILL
DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK (TUE NIGHT THROUGH SAT): PERIODIC NOCTURNAL AND EARLY
MORNING RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE EACH
WEEKNIGHT, ALTHOUGH MOST LIKELY ODDS WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AHEAD OF STRONGER FRONT APPROACHING AREA WATERS. THIS
FRONT WILL ALSO BE THE NEXT FOCUS OF WIDESPREAD SCA CONDITIONS
WITH A LOW RISK BUT INCREASING RISK OF GALES ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CQD/MS
AVIATION...CQD/MS
MARINE...CQD/MS
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