323
FXUS62 KMHX 161045
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
645 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RISK OF RAINFALL WEDNESDAY HAS TRENDED DOWNWARD. TIMING OF LATE
WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS SLOWED TO THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LOWER RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS
EASTERN NC THROUGH THU WITH NEXT HIGHER-END THREAT THUR NIGHT
AND FRI AHEAD OF STRONG FRONT.
2) DANGEROUS HEAT LIKELY TO RETURN LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OVER ONSLOW BAY WITH MULTIPLE WEAK
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MIGRATING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE PASSING
LOWS WILL BE A FOCAL POINT FOR DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, WITH A SHOWER THREAT MAINLY SOUTH OF US 70
IN THE MORNING AND THEN AN ISO TO SCT THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THE
AFTERNOON AS A STRONGER LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD AND PULLS THE
STALLED BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE NC/VA BORDER LATE. MORNING SHOWER
THREAT LOOKS VERY MARGINAL WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICTING
CONSIDERABLY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYERS, HINTING THAT THE DAY MAY
START OVERCAST WITH PLENTY OF VIRGA AND ONLY SOME SPOTTY
RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW, IS OF HIGHER CONFIDENCE AND FAVORS
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF NC17. SCT SHOWER THREAT LINGERS
OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING WITH A QUICK MOVING SURFACE TROUGH
TRANSITING THE REGION AHEAD OF A PASSING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER STORMS REMAINS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER FRONT WHERE DEEPER SHEAR WILL
LIKELY BE PRESENT ALONG WITH STRONG INSTABILITY AS TEMPERATURES
SOAR BACK INTO THE 90S AND HUMIDITY REMAINS OPPRESSIVE. LIKE
PREVIOUS DAYS, BETTER KINEMATICS AND THUS HIGHER RISK OF
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE TO OUR NORTH IN THE MID-
ATLANTIC. MEDIUM- RANGE AI NWP GUIDANCE STILL HIGHLIGHTS MUCH
OF THE CAROLINAS FOR A SEVERE RISK DURING THIS PERIOD. THE
PRIMARY THREAT RISK IS DAMAGING WINDS, BUT OTHER HAZARDS REMAIN
ON THE TABLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
AGAIN TODAY WITH MORE OVERCAST SKIES AND ENC ON THE COOL SIDE OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS REPRIEVE WILL END TOMORROW AS THE
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS ALLUDED
EARLIER, INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LATE-WEEK
FRONT WILL BOOST LOW- LEVEL THICKNESSES AND KICK TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY THURSDAY. PAIRED WITH TDS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S, HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 105+.
THE PASSING FRONT MAY COOL THINGS DOWN BRIEFLY FOR THE WEEKEND,
BUT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL REMAIN A
CONCERN STARTING NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE THIS MORNING FOR ALL TAF TERMINALS
UNDER A THICK CIRRUS DECK, WHILE A SMALL SLIVER OF MVFR CIGS
CONTINUES TO PLAGUE MRH AND VICINITY. PRIMARY FOCUS TODAY WILL
BE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MIGRATE ALONG A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. THIS LOW WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A
MODEST SHOWER AND ISO THUNDERSTORM THREAT. STARTING TO SEE SOME
RETURNS ON RADAR ACROSS SC AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN NC BUT VERY FEW
OBS ARE REPORTING PRECIPITATION, STRENGTHENING IDEA THAT THIS
MORNING WILL SEE MORE VIRGA THAN VCSH. HIGHER CONFIDENCE REMAINS
IN A THUNDERSTORM THREAT, ESPECIALLY FOR TERMINALS FROM EWN TO
THE NORTH AND EAST WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SURFACE LOW. T-STORM THREAT WILL BE DIURNAL BUT COULD SEE SOME
ON-AND-OFF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE TROUGH QUICKLY
TRAVERSES THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN MORE WIDESPREAD
LOW STRATUS PRE-DAWN WED, AND ADDED LOW MVFR CIGS THIS CYCLE.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME PERIODS OF IFR, ESPECIALLY
FOR SITES SOUTH AND WEST OF EWN.
OUTLOOK: ISO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM RISK WILL EXTEND INTO
WEDNESDAY. MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE THREAT RETURNS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY WITH STRONGER FRONT. OVERNIGHT FOG
AND STRATUS THREAT POSSIBLE EACH MORNING. WEEKEND IS TRENDING
DRIER AND MORE QUIET WITH PREDOMINANT VFR EXPECTED.
MARINE
REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS SHOW A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITTING
OVER ONSLOW BAY, WITH EASTERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KT TO ITS NORTH AND
AROUND 10 KT TO ITS SOUTH. MAIN FOCUS TODAY WILL BE A WEAK WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE MIGRATING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, PULLING IT
NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AND USHERING IN MORE PREDOMINANT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AFTER SUNSET. A BRIEF BUT STRONG SURGE OF
WINDS IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FOR OUTER PORTIONS OF ONSLOW BAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE PASSING LOW, WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BEYOND
20 NM. THIS WILL LIKELY BOOST SEAS HERE BRIEFLY TO AROUND 6
FEET. ELSEWHERE, SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 3-5 FEET SOUTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS, 2-4 FEET NORTH.
OUTLOOK (WED THROUGH SAT): PERIODIC NOCTURNAL AND EARLY MORNING
RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE EACH WEEKNIGHT,
ALTHOUGH MOST LIKELY ODDS WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AHEAD OF STRONGER FRONT APPROACHING AREA WATERS. THIS FRONT WILL
ALSO BE THE NEXT FOCUS OF WIDESPREAD SCA CONDITIONS WITH AN
INCREASING RISK OF GALES ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MS
AVIATION...MS
MARINE...MS
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