556
FXUS62 KMHX 161346
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
946 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RISK OF RAINFALL WEDNESDAY HAS TRENDED DOWNWARD. TIMING OF LATE
WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS SLOWED TO THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CONDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING
2) LOWER RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS
EASTERN NC WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH NEXT HIGHER-END THREAT
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRI AHEAD OF STRONG FRONT.
3) DANGEROUS HEAT LIKELY TO RETURN LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS
A STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT. A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS NORTHEAST UP TO CAPE
HATTERAS, THEN TURNS SOUTHEAST OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. A SUBTLE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE CAROLINAS LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD ACT TO LIFT THE LOW AND FRONT
NORTH ACROSS THE INNER/OUTER BANKS OF ENC THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WHILE SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING OF THE LOW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED, THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL TURNING ALONG
THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND WARM FRONT TO SUPPORT AN AREA OF
MARGINAL 0-1KM SRH OF AROUND 75-100 M2/S2. MEANWHILE, SBCAPE OF
1000- 2000J/KG AND SEASONABLY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40KT+
SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION.
GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON IF DEEP CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT, ANY DEEP CONVECTION THAT MANAGES TO
DEVELOP SHOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SUPERCELLULAR IN
NATURE WITH AN ACCOMPANYING WIND, HAIL, AND TORNADO RISK. GIVEN
THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE ENVIRONMENT FOR TORNADOES, ANY
TORNADO THAT WERE TO DEVELOP SHOULD BE WEAK/SHORT-LIVED. THIS IS
DEFINITELY NOT A SLAM-DUNK SETUP, BUT IT'S WORTH MONITORING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER STORMS
REMAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER FRONT
WHERE DEEPER SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT ALONG WITH STRONG
INSTABILITY AS TEMPERATURES SOAR BACK INTO THE 90S AND HUMIDITY
REMAINS OPPRESSIVE. LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS, BETTER KINEMATICS AND
THUS HIGHER RISK OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE TO OUR
NORTH IN THE MID- ATLANTIC. MEDIUM- RANGE AI NWP GUIDANCE STILL
HIGHLIGHTS MUCH OF THE CAROLINAS FOR A SEVERE RISK DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE PRIMARY THREAT RISK IS DAMAGING WINDS, BUT OTHER
HAZARDS REMAIN ON THE TABLE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
AGAIN TODAY WITH MORE OVERCAST SKIES AND ENC ON THE COOL SIDE OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS REPRIEVE WILL END TOMORROW AS THE
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS ALLUDED
EARLIER, INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LATE-WEEK
FRONT WILL BOOST LOW- LEVEL THICKNESSES AND KICK TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY THURSDAY. PAIRED WITH TDS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S, HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 105+. THE
PASSING FRONT MAY COOL THINGS DOWN BRIEFLY FOR THE WEEKEND, BUT
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL REMAIN A
CONCERN STARTING NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE THIS MORNING FOR ALL TAF TERMINALS
UNDER A THICK CIRRUS DECK, WHILE A SMALL SLIVER OF MVFR CIGS
CONTINUES TO PLAGUE MRH AND VICINITY. PRIMARY FOCUS TODAY WILL
BE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MIGRATE ALONG A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. THIS LOW WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A
MODEST SHOWER AND ISO THUNDERSTORM THREAT. STARTING TO SEE SOME
RETURNS ON RADAR ACROSS SC AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN NC BUT VERY FEW
OBS ARE REPORTING PRECIPITATION, STRENGTHENING IDEA THAT THIS
MORNING WILL SEE MORE VIRGA THAN VCSH. HIGHER CONFIDENCE REMAINS
IN A THUNDERSTORM THREAT, ESPECIALLY FOR TERMINALS FROM EWN TO
THE NORTH AND EAST WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SURFACE LOW. T-STORM THREAT WILL BE DIURNAL BUT COULD SEE SOME
ON-AND-OFF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE TROUGH QUICKLY
TRAVERSES THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN MORE WIDESPREAD
LOW STRATUS PRE-DAWN WED, AND ADDED LOW MVFR CIGS THIS CYCLE.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME PERIODS OF IFR, ESPECIALLY
FOR SITES SOUTH AND WEST OF EWN.
OUTLOOK: ISO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM RISK WILL EXTEND INTO
WEDNESDAY. MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE THREAT RETURNS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY WITH STRONGER FRONT. OVERNIGHT FOG
AND STRATUS THREAT POSSIBLE EACH MORNING. WEEKEND IS TRENDING
DRIER AND MORE QUIET WITH PREDOMINANT VFR EXPECTED.
MARINE
REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS SHOW A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITTING
OVER ONSLOW BAY, WITH EASTERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KT TO ITS NORTH AND
AROUND 10 KT TO ITS SOUTH. MAIN FOCUS TODAY WILL BE A WEAK WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE MIGRATING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, PULLING IT
NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AND USHERING IN MORE PREDOMINANT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AFTER SUNSET. A BRIEF BUT STRONG SURGE OF
WINDS IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FOR OUTER PORTIONS OF ONSLOW BAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE PASSING LOW, WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BEYOND
20 NM. THIS WILL LIKELY BOOST SEAS HERE BRIEFLY TO AROUND 6
FEET. ELSEWHERE, SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 3-5 FEET SOUTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS, 2-4 FEET NORTH.
OUTLOOK (WED THROUGH SAT): PERIODIC NOCTURNAL AND EARLY MORNING
RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE EACH WEEKNIGHT,
ALTHOUGH MOST LIKELY ODDS WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AHEAD OF STRONGER FRONT APPROACHING AREA WATERS. THIS FRONT WILL
ALSO BE THE NEXT FOCUS OF WIDESPREAD SCA CONDITIONS WITH AN
INCREASING RISK OF GALES ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RM/MS
AVIATION...MS
MARINE...MS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page