479
FXUS62 KMHX 170031
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
831 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RISK OF RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HAS TRENDED DOWNWARD.
TIMING OF LATE WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS SLOWED TO THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CONDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING
2) LOWER RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS
EASTERN NC WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH NEXT HIGHER-END THREAT
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRI AHEAD OF STRONG FRONT.
3) DANGEROUS HEAT LIKELY TO RETURN LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS
A STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT. A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS NORTHEAST UP TO CAPE
HATTERAS, THEN TURNS SOUTHEAST OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. A SUBTLE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE CAROLINAS LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD ACT TO LIFT THE LOW AND FRONT
NORTH ACROSS THE INNER/OUTER BANKS OF ENC THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WHILE SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING OF THE LOW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED, THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL TURNING ALONG
THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND WARM FRONT TO SUPPORT AN AREA OF
MARGINAL 0-1KM SRH OF AROUND 75-100 M2/S2. MEANWHILE, SBCAPE OF
1000- 2000J/KG AND SEASONABLY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40KT+
SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION.
GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON IF DEEP CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT, ANY DEEP CONVECTION THAT MANAGES TO
DEVELOP SHOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SUPERCELLULAR IN
NATURE WITH AN ACCOMPANYING WIND, HAIL, AND TORNADO RISK. GIVEN
THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE ENVIRONMENT FOR TORNADOES, ANY
TORNADO THAT WERE TO DEVELOP SHOULD BE WEAK/SHORT-LIVED. THIS IS
DEFINITELY NOT A SLAM-DUNK SETUP, BUT IT'S WORTH MONITORING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER STORMS
REMAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER FRONT
WHERE DEEPER SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT ALONG WITH STRONG
INSTABILITY AS TEMPERATURES SOAR BACK INTO THE 90S AND HUMIDITY
REMAINS OPPRESSIVE. LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS, BETTER KINEMATICS AND
THUS HIGHER RISK OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE TO OUR
NORTH IN THE MID- ATLANTIC. MEDIUM- RANGE AI NWP GUIDANCE STILL
HIGHLIGHTS MUCH OF THE CAROLINAS FOR A SEVERE RISK DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE PRIMARY THREAT RISK IS DAMAGING WINDS, BUT OTHER
HAZARDS REMAIN ON THE TABLE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
AGAIN TODAY WITH MORE OVERCAST SKIES AND ENC ON THE COOL SIDE OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS REPRIEVE WILL END TOMORROW AS THE
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS ALLUDED
EARLIER, INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LATE-WEEK
FRONT WILL BOOST LOW- LEVEL THICKNESSES AND KICK TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY THURSDAY. PAIRED WITH TDS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S, HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 105+. THE
PASSING FRONT MAY COOL THINGS DOWN BRIEFLY FOR THE WEEKEND, BUT
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL REMAIN A
CONCERN STARTING NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
PRED VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS RTES EARLY THIS EVENING. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS RTES THIS EVENING WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THREAT CONTINUING, BUT SHOULD
REMAIN NE OF THE TAF SITES AFTER 02Z. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS, HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR
RAIN AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
RTES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SW AROUND 5-10 KT AND COULD SEE
GUSTS AROUND 15 KT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: MORE WIDESPREAD TSRA THREAT RETURNS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY WITH A STRONGER FRONT. OVERNIGHT FOG AND
STRATUS THREAT POSSIBLE EACH MORNING. WEEKEND IS TRENDING DRIER
AND MORE QUIET WITH PREDOMINANT VFR EXPECTED.
MARINE
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
ALONG THE TRACK OF THE LOW THERE WILL BE A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH WATERSPOUTS AND STRONG WINDS TO 40KT. SOME HAIL MAY OCCUR
AS WELL. IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW, BUILDING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED, WITH A PERIOD OF 25KT WINDS POSSIBLE FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
GREATEST RISK OF 25KT WINDS WILL BE OVER A RELATIVELY SMALLER
AREA OF THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS, THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY NOT PLANNED. ELSEWHERE, EAST WINDS OF
5-15KT WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AS THE LOW PASSES, THEN BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY BY TONIGHT. SEAS OF 2-3 FT ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF
CAPE HATTERAS THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH HIGHER SEAS OF 3-5 FT SOUTH
OF HATTERAS.
OUTLOOK (WED THROUGH SAT): PERIODIC NOCTURNAL AND EARLY MORNING
RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE EACH WEEKNIGHT,
ALTHOUGH MOST LIKELY ODDS WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AHEAD OF STRONGER FRONT APPROACHING AREA WATERS. THIS FRONT WILL
ALSO BE THE NEXT FOCUS OF WIDESPREAD SCA CONDITIONS WITH AN
INCREASING RISK OF GALES ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RM/MS
AVIATION...RM/SK/MS
MARINE...RM/MS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page