908
FXUS62 KMHX 171038
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
638 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MARGINAL (LEVEL 1/5) RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EFFECT
TOMORROW FOR ALL OF EASTERN NC.
GALE WATCH AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR AREA WATERS FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LOWER RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS
EASTERN NC WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH NEXT HIGHER-END THREAT
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRI AHEAD OF STRONG FRONT.
2) INCREASING HEAT RISK TOMORROW ALONG WITH MARGINAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. HEAT MAKES A RETURN NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...CLOUDY AND INCREASINGLY SOGGY MORNING UNFOLDING
ACROSS EASTERN NC THIS HOUR. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SURFACE
LOW OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA LIFTING NORTHWARD AND PULLING A WARM
FRONT NORTH OF HIGHWAY 264, WITH A FEW STUBBORNLY PERSISTENT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RIDING THE BOUNDARY NORTHWARD. FARTHER
SOUTH, EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MIGRATING ACROSS AN AXIS OF DEEP
MOISTURE STREAMING OFF OF PTC 1 IN THE WESTERN GULF OF AMERICA
IS AIDING IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER SC, EXPECTED TO MIGRATE
ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING AND EXITING THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL ADD A COUPLE TENTHS OF PRECIPITATION TO YESTERDAY'S
TOTALS.
PRIMARY FOCUS THIS FORECAST REMAINS A THREAT FOR STRONGER
STORMS, FOCUSED ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. ADDITIONALLY, THE REMNANTS OF PTC 1 ARE FORECAST TO
SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE GULF STATES TOMORROW AND INTO FRIDAY.
DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW ARE LIKELY TO BE DRY WITH THUNDERSTORM
THREAT INCREASING OVERNIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE APPROACHES.
EXPECTING A MODEST UPTICK IN EFFECTIVE SHEAR THURS PM INTO FRI
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PTC REMNANTS, AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH A HEALTHY LLJ OF 35-40 KT. THIS, COMBINED
WITH PLENTY OF MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500-2000 J/KG, WILL PROVIDE
A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SOME ORGANIZED STORMS
CAPABLE PRIMARILY OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS
DO DEPICT SOME MODEST LOW-LEVEL WIND VEERING, HOWEVER, WHICH
POINTS TO A NON-ZERO BRIEF TORNADO THREAT AS WELL. SPC HAS OUR
ENTIRE AREA IN A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1/5) RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD HEAT AND
HUMIDITY BEGIN THEIR RETURN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S TODAY AND MID TO UPPER 90S TOMORROW. WITH TDS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S, HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH 105 IN
MANY AREAS AND A HEAT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR
TOMORROW. ADDITIONALLY, WITH A NOTICEABLE UPTICK IN WINDS AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING FRONT (GUSTS 25-30 MPH) AND RHS 35-40% THERE
IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, PRIMARILY
OVER THE INNER COASTAL PLAIN WHERE LESS RAIN HAS BEEN PRESENT.
THE PASSING FRONT WILL COOL THE REGION DOWN BRIEFLY FOR THE
WEEKEND, BUT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL
REMAIN A CONCERN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES ONCE
AGAIN REACHING 100+.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MIXED BAG OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS RTES THIS MORNING EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE REGION CONTINUES TO DRIVE POORLY
ORGANIZED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NC. THE BACK END OF THIS
CLUSTER IS NOW APPROACHING A LINE FROM ROUGHLY OCW TO DPL AND
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE DRYING OUT QUICKLY FROM THIS LINE
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, WITH VFR BECOMING
DOMINANT BY 15-16Z AT THE LATEST. TYPICAL DIURNAL CU WITH SW
WINDS TODAY GUSTING TO 15 KT AT TIMES. MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TONIGHT BUT WITH A STEADY INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST WINDS
AS STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST - GUSTY CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY TO BEGIN AROUND DAWN AND PEAK THURS AFTN WITH GUSTS
25+ KT LIKELY.
OUTLOOK: MORE WIDESPREAD TSRA THREAT RETURNS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY WITH A STRONGER FRONT. OVERNIGHT FOG AND
STRATUS THREAT POSSIBLE EACH MORNING. WEEKEND IS TRENDING DRIER
AND MORE QUIET WITH PREDOMINANT VFR EXPECTED.
MARINE
SEEING AN UPTICK IN WESTERLY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FROM THE WEST, WITH A FEW INFREQUENT
GUSTS TO 25 KT FOR THE WATERS FROM CAPE HATTERAS SOUTH. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO EASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES
OFFSHORE. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY WITH AN
UPTICK IN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS ALL WATERS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED TOWARDS GALES
THIS MORNING, SHOWING PROBABILITIES OF UP TO 70%+ FOR THE OUTER
WATERS EAST OF DUCK SOUTH TO CENTRAL WATERS NORTH OF OCRACOKE
INLET. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT PROBABILITIES ARE LOWER BUT NOT
ZERO FOR A LARGER SWATH OF WATERS EXTENDING INTO OUTER ONSLOW
BAY AS WELL AS THE PAMLICO SOUND, AND THIS IS PARTICULARLY TRUE
WHEN ASSESSING HI-RES GUIDANCE. FOR NOW, GALE WATCHES HAVE BEEN
HOISTED WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST WITH SCA ELSEWHERE EXTENDING
TO INLAND RIVERS AND SOUNDS. HOWEVER, GALE HEADLINES MAY BE
EXPANDED FURTHER IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
OUTLOOK (THU THROUGH SUN): PERIODIC NOCTURNAL AND EARLY MORNING
RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE EACH WEEKNIGHT,
ALTHOUGH MOST LIKELY ODDS WILL BE TOMORROW NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
BOATING CONDITIONS IMPROVE OVER THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE PASSING
FRONT, WITH NEXT THREAT WINDOW FOR MARINERS EARLY NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
AMZ131-136-137-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR AMZ150.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
FOR AMZ152-154-180-182-184.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
AMZ156-158.
DISCUSSION...MS
AVIATION...MS
MARINE...MS
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