393
FXUS62 KMHX 180701
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
301 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM FOR ALL COUNTIES
OUTSIDE OF THE OUTER BANKS.
KEY MESSAGES
1)INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AHEAD OF STRONG FRONT AND THE REMNANTS OF POST TROPICAL STORM
ARTHUR.
2) HEAT RISK TODAY ALONG WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS WINDY AND
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
MARINE) GALE WARNINGS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT TODAY
INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...TODAY WILL BE DRY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH A
PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN CANADA. AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING, RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE, AIDED BY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF POST TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR. LATE THIS EVENING
INSTABILITY WILL BE DECENT WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 1500-2000
J/KG RANGE ALTHOUGH SHEAR WILL BE FAIRLY LOW BUT INCREASING
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES ABOVE 100
M2/S2 WILL MEAN THAT THE PRIMARY THREATS FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER
WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR WATERSPOUT. AS SUCH, SPC HAS THE AREA IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HIGH TEMPERATURE THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. WITH TDS IN THE LOW 70S, HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL HOVER PLUS OR MINUS 105F IN MANY AREAS. THEREFORE
HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM FOR
ALL COUNTIES OUTSIDE OF THE OUTER BANKS. AS FAR AS FIRE WEATHER
IS CONCERNED, WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL PICK UP
(GUSTS 25-30 MPH) AND RHS 35-45% PAIRED WITH DRY FUELS WILL
PRESENT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY. AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF ENC EXCEPT FOR ONSLOW AND
CARTERET COUNTIES FOR THURSDAY.
THE PASSING FRONT WILL COOL THE REGION DOWN BRIEFLY FOR THE
WEEKEND, BUT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL
REMAIN A CONCERN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES ONCE
AGAIN REACHING 100 DEGREES+.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAINLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A LOW END CHANCE OF SOME LOW
STRATUS FORMING, THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. THERE WILL BE A
STEADY INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST WINDS AS STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THURSDAY MORNING, PEAKING IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 25+ KT LIKELY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
CROSSWIND COMPONENT FOR KEWN RUNWAY 14R/32L.
OUTLOOK: MORE WIDESPREAD TSRA THREAT AND LOWER CEILINGS RETURNS
LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY WITH A STRONGER FRONT.
OVERNIGHT FOG AND STRATUS THREAT POSSIBLE EACH MORNING LATE THIS
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. WEEKEND IS TRENDING DRIER AND MORE QUIET
WITH PREDOMINANT VFR EXPECTED.
MARINE
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY ACROSS
ALL WATERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GALE WARNINGS
REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH THIS UPDATE. AT THIS TIME WINDS INSIDE THE
SOUNDS MAY STAY JUST BELOW GALE CRITERIA BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THE OBSERVATIONS FOR A POTENTIAL EXPANSION OF GALE WARNINGS INTO
THE PAMLICO SOUND.
WITH THE REMNANTS OF POST TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY, THE TRACK OF THE REMNANT LOW WILL BE WORTH
MONITORING. AN INLAND TRACK, WHICH IS THE CURRENT EXPECTATION,
COULD BRING A WATERSPOUT THREAT TO WATERS FRIDAY IN ADDITION TO
THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK (THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN): PERIODIC NOCTURNAL AND EARLY
MORNING RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE EACH
WEEKNIGHT, ALTHOUGH MOST LIKELY ODDS WILL BE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. BOATING CONDITIONS IMPROVE OVER THE WEEKEND BEHIND
THE PASSING FRONT, WITH NEXT THREAT WINDOW FOR MARINERS EARLY
NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 06/18 (THURSDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 96/2014 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 90/1975 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 99/1920 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 91/2015 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 101/1944 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 95/1984 (NCA ASOS)
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-196-199-204-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR AMZ131-136-137-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY
FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR AMZ150.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
AMZ152-154-156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ158.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
AMZ180-182-184-186-188.
DISCUSSION...RTE/RJ
AVIATION...CQD/RJ
MARINE...RTE/RJ
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