410
FXUS62 KMHX 182250
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
650 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOW PRESSURE HAS TRENDED A BIT SLOWER FOR FRIDAY MORNING.
INCREASED WIND GUSTS AND WAVE HEIGHTS INTO FRIDAY. INCREASED
POPS FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY. INCREASED QPF FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
2)INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AHEAD OF STRONG FRONT AND THE REMNANTS OF POST TROPICAL
STORM ARTHUR.
3) HEAT RISK TODAY ALONG WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS WINDY
AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
MARINE) GALE WARNINGS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT TODAY
INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...THE OUTFLOW FROM LAST NIGHT'S STORMS WELL TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST ARE APPROACHING THE REGION, WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT. MODELS HAVE HANDLED THIS VERY POORLY
TODAY, WITH ESSENTIALLY ALL GUIDANCE DRY AT 12Z. SINCE THEN
THOUGH, CURRENT RADAR DATA AND THE 15Z RRFS RUN HAVE SUGGESTED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND LINGERING THROUGH THE EVENING. MEANWHILE, A WEAK WAVE MOVES
IN FROM THE SOUTH, BRINGING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE EVENING FROM THE SOUTH. OUTSIDE OF THE RRFS, GUIDANCE IS
STILL NOT SHOWING THIS, SO WITH DECREASED CONFIDENCE ON HOW LONG
THE SHOWERS WILL STICK AROUND, ELECTED TO CAP POPS AT 30%.
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY, DCAPES OVER 700 J/KG, AND MODEST DEEP
SHEAR COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS IN THE STRONGEST OF STORMS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST,
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH, RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FRIDAY
EARLY MORNING ONWARDS AS A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE
REMNANTS OF POST TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR MOVE THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS. THE TROPICAL NATURE OF MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION BRINGS PWATS NEAR 2.2", WHICH IS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
EASTERN NC. IN ADDITION, WE HAVE MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
30-40 KNOTS AND LOW LEVEL TURNING OF THE WINDS ALONG AND TO THE
EAST OF THE PATH OF THE LOW. ALL THIS RESULTS IN A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT FOR EASTERN NC FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE HAZARDS OF NOTE ARE BRIEF TORNADOES, WATERSPOUTS,
AND GUSTY WINDS. IN ADDITION, TROPICAL DOWNPOURS WITH HIGH RAIN
RATES CAN BE EXPECTED. THE QUICK MOVING NATURE OF THE LOW
PRECLUDES ANY SUBSTANTIAL FLASH FLOODING CONCERN. SPC HAS THE
AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR BOTH TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY PM, FROM NW TO SE. WITH THE
LOW MOVING THROUGH EARLIER IN THE DAY, WE WILL BE IN A NW FLOW
REGIME AND HAVE SOME DRY AIR ADVECTING IN AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
ALOFT. WITH THAT IN MIND, SHOULD ANY SHOWERS AND TSTORMS FORM
ALONG THE FRONT THE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AT BEST. IF THE UPDRAFTS ARE ABLE TO OVERCOME THIS DRY
LAYER, WE WILL HAVE DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES, DEEP SHEAR,
AND SOME DCAPE TO PLAY WITH AND GUSTY WINDS WOULD BECOME A
CONCERN. FOR NOW THOUGH, GIVEN THE DRY LAYER CAPPED POPS AT
AROUND 25% ALONG THIS FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...HIGH TEMPERATURE THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. WITH TDS IN THE LOW 70S, HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL HOVER PLUS OR MINUS 105F IN MANY AREAS. THEREFORE
HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THIS HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM FOR ALL
COUNTIES OUTSIDE OF THE OUTER BANKS. AS FAR AS FIRE WEATHER IS
CONCERNED, WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL PICK UP
(GUSTS 25-30 MPH) AND RHS 35-45% PAIRED WITH DRY FUELS WILL
PRESENT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY. AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF ENC EXCEPT FOR ONSLOW AND
CARTERET COUNTIES FOR TODAY.
THE PASSING FRONT WILL COOL THE REGION DOWN BRIEFLY FOR THE
WEEKEND, BUT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL
REMAIN A CONCERN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES ONCE
AGAIN REACHING 100 DEGREES+.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
PRED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT, WITH CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING FRIDAY MORNING. TONIGHT, LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE SW, CROSSING THROUGH THE REGION IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING LOW CEILINGS AND VIS
WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR LIKELY WITH
PERIODS OF IFR. DESPITE THE MORE WARM NATURE OF THE RAIN
PROCESSES, THUNDER CAN'T BE DISCOUNTED BUT WEAK MID- LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY ROBUST LIGHTNING PRODUCING
STORMS TO EXIST. WILL CONTINUE VCTS MENTION FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY AND DRY AIR MOVES IN.
OUTLOOK: OVERNIGHT FOG AND STRATUS THREAT POSSIBLE EACH MORNING
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. WEEKEND IS TRENDING DRIER AND
MORE QUIET WITH PREDOMINANT VFR EXPECTED.
MARINE
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY ACROSS
ALL WATERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW FROM THE REMNANTS OF
ARTHUR IN ADDITION TO A COLD FRONT. GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT WITH THIS UPDATE, WITH AN EXPANSION FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO SURF CITY FOR FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES
THROUGH. AT THIS TIME WINDS INSIDE THE SOUNDS MAY STAY JUST
BELOW GALE CRITERIA BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE OBSERVATIONS FOR
A POTENTIAL EXPANSION OF GALE WARNINGS OR A MWS FOR THE PAMLICO
SOUND.
WITH THE REMNANTS OF POST TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY, THE TRACK OF THE REMNANT LOW WILL BE WORTH
MONITORING. AN INLAND TRACK, WHICH IS THE CURRENT EXPECTATION,
COULD BRING A WATERSPOUT THREAT TO WATERS FRIDAY IN ADDITION TO
THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK (THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN): PERIODIC NOCTURNAL AND EARLY
MORNING RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE EACH
WEEKNIGHT. BOATING CONDITIONS IMPROVE OVER THE WEEKEND BEHIND
THE PASSING FRONT, WITH NEXT THREAT WINDOW FOR MARINERS EARLY
NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 06/18 (THURSDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 96/2014 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 90/1975 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 99/1920 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 91/2015 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 101/1944 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 95/1984 (NCA ASOS)
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ029-044>047-
079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-
196-199-204-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ131-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-180-182-
184-186-188.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ158.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ158.
DISCUSSION...RTE/RJ
AVIATION...CQD/RJ
MARINE...RTE/RJ
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