334
FXUS62 KMHX 191026
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
626 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOW PRESSURE HAS TRENDED A BIT SLOWER FOR THIS MORNING.
INCREASED WIND GUSTS AND WAVE HEIGHTS THROUGH TODAY. INCREASED
POPS FOR TODAY. INCREASED QPF FOR TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1)INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AHEAD OF STRONG FRONT AND THE REMNANTS OF POST TROPICAL
STORM ARTHUR.
MARINE) GALE WARNINGS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT TODAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
WITH THE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDER TO INCREASE THIS MORNING
AND THEN AGAIN DURING PEAK HEATING. LATER ON A COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY AND INCREASING WIND SHEAR WILL LEAD TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER. SPC CURRENTLY HAS THE AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND AN
ISOLATED TORNADO BEING THE MOST LIKELY RISKS. IN ADDITION
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY IN TRAINING
STORMS. AS SUCH, WPC ALSO HAS THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
DESPITE THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN, THE AREA REMAINS
ENTRENCHED IN A DROUGHT AND TODAYS RAINFALL WILL LIKELY NOT BE
ENOUGH TO TURN THINGS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH REGARD TO DROUGHT, BUT
IT COULD BE A START. PARTICULARLY BECAUSE THE REMNANTS OF POST
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR ARE MERGING WITH THE FRONT, BRINGING A WET
AIRMASS TO THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OVER TWO INCHES.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON, FROM NW TO
SE. WITH THE LOW MOVING THROUGH EARLIER IN THE DAY, WE WILL BE
IN A NW FLOW REGIME AND HAVE SOME DRY AIR ADVECTING IN AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT ALOFT. WITH THAT IN MIND, SHOULD ANY SHOWERS AND
TSTORMS FORM ALONG THE FRONT THE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT BEST. IF THE UPDRAFTS ARE ABLE TO
OVERCOME THIS DRY LAYER, WE WILL HAVE DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES, DEEP SHEAR, AND SOME DCAPE TO PLAY WITH AND GUSTY WINDS
WOULD BECOME A CONCERN. FOR NOW THOUGH, GIVEN THE DRY LAYER
CAPPED POPS AT AROUND 25% ALONG THIS FRONT.
EXPECT DRIER AND A BIT COOLER WEATHER FOR SATURDAY BUT THEN HOT
AND DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR SUNDAY BEFORE THE NEXT RAIN CHANCES
COME ON MONDAY.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS MOVING INTO WESTERN EDGES OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SW TODAY, CROSSING THROUGH THE REGION IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL BRING LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. WIDESPREAD SUB- VFR
LIKELY WITH PERIODS OF IFR. DESPITE THE MORE WARM NATURE OF THE
RAIN PROCESSES, THUNDER CAN'T BE DISCOUNTED BUT WEAK MID- LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY ROBUST LIGHTNING
PRODUCING STORMS TO EXIST. WILL CONTINUE VCTS MENTION FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY AND DRY AIR MOVES IN.
OUTLOOK: OVERNIGHT FOG AND STRATUS THREAT POSSIBLE EACH MORNING
INTO THE WEEKEND. WEEKEND IS TRENDING DRIER AND MORE QUIET WITH
PREDOMINANT VFR EXPECTED. NEXT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON MONDAY.
MARINE
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY ACROSS ALL WATERS AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING LOW FROM THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR IN ADDITION TO A
COLD FRONT. GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH THIS UPDATE,
WITH AN EXPANSION FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO SURF
CITY TODAY AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH. AT THIS TIME WINDS INSIDE
THE SOUNDS MAY STAY JUST BELOW GALE CRITERIA BUT WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THE OBSERVATIONS FOR A POTENTIAL EXPANSION OF GALE
WARNINGS OR A MWS FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND.
WITH THE REMNANTS OF POST TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA, THE TRACK OF THE REMNANT LOW WILL BE WORTH
MONITORING. AN INLAND TRACK, WHICH IS THE CURRENT EXPECTATION,
COULD BRING A WATERSPOUT THREAT TO WATERS TODAY IN ADDITION TO
THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK (FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON): BOATING CONDITIONS IMPROVE
OVER THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE PASSING FRONT, WITH NEXT THREAT
WINDOW FOR MARINERS EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-196-
199-204-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ136-
137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-154-156-
180-182-184-186-188.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ158.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR AMZ158.
DISCUSSION...RTE/RJ
AVIATION...RTE/CQD/RJ
MARINE...RTE/RJ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page