138
FXUS62 KMHX 191900
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
300 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DECREASED POST-LOW PRESSURE PRECIP CHANCES THIS EVENING.
LOWERED OBX TEMPS IN THE SHORT AND LONG TERM.
CANCEL SCA'S FOR THE SOUNDS AND RIVERS. CONVERTED GALE WARNINGS
TO SCA'S FOR THE COASTAL WATERS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRYING TREND AFTER TODAY'S RAINS FROM POST-TROPICAL STORM
ARTHUR.
2) SCATTERED TYPICAL SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER
AND STORM CHANCES RETURN ON MONDAY THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...POST-TROPPICAL STORM ARTHUR'S REMNANTS MOVING
OFFSHORE OF NC THIS AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE IN IT'S WAKE WILL
LIMIT ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FOR THE MOST PART. MAY BE SOME
RENEGADE SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY NERN ZONES, BUT MAJORITY OF ENC
WILL BE DRY REST OF THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS RETURN FOR THIS WEEKEND. TEMPS
SHOULD BE BACK TO NEAR CLIMO, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S, AND LOWS IN
THE MID/UPR 60S INTERIOR TO LOW 70S BEACHES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHILE
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SWINGS EWRD ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST,
BUT AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR, THE FRONT GETS HUNG UP
INLAND FROM THE COAST. RETURNING RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
TANDEM WITH THE INLAND FRONT AND SEA BREEZE WILL ACT TO KICK OFF
SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY INLAND ZONES ALONG
AND WEST OF THE SEA BREEZE. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN AS
WELL, THOUGH HEAT INDICES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE 105 DEGREE
THRESHOLD ATTM. THE DAILY SHOWER/STORM CHANCES REMAIN THROUGH
MID WEEK WITH NO HIGHER THAN CHC/SCT MENTION (30-50%). LITTLE
SHEAR IN PLACE SO ANY STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SUB SEVERE. TEMPS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO. BREEZIEST DAY LOOKS TO BE MONDAY
WITH AFOREMENTIONED FRONT TO THE WEST AND TIGHTENED THERMAL
GRADIENT.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY AND DRY AIR MOVES
IN. HANGING ONTO A MVFR DECK FOR ANOTHER HOUR BEFORE THE DRY AIR
INFILTRATES THE LOWER LEVELS. MO SKC TONIGHT WITH LIGHT/VRBL
WINDS. LIGHT WINDS BELOW 10 KT WILL CONT ON SAT WITH HIGH PRES
IN THE VICINITY.
OUTLOOK (SUN THROUGH WED): OVERNIGHT FOG AND STRATUS THREAT
POSSIBLE EACH MORNING. WEEKEND WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH PRES AND
PREDOMINANT VFR EXPECTED. NEXT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON EVENING IN FORM OF TYPICAL DIURNAL THUNDERSHOWERS. THE
DAILY SHOWER/STORM THREAT WILL CONT THROUGH MID WEEK.
MARINE
WILL DROP THE GALES AND CONVERT TO SCA'S FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
AS WINDS HAVE SLACKED BEHIND THE EARLIER CONVECTIVE LINE THAT
MOVED THROUGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRES.
WINDS WILL TURN NWRLY THEN NERLY OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW. FOR THIS WEEKEND, LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS BRING PLEASANT
BOATING CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRES IN VICINITY.
OUTLOOK (SUN THROUGH WED): ON MON, S TO SWRLY GRADIENT INC DUE
TO FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND TIGHTENING OF THE THERMAL
GRADIENT. THIS WILL KICK UP NEARSHORE WINDS TO 25+ KT WITH SCA'S
LIKELY NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE MARINE DOMAIN INCLUDING INLAND
SOUNDS AND RIVERS. BY TUE WINDS AND SEAS RETURN TO BELOW SCA
LEVELS, WITH JUST A TYPICAL UPTICK IN LATE AFTERNOON, EARLY
EVENING WINDS DUE TO DAILY WEAK THERMAL GRADIENT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-
196-199-204-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
154-156-158.
DISCUSSION...TL
AVIATION...TL
MARINE...TL
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