737
FXUS62 KMHX 192339
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
739 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED PATCHY FOG MENTIONS INLAND FOR TONIGHT, AND INCREASED POPS
ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRYING TREND AFTER TODAY'S RAINS FROM POST-TROPICAL STORM
ARTHUR.
2) PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT
3) SCATTERED TYPICAL SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER
AND STORM CHANCES RETURN ON MONDAY THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...POST-TROPPICAL STORM ARTHUR'S REMNANTS MOVING
OFFSHORE OF NC THIS AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE IN IT'S WAKE WILL
LIMIT ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FOR THE MOST PART. FRONT IS MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION, WITH SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALONG IT. FRONT SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY AROUND 10PM, WITH
A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS RETURN FOR THIS WEEKEND. TEMPS
SHOULD BE BACK TO NEAR CLIMO, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S, AND LOWS IN
THE MID/UPR 60S INTERIOR TO LOW 70S BEACHES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A SWATH OF 1"+ OF RAINFALL HAS BEEN OBSERVED
TODAY GENERALLY WEST OF HWY 17 IN MARTIN, PITT, AND GREENE
COUNTIES. BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING, RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION, AND WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. WHILE THE COASTAL PLAIN HAS
BEEN IN A DROUGHT, THE RECENT RAINFALL COULD MOISTEN OUR LOW
LEVELS ENOUGH FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM IF WINDS GO CALM.
ADDED PATCHY FOG MENTIONS TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE
DESPITE MODELS NOT REALLY BEHIND THAT OUTCOME.
KEY MESSAGE 3...HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SWINGS EWRD ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE
SOUTHEAST, BUT AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR, THE FRONT GETS
HUNG UP INLAND FROM THE COAST. RETURNING RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IN TANDEM WITH THE INLAND FRONT AND SEA BREEZE WILL ACT TO KICK
OFF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY INLAND ZONES
ALONG AND WEST OF THE SEA BREEZE. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
RETURN AS WELL, THOUGH HEAT INDICES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE 105
DEGREE THRESHOLD ATTM. THE DAILY SHOWER/STORM CHANCES REMAIN
THROUGH MID WEEK WITH NO HIGHER THAN CHC/SCT MENTION (30-50%).
LITTLE SHEAR IN PLACE SO ANY STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SUB SEVERE.
TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO. BREEZIEST DAY LOOKS TO BE
MONDAY WITH AFOREMENTIONED FRONT TO THE WEST AND TIGHTENED
THERMAL GRADIENT.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THIS EVENING WITH A FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. MINIMAL WIND SHIFT BEHIND IT, BUT
SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE BEING OBSERVED
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH. FRONT SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE
BY 10PM, WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. THE RIDGING COULD
BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO CALM WINDS INLAND, WHICH WILL BE
PAIRED WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL
TODAY, WE COULD HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT FOR PATCHY
FOG TO FORM AFTER 6Z. BEST CHANCES OF THIS ARE FOR MARTIN,
PITT, AND LENOIR COUNTIES WHERE 1"+ HAS FALLEN TODAY. LIGHT
WINDS BELOW 10 KT WILL CONT ON SAT WITH HIGH PRES IN THE
VICINITY.
OUTLOOK (SUN THROUGH WED): OVERNIGHT FOG AND STRATUS THREAT
POSSIBLE EACH MORNING. WEEKEND WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH PRES AND
PREDOMINANT VFR EXPECTED. NEXT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON EVENING IN FORM OF TYPICAL DIURNAL THUNDERSHOWERS. THE
DAILY SHOWER/STORM THREAT WILL CONT THROUGH MID WEEK.
MARINE
WILL DROP THE GALES AND CONVERT TO SCA'S FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
AS WINDS HAVE SLACKED BEHIND THE EARLIER CONVECTIVE LINE THAT
MOVED THROUGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRES.
WINDS WILL TURN NWRLY THEN NERLY OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW. FOR THIS WEEKEND, LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS BRING PLEASANT
BOATING CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRES IN VICINITY.
OUTLOOK (SUN THROUGH WED): ON MON, S TO SWRLY GRADIENT INC DUE
TO FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND TIGHTENING OF THE THERMAL
GRADIENT. THIS WILL KICK UP NEARSHORE WINDS TO 25+ KT WITH SCA'S
LIKELY NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE MARINE DOMAIN INCLUDING INLAND
SOUNDS AND RIVERS. BY TUE WINDS AND SEAS RETURN TO BELOW SCA
LEVELS, WITH JUST A TYPICAL UPTICK IN LATE AFTERNOON, EARLY
EVENING WINDS DUE TO DAILY WEAK THERMAL GRADIENT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-
196-199-204-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
154-156-158.
DISCUSSION...TL/RJ
AVIATION...TL/RJ
MARINE...TL
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