283
FXUS62 KMHX 200725
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
325 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SOME PATCHY FOG BEGINNING TO PRESENT ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING
2) SCATTERED TYPICAL SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER
AND STORM CHANCES RETURN ON MONDAY THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A FEW AREAS OF FOG HAVE BEGUN TO FORM ON
NIGHTTIME VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING ALONG HIGHWAY
17 AND IN SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS. A SWATH OF 1"+
OF RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY GENERALLY WEST OF HWY 17 IN
MARTIN, PITT, AND GREENE COUNTIES. RIDGING IS BUILDING INTO THE
REGION, AND WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. WHILE THE COASTAL PLAIN HAS
BEEN IN A DROUGHT, THE RECENT RAINFALL COULD MOISTEN OUR LOW
LEVELS ENOUGH FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM IF WINDS GO CALM,
WHICH HAS ALREADY OCCURRED IN SOME LOCATIONS. THIS FOG WILL
GENERALLY BE FLEETING AND TRANSITORY IN NATURE, BUT ITS WORTH
PAYING ATTENTION TO AS WE GET CLOSER TO SUNRISE TO SEE HOW LONG
IT MAY STICK AROUND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SWINGS EWRD ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE
SOUTHEAST, BUT AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR, THE FRONT GETS
HUNG UP INLAND FROM THE COAST. RETURNING RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IN TANDEM WITH THE INLAND FRONT AND SEA BREEZE WILL ACT TO KICK
OFF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY INLAND ZONES
ALONG AND WEST OF THE SEA BREEZE. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
RETURN AS WELL, THOUGH HEAT INDICES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE 105
DEGREE THRESHOLD ATTM. THE DAILY SHOWER/STORM CHANCES REMAIN
THROUGH MID WEEK WITH NO HIGHER THAN CHC/SCT MENTION (30-50%).
LITTLE SHEAR IN PLACE SO ANY STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SUB SEVERE.
TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO. BREEZIEST DAY LOOKS TO BE
MONDAY WITH AFOREMENTIONED FRONT TO THE WEST AND TIGHTENED
THERMAL GRADIENT.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THIS MORNING AS
RIDGING BRINGS A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO CALM WINDS INLAND, WHICH
WILL BE PAIRED WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH THE RECENT
RAINFALL TODAY, WE COULD HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT
FOR PATCHY FOG TO FORM AFTER 6Z. BEST CHANCES OF THIS ARE FOR
MARTIN, PITT, AND LENOIR, AND DUPLIN COUNTIES WHERE 1"+ HAS
FALLEN TODAY. LIGHT WINDS BELOW 10 KT WILL CONT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY.
OUTLOOK (SUN THROUGH WED): OVERNIGHT FOG AND STRATUS THREAT
POSSIBLE EACH MORNING. WEEKEND WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH PRES AND
PREDOMINANT VFR EXPECTED. NEXT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON EVENING IN FORM OF TYPICAL DIURNAL THUNDERSHOWERS. THE
DAILY SHOWER/STORM THREAT WILL CONT THROUGH MID WEEK.
MARINE
ALL MARINE HAZARD PRODUCTS HAVE EXPIRED AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL TURN NWRLY THEN NERLY THIS MORNING BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW. FOR THIS WEEKEND, LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS BRING
PLEASANT BOATING CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRES IN VICINITY.
OUTLOOK (SUN THROUGH WED): ON MON, S TO SWRLY GRADIENT INC DUE
TO FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND TIGHTENING OF THE THERMAL
GRADIENT. THIS WILL KICK UP NEARSHORE WINDS TO 25+ KT WITH SCA'S
LIKELY NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE MARINE DOMAIN INCLUDING INLAND
SOUNDS AND RIVERS. BY TUE WINDS AND SEAS RETURN TO BELOW SCA
LEVELS, WITH JUST A TYPICAL UPTICK IN LATE AFTERNOON, EARLY
EVENING WINDS DUE TO DAILY WEAK THERMAL GRADIENT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RTE/TL/RJ
AVIATION...RTE/TL/RJ
MARINE...RTE/TL
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