590
FXUS62 KMHX 201009
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
609 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
EARLIER PATCHY FOG HAS DISSIPATED AT THIS TIME AND WILL BE
FLEETING THE REST OF THE MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PATCHY FOG DISSIPATING THIS MORNING.
2) SCATTERED TYPICAL SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER
AND STORM CHANCES RETURN ON MONDAY THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...EARLIER CONCERNS ABOUT FOG IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVED RAIN YESTERDAY WERE REALIZED FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS,
ESPECIALLY ALONG HIGHWAY 17. AT THIS TIME, FOG HAS DISSIPATED
AND ALL OBSERVATIONS REMAIN CLEAR AT THIS TIME. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE FURTHER FOG THIS MORNING BUT SOME FLEETING PATCHY FOG
CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SWINGS EWRD ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE
SOUTHEAST, BUT AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR, THE FRONT GETS
HUNG UP INLAND FROM THE COAST. RETURNING RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IN TANDEM WITH THE INLAND FRONT AND SEA BREEZE WILL ACT TO KICK
OFF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY INLAND ZONES
ALONG AND WEST OF THE SEA BREEZE. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
RETURN AS WELL, THOUGH HEAT INDICES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE 105
DEGREE THRESHOLD ATTM. THE DAILY SHOWER/STORM CHANCES REMAIN
THROUGH MID WEEK WITH NO HIGHER THAN CHC/SCT MENTION (30-50%).
LITTLE SHEAR IN PLACE SO ANY STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SUB SEVERE.
TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO. BREEZIEST DAY LOOKS TO BE
MONDAY WITH AFOREMENTIONED FRONT TO THE WEST AND TIGHTENED
THERMAL GRADIENT.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THIS MORNING AS RIDGING
BRINGS A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO CALM WINDS INLAND, WHICH WILL BE
PAIRED WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WINDS BELOW 10 KT WILL
CONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY.
OUTLOOK (SUN THROUGH WED): OVERNIGHT FOG AND STRATUS THREAT
POSSIBLE EACH MORNING. WEEKEND WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH PRES AND
PREDOMINANT VFR EXPECTED. NEXT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON EVENING IN FORM OF TYPICAL DIURNAL THUNDERSHOWERS. THE
DAILY SHOWER/STORM THREAT WILL CONT THROUGH MID WEEK.
MARINE
ALL MARINE HAZARD PRODUCTS HAVE EXPIRED AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL TURN NWRLY THEN NERLY THIS MORNING BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW. FOR THIS WEEKEND, LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS BRING
PLEASANT BOATING CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRES IN VICINITY.
OUTLOOK (SUN THROUGH WED): ON MON, S TO SWRLY GRADIENT INC DUE
TO FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND TIGHTENING OF THE THERMAL
GRADIENT. THIS WILL KICK UP NEARSHORE WINDS TO 25+ KT WITH SCA'S
LIKELY NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE MARINE DOMAIN INCLUDING INLAND
SOUNDS AND RIVERS. BY TUE WINDS AND SEAS RETURN TO BELOW SCA
LEVELS, WITH JUST A TYPICAL UPTICK IN LATE AFTERNOON, EARLY
EVENING WINDS DUE TO DAILY WEAK THERMAL GRADIENT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RTE/TL/RJ
AVIATION...RTE/TL/RJ
MARINE...RTE/TL
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