517
FXUS62 KMHX 230009
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
809 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MARGINAL THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS IN PLACE FOR
THIS EVENING FOR NWERN ZONES OF ENC.
WIND FORECAST HAS STRENGTHENED AHEAD OF THE FRONT/LOW SYSTEM TO
CROSS THE AREA LATE TOMORROW. SCAS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
MARGINAL THREAT OF SEVERE TSTORMS HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE FA FOR TUE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS INLAND THIS
EVENING. DRY AGAIN FOR WED INTO THU. NEXT PRECIP CHANCE IS FRI.
2) ANOTHER MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FOR MOST OF
ENC TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
3) BECOMING HOT AND HUMID AGAIN THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
90S, AND HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER 100S EACH AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFFSHORE TODAY WHILE ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE SWINGS EWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST, BUT AS
IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR, THE FRONT GETS HUNG UP OR AT LEAST
SLOWS DOWN, BEFORE REACHING ENC. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY, BEST CHANCES INLAND THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE SEABREEZE THOUGH SOME OFFSHORE CELLS MAY SKIRT PORTION
OF THE OBX. BREEZIER TODAY AS THERMAL GRADIENT INCREASES IN
ADDITION TO THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE PIEDMONT. SOME MODELS
INDICATE SOME WEAKENING MCS ACTIVITY ARRIVING INTO INTERIOR ENC
THIS EVENING, BUT THIS ACTIVITY RUNNING INTO DRY AIR SHOULD
LIMIT CHANCES TO NO HIGHER THAN 30-50% AND MAINLY FOR OUR NWERN
FA. BEST CHANCE FOR A STORM WOULD BE FROM AROUND 8PM TO 2AM. ANY
STORMS THAT ENTER THESE AREAS COULD BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE AS
SOME RENEGADE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR OF 20+ KT WILL BE FOUND
HERE, WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREAT. BECAUSE OF THIS,
SPC HAS THE TIER OF COUNTIES FURTHEST INLAND OUTLOOKED IN A
MARGINAL RISK (LVL 1/5) OF SEVERE STORMS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THE FRONT WILL THEN GET KICKED THROUGH ENC AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TUE EVENING AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE EXITS THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. 12Z GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MORE EXCITED FOR
THE PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY, LEADING TO
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES FOR MORE ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WHICH
HAS RESULTED IN A FORECAST WITH HIGHER POPS, STRONGER SWERLY
WINDS, AND GREATER QPF. FORECAST CURRENTLY ADVERTISING LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL POPS FROM 1400EDT INTO THE EVENING HOURS. NERN
ZONES HAVE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SEEING MORE ORGANIZED AND
STRONGEST STORMS, WHERE BEST CONVERGENCE AND FORCING WILL BE FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSHOWERS. AFTER COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING WFOS AND NATIONAL CENTERS, SPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (LVL 1/5) FOR THE BULK OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FRONT WILL SWEEP OFFSHORE AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET TUE. STRONGEST PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND CONDITIONS WILL DRY THE FIRST HALF OF TOMORROW
NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT, THOUGH SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHTER SHOWERS
BEING PUSHED FROM N TO S AFTER SUNSET UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. DRY
A RELATIVELY COOLER CONDITIONS (~70/90 SPLIT FOR WED) RETURN
FOR WED INTO THU WITH HIGH PRES DOMINATING. NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY AS NEXT SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH
THE SERN CONUS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...WITH THE RETURN SWERLY FLOW, HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS COMBINE TO PRODUCE UNCOMFORTABLY WARM HEAT INDICES,
THOUGH MOST LIKELY REMAINING BELOW HEAT ADV THRESHOLDS, WITH
READINGS IN THE LOWER 100S EACH DAY EARLY TO LATE WEEK. BRIEF
BREAK FROM THE HEAT EXPECTED ON WED BEHIND THE FROPA, WHEN
AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW 80S OBX ZONES TO UPPER 80S
INLAND WITH LOWERED RH'S AS WELL. HEATING BACK UP THU INTO FRI
AS RETURN SWRLY FLOW RETURNS.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT
WILL APPROACH WESTERN RTES LATE THIS EVENING AND POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING PGV AND ISO AROUND 02-05Z. WHILE THEY ARE EXPECTED BE
WEAKENING AS THEY APPROACH THE REGION, THEY COULD STILL PRODUCE
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. GUIDANCE
HAS THE STORMS DISSIPATING AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD AND AT THIS
TIME DON'T THINK THEY WILL IMPACT EWN OR OAJ. OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH SUFFICIENT S TO SW
WINDS TO CURB FOG DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS ALSO LIMITED CHANCES FOR
SUB-VFR STRATUS WITH HREF PROBS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TUESDAY, PUSHING ACROSS RTES LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SW WINDS WILL GUST AROUND
20-30 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BECOMING NW AND DIMINISHING AFTER
FROPA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BRINGING A THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LIGHTNING THE PRIMARY
THREAT WITH THE STORMS.
OUTLOOK (TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI): WINDS TURN NRLY TO NERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT TUE EVENING WITH ANY PRECIP THREAT ENDING.
MOSTLY DRY FOR WED AND THU WITH HIGH PRES REBUILDING. NEXT
PRECIP CHANCE ON FRI WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE ALONG WITH INLAND TROUGH
COMBINED WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT, HAVE LEAD TO SSW WINDS
15-20 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME INFREQUENT SCA CRITERIA GUSTS ARE OCCURING WHERE
FUNNELING OF THESE SERLY WINDS IS STRONGEST, MAINLY OVER
CROATAN AND ROANOKE SOUNDS. AN MWS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE
WATERS THROUGH SUNSET. NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE
OUTSIDE OF 20NM TONIGHT. 12Z GUIDANCE COMING IN STRONGER WITH
THE LOW TRAVELING ALONG THE FRONT TO WORK THROUGH ENC TUE HAS
LED TO AN INCREASE IN THE WIND FORECAST TOMORROW AND THE
ISSUANCE OF SCAS ACROSS MOST OF AREA WATERS FOR 15-25KT WITH
GUSTS 30-35KT.
OUTLOOK (TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI): THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE WATERS TUE NIGHT WITH FLOW BECOMING N-NE 5-15 KT BEHIND IT.
SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHES QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT, THOUGH SOME
LIGHTER SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE AROUND MIDNIGHT. RETURN SWRLY WINDS FOR THU INTO FRI
THOUGH LOOKS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ195-196-
199-204-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 1 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR AMZ135-150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 11 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ156-
158-231.
DISCUSSION...CQD/CEB
AVIATION...SK/CEB
MARINE...CQD/CEB
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