048
FXUS62 KMHX 230647
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
247 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH THE MAIN THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WITH THE MAIN THREAT OF DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.
2) BECOMING HOT AND HUMID AGAIN THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
90S, AND HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER 100S EACH AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED
OFFSHORE AND COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS EARLY
THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH SE VA
AND NE NC, WHICH SHOULD BE WANING OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THE
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD TODAY
WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. MODEST
INSTABILITY (ML CAPES 2-2500 J/KG) AND BULK SHEAR (25-40 KT)
WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SPC HAS UPGRADED EASTERN NC TO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
(LVL 2/5) TODAY (2PM-9PM). THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS, HOWEVER A LOCALIZED TORNADO THREAT COULD DEVELOP
WHEREVER LOCALLY BACKED NEAR SFC WINDS OCCUR. MULTI CELL
STORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP INITIALLY WITH THE THREAT POSSIBLY
MORPHING INTO A QLCS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A MINOR FLOOD
THREAT...BEST CHANCES FOR AREAS NORTH OF HWY 264. FRONT WILL
SWEEP OFFSHORE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING, WITH
PRECIP GRAD ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WITH THE RETURN SWERLY FLOW, HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS COMBINE TO PRODUCE UNCOMFORTABLY WARM HEAT INDICES,
THOUGH MOST LIKELY REMAINING BELOW HEAT ADV THRESHOLDS, WITH
READINGS IN THE LOWER 100S EACH DAY EARLY TO LATE WEEK. BRIEF
BREAK FROM THE HEAT EXPECTED ON WED BEHIND THE FROPA, WHEN
AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW 80S OBX ZONES TO UPPER 80S
INLAND WITH LOWERED RH'S AS WELL. HEATING BACK UP THU INTO THE
WEEKEND. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CHANCES RETURN SAT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING.
SUFFICIENT S TO SW WINDS SHOULD CURB FOG DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS
ALSO LIMITED CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR STRATUS WITH HREF PROBS LESS
THAN 20 PERCENT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY,
PUSHING ACROSS TERMINALS LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
SW WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20-30 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BECOMING
NORTHERLY AND DIMINISHING AFTER FROPA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BRINGING A
THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND LIGHTNING THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE STORMS. THIS MAY
BRING TEMPORARY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO THE TERMINALS, WITH BEST
CHANCES BETWEEN 18-00Z.
OUTLOOK (WED THROUGH SAT): PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MOSTLY
DRY FOR WED AND THU WITH HIGH PRES REBUILDING. NEXT PRECIP
CHANCE ON FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING.
MARINE
LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS 5-15 KT NORTH OF HATTERAS AND 10-20 KT
SOUTH, WITH SEAS 2-5 FT. SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE, PEAKING AT
15-25 KT GUSTING 25-30 KT THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 4-7 FT. SCAS CONTINUE FOR THE NEARSHORE COASTAL
WATERS, PAMLICO/CROATAN/ROANOKE SOUNDS AND NEUSE/BAY RIVERS.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TONIGHT WITH FLOW
BECOMING NW-N 10-20 KT BEHIND IT, ALONG WITH GRAD SUBSIDING
SEAS. SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, DIMINISHING QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT, THOUGH SOME
LIGHTER SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT.
OUTLOOK (WED THROUGH SAT): MODERATE N-NE WINDS WED, GRAD VEERING
BECOMING LIGHT WED NIGHT INTO THU. S-SW WINDS RETURN THU NIGHT
INTO FRI THOUGH LOOKS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS. SW WINDS
INCREASE TO 10-20 KT SAT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-196-
199-204-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR AMZ137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR AMZ156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR AMZ231.
DISCUSSION...CQD/CEB
AVIATION...CQD
MARINE...CQD
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