842
FXUS62 KMHX 231940
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
340 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8PM LOCAL.
MARINE HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED FOR TIMING, AREAS COVERED
REMAIN THE SAME.
RECORD HIGHS FOR LATEWEEK ADDED IN CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WITH THE MAIN THREAT OF DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.
2) BECOMING HOT AND HUMID AGAIN THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
90S, AND HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER 100S EACH AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...COLD FRONT ENTERING THE FA FROM THE W. THE COLD
FRONT AND SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EWARD THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, SHUNTED OFFSHORE BY WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT. 15Z MHX SPECIAL SOUNDING SHOWED ALMOST 6KJ/KG
CAPE AND BULK SHEAR (25-40 KT) WHICH LED TO THE CLUSTERS OF
MULTICELL TSTORMS WHICH ARE CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE AREA.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA UNTIL 2000EDT. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS, HOWEVER A LOCALIZED TORNADO THREAT COULD DEVELOP
WHEREVER LOCALLY BACKED NEAR SFC WINDS OCCUR. MULTI CELL STORMS
POSSIBLY MORPHING INTO A QLCS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT,
WHICH WILL KEEP AT LEAST A LOW END SEVERE THREAT FOR THE SERN
HALF OF THE FA THROUGH THIS EVENING. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A MINOR FLOOD
THREAT...BEST CHANCES FOR AREAS NORTH OF HWY 264. FRONT WILL
SWEEP OFFSHORE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING, WITH
PRECIP GRAD ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WITH THE RETURN SWERLY FLOW, HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS COMBINE TO PRODUCE UNCOMFORTABLY WARM HEAT INDICES,
THOUGH MOST LIKELY REMAINING BELOW HEAT ADV THRESHOLDS, WITH
READINGS IN THE LOWER 100S EACH DAY EARLY TO LATE WEEK. BRIEF
BREAK FROM THE HEAT EXPECTED ON WED BEHIND THE FROPA, WHEN
AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW 80S OBX ZONES TO UPPER 80S
INLAND WITH LOWERED RH'S AS WELL. HEATING BACK UP THU INTO THE
WEEKEND. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CHANCES RETURN SAT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE ADDED CLIMATE SECTION BELOW TO
ADVERTISE RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR FRI AND THIS WEEKEND WHEN HEAT
INCREASES AGAIN IN THE SERLY SUMMERTIME PATTERN. HEAT HEADLINES
MAY BE NEEDED SAT.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY, PUSHING ACROSS
TERMINALS LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SW WINDS WILL
GUST AROUND 20-30 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BECOMING NORTHERLY AND
DIMINISHING AFTER FROPA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BRINGING A THREAT FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LIGHTNING
THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE STORMS. THIS MAY BRING TEMPORARY
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO THE TERMINALS, WITH BEST CHANCES BETWEEN
18-00Z. HAVE CONTINUED MVFR PREVAILING GROUPS WITH TEMPO GROUPS
FOR ALL TERMINALS. WINDS TURN NERLY BEHIND THE FRONT BECOMING
LIGHTER RELATIVE TO THIS AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP QUICKLY ENDING
AND SKIES CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT IN NO VIS RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG AND TOO MUCH
DRYING THROUGH THE LOW TO MID LEVELS, KEEPING POSTFRONTAL
STRATUS THREAT LOW. HOWEVER, HAVE ADDED A LINE WITH LIGHT AND
VAR WINDS, SKC, AND NON-RESTRICTIVE SHALLOW FOG TO SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD WINDS DECOUPLE,
ESPECIALLY OVER TERMINALS THAT SAW SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SUBVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK (WED THROUGH SAT): PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MOSTLY
DRY FOR WED AND THU WITH HIGH PRES REBUILDING. NEXT PRECIP
CHANCE ON FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING.
MARINE
SSW WINDS PEAK DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT WILL REACH THE
COAST AROUND SUNSET AND PUSH OUT TO SEA. 15-25 KT GUSTING 25-30
KT THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-7 FT.
SCAS CONTINUE FOR THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS, PAMLICO/CROATAN/ROANOKE
SOUNDS AND NEUSE/BAY RIVERS. FLOW BECOMING NW-N 10-20 KT BEHIND
IT, ALONG WITH GRAD SUBSIDING SEAS. SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, DIMINISHING QUICKLY
BEHIND THE FRONT, THOUGH SOME LIGHTER SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND
THE DEPARTING LOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT.
OUTLOOK (WED THROUGH SAT): MODERATE N-NE WINDS WED, GRAD VEERING
BECOMING LIGHT WED NIGHT INTO THU. S-SW WINDS RETURN THU NIGHT
INTO FRI THOUGH LOOKS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS. SW WINDS
INCREASE TO 10-20 KT SAT.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 06/26 (FRIDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 103/1952 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 90/2011 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 99/2008 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 96/1948 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 100/1997 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 98/1968 (NCA ASOS)
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 06/27 (SATURDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN105/1952 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 94/2019 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 100/2010 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY100/1959 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 97/2010 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 99/1998 (NCA ASOS)
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 06/28 (SUNDAY)
LOCATIONTEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 99/1959 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 95/1978 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 99/1921 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 102/1959 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 97/2010 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 99/1978 (NCA ASOS)
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-
196-199-204-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135-152-
154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ231.
DISCUSSION...CEB
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...CEB
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