831
FXUS62 KMHX 241040
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
640 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DECREASED NOBX TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND INTRODUCED TSTORM
CHANCES FRIDAY. ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS
MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BECOMING HOT AND HUMID AGAIN FRIDAY TO SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 90S, AND HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER 100S EACH AFTERNOON.
2)SHORTWAVE AND BACK DOOR COLD FRONT BRINGS TSTORM CHANCES LATE
WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TODAY AS HIGH BUILDS
IN, BUT BY FRIDAY SWERLY FLOW WILL RETURN, BRINGING HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE UNCOMFORTABLY WARM HEAT INDICES WITH
READINGS IN THE LOWER 100S. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND IF THIS TREND HOLDS. INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON (20%), AS SW WINDS BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE
FOR PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.75" AND INCREASED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE SEA BREEZE. SATURDAY MOISTURE BUILD UP EVEN MORE, BRINGING
HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES (30-50%) WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND A
SHORTWAVE AT PLAY. HAVE ADDED CLIMATE SECTION BELOW TO ADVERTISE
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR FRI AND THIS WEEKEND WHEN HEAT INCREASES
AGAIN IN THE SERLY SUMMERTIME PATTERN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...LATE THIS WEEKEND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS AS A HIGH BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. MEANWHILE, A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC FROM
THE WEST OUT AHEAD OF THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. THE SHORTWAVE
BRINGS PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY, WITH BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING SUNDAY. THERE ARE
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT, LEADING TO HIGHER
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH IT. IN ADDITION,
THERE ARE TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WITH THE SHORTWAVES
OUT AHEAD OF IT. ALL THIS MEANS WE COULD SEE A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND, BUT TIMINGS, RAINFALL TOTALS, AND
DISTRIBUTION OF PRECIP ARE STILL UNCLEAR.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
COLD FRONT IS WELL OFFSHORE, WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM
INLAND. WITH THE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND HIGHER LOW LEVEL RHS,
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ANY FOG
THAT DEVELOPS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING WEDNESDAY WITH SCT AFTERNOON CU. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT N TO NE SHIFTING TO E TO SE IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGS ANOTHER STRETCH OF LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.
WE COULD SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVERHEAD, BUT IF THERE ARE
ENOUGH BREAKS THE CALM WINDS COULD ALLOW FOR FOG FORMATION. KEPT
TAFS AT 6SM FOR NOW, AS POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER KEEPS CONFIDENCE
LOW.
OUTLOOK (WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT): PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THU WITH HIGH PRESS OVER THE AREA. NEXT
PRECIP CHANCE ON FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHING.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS ARE SUBSIDING AS FRONT MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE AND
HIGH STARTS BUILDING IN. WINDS CURRENTLY N'RLY 15-20 KNOTS AND
SEAS 4-6 FT. SCA'S SHOULD DROP OFF BY 9Z, WITH N'RLY WINDS
DECREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS TODAY BECOMING E'RLY THIS EVENING.
WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOME SE'RLY THURSDAY AND SW'RLY FRIDAY.
PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT SATURDAY BRINGS A RISK OF SCA
CONDITIONS TO COASTAL WATERS, BUT AT THIS POINT IT IS LOOKING
MARGINAL, AND THE FORECAST CALLS FOR SW GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK (THU THROUGH SAT): S-SW WINDS RETURN THU NIGHT INTO FRI
THOUGH LOOKS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS. PINCHED PRESSURE
GRADIENT SATURDAY BRINGS A RISK OF SCA CONDITIONS TO COASTAL
WATERS, BUT AT THIS POINT IT IS LOOKING MARGINAL, AND THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR SW GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS. GULF STREAM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS WITH
GREATER CHANCES SAT/SUN WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 06/26 (FRIDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 103/1952 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 90/2011 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 99/2008 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 96/1948 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 100/1997 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 98/1968 (NCA ASOS)
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 06/27 (SATURDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN105/1952 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 94/2019 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 100/2010 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY100/1959 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 97/2010 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 99/1998 (NCA ASOS)
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 06/28 (SUNDAY)
LOCATIONTEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 99/1959 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 95/1978 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 99/1921 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 102/1959 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 97/2010 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 99/1978 (NCA ASOS)
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RJ
AVIATION...RJ
MARINE...RJ
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