927
FXUS62 KMHX 242359
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
759 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED OBX TEMPS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS GIVEN MODEL BIAS.
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BECOMING HOT AND HUMID AGAIN THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S,
AND HEAT INDICES AROUND 100-109 EACH AFTERNOON.
2)SHORTWAVE AND BACK DOOR COLD FRONT BRINGS TSTORM CHANCES LATE
WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR LIGHT
N'RLY WINDS OUTSIDE OF THE INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE WHICH HAS
SHIFTED WINDS AT LEAST BRIEFLY TO A S-SE DIRECTION THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND IT. RATHER COMFORTABLE TEMPS TODAY BEHIND
YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT AS HIGHS HAVE GOTTEN INTO THE MID 80S
INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE OBX. AS WE GET INTO
TONIGHT WINDS BECOME E-SE'RLY EARLY ON ACROSS THE CWA
EVENTUALLY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM TONIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION. OUTSIDE OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS THAT ENCROACH UPON ENC
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING EXPECT MO CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS WILL RESULT IN ONE LAST NIGHT OF
COMFORTABLE LOWS WHICH GET INTO THE MID 60S INLAND AND LOW 70S
ALONG THE OBX TONIGHT. THOUGH THIS WILL ALSO BRING A THREAT FOR
SOME PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS THAT SAW RAIN YESTERDAY.
ANY FOG IS FORECAST TO BURN OFF A LITTLE AFTER DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE AS WE GET INTO THURS AND THIS WEEKEND EXPECT ANY LEFTOVER
TROUGHING ACROSS THE REGION TO LIFT NORTH ALLOWING FOR W-SW FLOW TO
DEVELOP ALOFT BRINGING A WAA REGIME BACK TO ENC INTO THIS WEEKEND.
WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES GENERALLY AROUND 1420-1430M, HIGHS
THIS WEEKEND GET INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S EACH DAY WHICH COULD
BE NEAR OR BREAK RECORDS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE INFO).
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S HEAT INDICES
COULD BE AROUND 100-109 EACH DAY. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND IF THIS TREND HOLDS. ONE CAVEAT TO ALL
OF THIS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AS THIS COULD HELP TO
KEEP US BELOW HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. KEPT SCHC POPS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON (20%), AS SW WINDS BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 1.75" AND INCREASED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE SEA
BREEZE. SATURDAY MOISTURE BUILDS UP EVEN MORE, BRINGING HIGHER
PRECIP CHANCES (30-50%) WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND A SHORTWAVE AT
PLAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING AS A SECOND AND
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT LOOK TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AS A HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ON TOP OF THE INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SAT, INCREASED CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE ON SUN AS WELL. THERE ARE
SOME SLIGHT TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME FOR THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
FRONT, SIGNS CURRENTLY POINT TO A MORE ACTIVE WEEKEND ACROSS ENC
WITH TRENDS GENERALLY BEING DIURNAL IN NATURE (HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING). WILL NOTE GIVEN THE
NATURE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IT WILL NOT BE A
WASHOUT EITHER DAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY BEING HIT OR
MISS ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, BUT COULD
SEE PATCHY SHALLOW FOG LATE TONIGHT. A DENSE CIRRUS DECK PUSHING
ACROSS RTES EARLY THIS EVENING WILL PUSH OFFSHORE LEADING TO
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT, WHICH, COMBINED WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS, WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. WITH
A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, TEMPS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH CROSS-OVER TEMPS TONIGHT, SO NOT EXPECTED
SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY
SHALLOW GROUND FOG THAT WILL BRING LIMITED IMPACTS TO THE
TERMINALS. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNRISE THURSDAY WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK (THURS NIGHT THROUGH MON): PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED INTO SAT AS WE REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THOUGH COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEABREEZE EACH
AFTERNOON FRI/SAT BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
TO ANY AREA IMPACTED BY THIS ACTIVITY. A FRONT THEN TRACKS
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUN BRINGING A BIGGER THREAT AT SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, BY MON VFR CONDITIONS RETURN.
MARINE
BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS ARE NOTED ACROSS ALL AREA WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY. LATEST OBS SHOW WIDESPREAD 5-15 KT E-SE'RLY WINDS ACROSS ALL
WATERS AND 2-4 FT SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITHIN 20 NM AND 3-
5 FT SEAS NOTED FURTHER OFFSHORE 20-60NM. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVERHEAD WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN LIGHT INTO THURS
EVENING WHILE BECOMING SE'RLY, GENERALLY 5-10 KTS WITH GUSTS UP
AROUND 15-20 KTS AT TIMES. SEAS INTO THURS EVENING LOWER TO 2-3 FT
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND A FOOT OR LESS ACROSS THE INLAND
WATERS. WILL SEE A CHANCE AT SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WELL OFFSHORE 30-60 NM OUT BUT OTHER THAN THAT,
BOATING CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE RATHER PLEASANT HEADING INTO THURS
NIGHT.
OUTLOOK (THU NIGHT THROUGH MON): WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOME SW'RLY
THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT SATURDAY
BRINGS A RISK OF SCA CONDITIONS TO COASTAL WATERS, BUT AT THIS
POINT IT IS LOOKING MARGINAL, AND THE FORECAST CALLS FOR SW
GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS. GULF STREAM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING WITH GREATER CHANCES SAT/SUN WITH THE
SHORTWAVE AND BACK DOOR COLD FRONT.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 06/26 (FRIDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 103/1952 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 90/2011 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 99/2008 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 96/1948 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 100/1997 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 98/1968 (NCA ASOS)
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 06/27 (SATURDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN105/1952 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 94/2019 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 100/2010 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY100/1959 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 97/2010 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 99/1998 (NCA ASOS)
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 06/28 (SUNDAY)
LOCATIONTEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 99/1959 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 95/1978 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 99/1921 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 102/1959 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 97/2010 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 99/1978 (NCA ASOS)
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RCF/RJ
AVIATION...SK/RCF/RJ
MARINE...RCF/RJ
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