608
FXUS62 KMHX 250927
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
527 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED OBX TEMPS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS GIVEN MODEL BIAS.
INTRODUCED KEY MESSAGE FOR HOT TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
INCREASED POPS ALONG THE COAST AND FOR MARINE ZONES TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BECOMING HOT AND HUMID AGAIN THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S,
AND HEAT INDICES AROUND 100-109 EACH AFTERNOON.
2)SHORTWAVE AND BACK DOOR COLD FRONT BRINGS TSTORM CHANCES LATE
WEEKEND
3) VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
AS WE APPROACH JULY 4TH.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM THIS
ACROSS THE REGION. OUTSIDE OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS THAT ENCROACH
UPON ENC EARLY THURSDAY MORNING EXPECT MO CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING
FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS WILL RESULT IN ONE LAST NIGHT
OF COMFORTABLE LOWS WHICH GET INTO THE MID 60S INLAND AND LOW
70S ALONG THE OBX TONIGHT. THOUGH THIS WILL ALSO BRING SOME
PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS THAT SAW RAIN
TUESDAY. ANY FOG IS FORECAST TO BURN OFF A LITTLE AFTER
DAYBREAK.
GENERALLY QUIET DAY FOR MOST, WITH EASTERLY WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE. A WEAK MESO LOW IS FORMING IN
GULF STREAM WATERS, AND WILL BRING PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE
COAST, WITH POPS INTRODUCED FOR CARTERET COUNTY AND SOBX.
OTHERWISE WE EXPECT ANY LEFTOVER TROUGHING ACROSS THE REGION TO
LIFT NORTH ALLOWING FOR W-SW FLOW TO DEVELOP ALOFT BRINGING A
WAA REGIME BACK TO ENC FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES GENERALLY AROUND 1420-1430M, HIGHS THIS WEEKEND GET
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S EACH DAY WHICH COULD BE NEAR OR BREAK
RECORDS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE INFO). COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S HEAT INDICES COULD BE
AROUND 100-109 EACH DAY. HEAT INDICES OF AROUND 100F FRIDAY
INCREASE TO 100-109F SATURDAY. SUNDAY TEMPS HAVE A BIT MORE
UNCERTAINTY, AS THE TIMING OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER/PRECIP WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE ON TEMPS.
THE CURRENT FORECAST THOUGH CALLS FOR HEAT INDICES OF 100-105F
SOUTH OF HWY 264. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST AND ENSEMBLE
PROBS, SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE OF NEEDING ANY HEAT
ADVISORY HEADLINES.
KEPT SCHC POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON (20%), AS SW WINDS BRING ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.75" AND INCREASED INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF THE SEA BREEZE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING AS A SECOND AND
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT LOOK TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AS A HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ON TOP OF THE INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SAT, INCREASED CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE ON SUN AS WELL. THERE ARE
SOME SLIGHT TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME FOR THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
FRONT, SIGNS CURRENTLY POINT TO A MORE ACTIVE WEEKEND ACROSS ENC
WITH TRENDS GENERALLY BEING DIURNAL IN NATURE (HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING). WILL NOTE GIVEN THE
NATURE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IT WILL NOT BE A
WASHOUT EITHER DAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY BEING HIT OR
MISS ACROSS THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 3...AN OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP WITH ANOMALOUS RIDGING
PERSISTING ACROSS THE THE MIDWEST AND EASTERN US NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL BRING NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK. GEFS AND EPS PROBS OF HIGH TEMPS > 100F ARE
GREATER THAN 30% FOR INLAND LOCALES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL BE WORTH WATCHING WITH THE EVENT STILL
6+ DAYS OUT. CPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE CAROLINAS IN A HIGH RISK
OF EXTREME HEAT JULY 2-4. FOR THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE
JULY 4TH HOLIDAY THIS WILL BE WORTH MONITORING.
AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, BUT COULD
SEE PATCHY SHALLOW FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. CLEAR SKIES OBSERVED
WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS, ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. WITH A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION
YESTERDAY, TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH CROSS- OVER TEMPS
TONIGHT, SO NOT EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER,
CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG THAT WILL BRING
LIMITED IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL
QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE TODAY WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME LIGHT TO CALM
AGAIN TONIGHT, BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHALLOW GROUND FOG.
OUTLOOK (THURS NIGHT THROUGH MON): PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED INTO SAT AS WE REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THOUGH COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEABREEZE EACH
AFTERNOON FRI/SAT BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
TO ANY AREA IMPACTED BY THIS ACTIVITY. A FRONT THEN TRACKS
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUN BRINGING A BIGGER THREAT AT SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, BY MON VFR CONDITIONS RETURN.
MARINE
BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS ARE NOTED ACROSS MOST WATERS THIS
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE REGION. LATEST OBS SHOW
WIDESPREAD 5-15 KT E-SE'RLY WINDS ACROSS ALL WATERS AND 2-3 FT
SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITHIN 20 NM AND 2-4 FT SEAS
NOTED FURTHER OFFSHORE 20-60NM. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GULF STREAM MAY ORGANIZE INTO A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, POTENTIALLY
INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS WOULD BRING A
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE GULF STREAM, WITH BRIEF PERIODS
OF HEAVY SHOWERS FOR NEARSHORE WATERS. ONE THING OF NOTE IS WITH
A WEAK EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF
THE WEAK LOW, A NON-ZERO WATERSPOUT THREAT EXISTS FOR OFFSHORE
WATERS THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN LIGHT INTO THE EVENING WHILE BECOMING SE'RLY,
GENERALLY 5-10 KTS WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 15-20 KTS AT TIMES.
SEAS INTO THURS EVENING LOWER TO 2-3 FT ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS AND A FOOT OR LESS ACROSS THE INLAND WATERS. WILL SEE A
CHANCE AT SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WELL OFFSHORE 30-60 NM OUT BUT OTHER THAN THAT, BOATING
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE RATHER PLEASANT HEADING INTO THURS NIGHT.
WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOME SW'RLY THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK (THU NIGHT THROUGH MON): WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOME SW'RLY
THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THERMAL
GRADIENT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PM BRINGS A RISK OF SCA CONDITIONS
TO COASTAL WATERS WITH SW GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS. GULF STREAM
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING WITH GREATER
CHANCES SAT/SUN WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND BACK DOOR COLD FRONT.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 06/26 (FRIDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 103/1952 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 90/2011 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 99/2008 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 96/1948 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 100/1997 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 98/1968 (NCA ASOS)
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 06/27 (SATURDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN105/1952 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 94/2019 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 100/2010 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY100/1959 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 97/2010 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 99/1998 (NCA ASOS)
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 06/28 (SUNDAY)
LOCATIONTEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 99/1959 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 95/1978 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 99/1921 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 102/1959 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 97/2010 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 99/1978 (NCA ASOS)
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RCF/RJ
AVIATION...RCF/RJ
MARINE...RCF/RJ
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