769
FXUS62 KMHX 252355
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
755 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED OBX TEMPS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS GIVEN MODEL BIAS.
ADJUSTED POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN TRENDS.
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
1) EXPECTING HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE
90S, AND HEAT INDICES AROUND 100-105 FRI, SAT, AND SUN.
2) MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND.
3) DANGEROUS HEAT POSSIBLE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS WE APPROACH JULY
4TH.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A NICE SUMMER AFTERNOON TODAY AS TEMPS HAVE GOTTEN
INTO THE 80S. SEABREEZE IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY INLAND AS
OF THIS UPDATE WITHOUT MUCH FANFARE BESIDES A WIND SHIFT FROM E
TO SE. ONSHORE FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR CONTINUED MOISTURE RETURN
TODAY WITH PWATS NEARING 1.5" THIS AFTERNOON, WITH PWATS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL GRADUALLY PUSH OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE WILL LIFT NE'WARDS AWAY FROM THE AREA. OUTSIDE OF SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS AND
NEAR CORE BANKS NOT MUCH IMPACT WILL BE SEEN FROM THIS WEAK LOW
AND FRONT.
AS WE GET INTO TONIGHT A WAA REGIME SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA AND
PERSISTS INTO THIS WEEKEND AS TROUGHING PULLS AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES CENTERED OFFSHORE. THIS REGIME WILL BRING CONTINUED
W-SW WINDS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES TO ENC. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES GENERALLY AROUND
1410-1420M WHICH IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
REGARDLESS, HIGHS THIS WEEKEND GET INTO THE 90S EACH DAY WHICH
COULD BE NEAR RECORDS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE INFO) THOUGH
GIVEN RECENT TRENDS THIS IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY, AND GIVEN
CURRENT TEMP FORECAST FOR SUNDAY HAVE REMOVED THIS DAY FROM THE
CLIMATE SECTION. COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S HEAT INDICES COULD BE AROUND 100-105 EACH DAY. HEAT INDICES
OF AROUND 100F FRIDAY INCREASE TO AROUND 105F SATURDAY WITH
HEAT INDICES ONCE AGAIN NEARING 100F SUNDAY. WILL NOTE WITH AN
INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES ESPECIALLY SAT/SUN, MENTIONED IN KEY
MESSAGE 2 BELOW, THERE IS LARGER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY IN
EXPLICIT HEAT INDEX VALUES. SO WHILE HEAT ADVISORIES ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE SAT/SUN, IT IS NOT A GIVEN AS THESE VALUES
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THUNDERSTORM TIMING AND COVERAGE.
BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST AND ENSEMBLE PROBS, SATURDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE BEST CHANCE OF NEEDING ANY HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINES
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. WITH LOWS ONLY GETTING
INTO THE 70S EACH NIGHT THIS WEEKEND THERE WONT BE MUCH RELIEF
FROM THE HEAT. IF YOU HAVE ANY EXTENDED PLANS OUTDOORS THIS
WEEKEND MAKE SURE TO STAY PROPERLY HYDRATED AND TAKE PROPER
PRECAUTIONS WHEN OUTSIDE.
KEY MESSAGE 2... MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WILL TRANSIT ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ROUNDS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STRONGEST SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO
IMPACT THE AREA ON SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCOMING BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WHICH WOULD BRING THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. ON FRI
WE MAY HAVE MULTIPLE FOCUSES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WITH ONE BEING ALONG AN INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE FRI AFTERNOON AND
THE SECOND COMING IN FROM THE WEST FRI EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INCOMING WEAK SHORTWAVE. WHILE MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WE
WILL NOT BE AT OUR HIGHEST MOISTURE LEVEL JUST YET ON FRI SO CHANCES
ARE STILL ISOLATED FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (15-20%). WILL
NOTE WHILE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN SUB-SEVERE, WE
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG DOWNBURSTS IN THE STRONGEST STORMS WITH
GUSTS UP AROUND 40-50 MPH POSSIBLE IF THEY DO DEVELOP.
AS WE GET INTO SAT, A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO IMPACT
THE CAROLINAS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN. THIS IS FORECAST TO RESULT IN SLIGHTLY MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING
(40-60%). ON TOP OF THAT, WITH CONTINUED SW'RLY FLOW, LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL MAXIMIZE ON SAT/SUN AND WITH AMPLE SURFACE HEATING
MLCAPE VALUES INCREASE TO 1000-2000 J/KG SAT AFTERNOON WITH
SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING MLCAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 1500-3000
J/KG. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALSO INCREASING SLIGHTLY ON SAT
CLOSER TO 25-35 KTS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BRINGING A THREAT FOR DOWNBURSTS AND
GUSTY WINDS (40-60 MPH) WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS. SPC HAS
INTRODUCED THE AREA IN A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1/5) RISK FOR THIS
THREAT AS WELL.
ON TOP OF THE INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SAT, INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE ON
SUN AS WELL (50-70%). FRONT LOOKS TO TRACK FROM N TO S SUN AFTERNOON
AND EVENING PROVIDING THEE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE AGAIN CAN'T RULE OUT A STRONGER STORM OR
TWO ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OBX AND CRYSTAL COAST WHERE
THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR AXIS WILL BE BUT FOR NOW ONLY
EXPECTING SUB-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WILL NOTE GIVEN THE NATURE
OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IT WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT ANY
OF THESE DAYS WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY BEING HIT OR MISS
ACROSS THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 3...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS
AN OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH ANOMALOUS
RIDGING PERSISTING ACROSS THE THE MIDWEST AND EASTERN US NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
HAZARDOUS HEAT TO ENC STARTING AROUND WED NEXT WEEK AND
CONTINUING INTO THE JULY 4TH WEEKEND. GEFS AND EPS PROBS OF HIGH
TEMPS > 100F ARE GENERALLY AROUND 20-40%% FOR INLAND LOCALES
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. NWS PROBABILISTIC HEAT RISK VALUES OF
REACHING MAJOR HEAT RISK LEVELS OR HIGHER ARE CURRENTLY SITTING
AT ABOUT 30-50% ON WED, 50-70% ON THURS, AND 60-80% ON FRI/SAT
WHICH IS FAIRLY NOTABLE GIVEN THE HIGHER END VALUES THIS FAR
OUT. THOSE SENSITIVE TO HEAT AND ANYONE PLANNING ON SPENDING
AMPLE AMOUNTS OF TIME OUTSIDE LATER NEXT WEEK SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE FORECAST TRENDS AS THIS POTENTIAL HEAT WAVE WOULD
HAVE IMPACTS ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. CPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE
CAROLINAS IN A HIGH RISK OF EXTREME HEAT JULY 2-4.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, BUT
ANOTHER NIGHT OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME
SHALLOW GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE. THERE MAY ALSO BE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD BRING TEMPORARY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK (FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUE): COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEABREEZE AGAIN SAT
AFTERNOON BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO ANY
AREA IMPACTED BY THIS ACTIVITY. A FRONT THEN TRACKS ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUN BRINGING A BIGGER THREAT AT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER, BY MON VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AND PERSIST INTO TUE.
MARINE
OUTSIDE OF ONGOING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS NEAR THE CORE BANKS RATHER BENIGN BOATING
CONDITIONS ARE NOTED ACROSS ENC AS E-SE WINDS AT 5-10 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS ARE NOTED AS A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH AND WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY DEPART THE AREA. EXPECT WINDS TO
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SW TONIGHT AT 5-10 KTS AND INCREASE CLOSER
TO 10-15 KTS FRI AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. SEAS
GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 1-3 FT AS WELL INTO FRI NIGHT GIVEN THE
LIGHTER WINDS. WILL SEE A CHANCE AT SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WELL OFFSHORE (30-60 NM) BUT OTHER
THAN THAT, BOATING CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE RATHER PLEASANT
HEADING INTO FRI.
OUTLOOK (THU NIGHT THROUGH MON): WINDS REMAIN SW'RLY FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INCREASE FURTHER TO 15-20 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 25 KTS, THOUGH THREAT FOR SCA'S REMAINS LOW SO PRECLUDED ANY
HEADLINE ISSUANCE FOR NOW. PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THERMAL
GRADIENT SATURDAY PM BRINGS A RISK OF SCA CONDITIONS TO COASTAL
WATERS WITH SW GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS. GULF STREAM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SAT/SUN WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT FROM THE SW TO THE NE
ON SUN AND MON FROM N TO S BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 06/26 (FRIDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 103/1952 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 90/2011 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 99/2008 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 96/1948 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 100/1997 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 98/1968 (NCA ASOS)
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 06/27 (SATURDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN105/1952 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 94/2019 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 100/2010 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY100/1959 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 97/2010 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 99/1998 (NCA ASOS)
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RCF
AVIATION...SK/RCF
MARINE...RCF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page