331
FXUS62 KMHX 260757
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
357 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADJUSTED POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN TRENDS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) EXPECTING HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE
90S, AND HEAT INDICES AROUND 100-105 SAT AND SUN.
2) MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND,
WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL SATURDAY PM.
3) DANGEROUS HEAT POSSIBLE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS WE APPROACH JULY
4TH.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A WAA REGIME SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA AND
PERSISTS INTO THIS WEEKEND AS TROUGHING PULLS AWAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OFFSHORE. THIS REGIME WILL BRING
CONTINUED W-SW WINDS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES TO
ENC. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
GENERALLY AROUND 1410-1425M WHICH SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO
MID 90S EACH DAY. THE SHIFT TO TEMPS STAYING BELOW RECORD
CONTINUES, AND WITH SOME CONSISTENCY IN THIS OUTCOME NOW HAVE
DECIDED TO REMOVE THE CLIMATE SECTION FROM THE AFD. DESPITE US
NOT REACHING RECORD HEAT, TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S HEAT INDICES COULD BE AROUND
100-105 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WILL NOTE WITH AN INCREASE IN
PRECIP CHANCES ESPECIALLY SAT/SUN, MENTIONED IN KEY MESSAGE 2
BELOW, THERE IS LARGER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY IN EXPLICIT HEAT
INDEX VALUES. SO WHILE HEAT ADVISORIES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
SAT/SUN, IT IS NOT A GIVEN AS THESE VALUES WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THUNDERSTORM TIMING AND COVERAGE. BASED ON THE
CURRENT FORECAST AND ENSEMBLE PROBS, SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
BEST CHANCE OF NEEDING ANY HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINES BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. SUNDAY CHANCES ARE HIGHEST SOUTH OF
WHERE THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ENDS UP BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WITH LOWS ONLY GETTING INTO THE 70S EACH NIGHT THIS WEEKEND
THERE WONT BE MUCH RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. IF YOU HAVE ANY
EXTENDED PLANS OUTDOORS THIS WEEKEND MAKE SURE TO STAY PROPERLY
HYDRATED AND TAKE PROPER PRECAUTIONS WHEN OUTSIDE.
KEY MESSAGE 2... MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WILL TRANSIT ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ROUNDS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STRONGEST SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO
IMPACT THE AREA ON SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCOMING BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WHICH WOULD BRING THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. ON FRI
WE MAY HAVE MULTIPLE FOCUSES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WITH ONE BEING ALONG AN INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE FRI AFTERNOON AND
THE SECOND COMING IN FROM THE WEST FRI EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INCOMING WEAK SHORTWAVE. WHILE MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WE
WILL NOT BE AT OUR HIGHEST MOISTURE LEVEL JUST YET ON FRI SO CHANCES
ARE STILL ISOLATED FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE (15-20%). FURTHER INLAND, SOME TSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
ALONG A THERMAL TROUGH WEST OF HWY 17, WHERE CHANCES ARE HIGHER
(15-30%). WILL NOTE WHILE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN
SUB- SEVERE, WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG DOWNBURSTS IN THE
STRONGEST STORMS WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 40-50 MPH POSSIBLE IF THEY
DO DEVELOP.
AS WE GET INTO SAT, A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO IMPACT
THE CAROLINAS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN. THIS IS FORECAST TO RESULT IN SLIGHTLY MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING
(40-60%). ON TOP OF THAT, WITH CONTINUED SW'RLY FLOW, LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL MAXIMIZE ON SAT/SUN AND WITH AMPLE SURFACE HEATING
MLCAPE VALUES INCREASE TO 1000-2000 J/KG SAT AFTERNOON WITH
SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING MLCAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 1500-3000
J/KG. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALSO INCREASING SLIGHTLY ON SAT
CLOSER TO 25-35 KTS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BRINGING A THREAT FOR DOWNBURSTS AND
GUSTY WINDS (40-60 MPH) WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS. SPC HAS
INCREASED THE RISK TO SLIGHT (2/5) FOR SATURDAY. IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY LINGER INTO THE LATE
EVENING/NIGHT. EVEN AFTER THE SUN SETS THE WAA MAY CONTINUE TO
KEEP ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES UNCAPPED, ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION
PERSIST.
ON TOP OF THE INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SAT, INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE ON
SUN AS WELL (50-70%). FRONT LOOKS TO TRACK FROM N TO S SUN AFTERNOON
AND EVENING PROVIDING THEE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE AGAIN CAN'T RULE OUT A STRONGER STORM OR
TWO ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OBX AND CRYSTAL COAST WHERE
THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR AXIS WILL BE BUT FOR NOW ONLY
EXPECTING SUB-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WILL NOTE GIVEN THE NATURE
OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IT WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT ANY
OF THESE DAYS WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY BEING HIT OR MISS
ACROSS THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 3...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS
AN OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH ANOMALOUS
RIDGING PERSISTING ACROSS THE THE MIDWEST AND EASTERN US NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
HAZARDOUS HEAT TO ENC STARTING AROUND WED NEXT WEEK AND
CONTINUING INTO THE JULY 4TH WEEKEND. GEFS PROBS OF HIGH TEMPS
> 100F HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 30-50% FOR INLAND LOCALES
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. MEANWHILE, EPS PROBS HAVE TRENDED DOWN
TO NEAR 0% THROUGH JULY 3RD FOR ENC, WITH BETTER CHANCES ALONG
AND WEST OF I-95. NWS PROBABILISTIC HEAT RISK VALUES OF REACHING
MAJOR HEAT RISK LEVELS OR HIGHER ARE CURRENTLY SITTING AT ABOUT
40-60% ON WED, 70-90% ON THURS, AND 80-90% ON FRI/SAT WHICH IS
FAIRLY NOTABLE GIVEN THE HIGHER END VALUES THIS FAR OUT. THOSE
SENSITIVE TO HEAT AND ANYONE PLANNING ON SPENDING AMPLE AMOUNTS
OF TIME OUTSIDE LATER NEXT WEEK SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
FORECAST TRENDS AS THIS POTENTIAL HEAT WAVE WOULD HAVE IMPACTS
ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. CPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE CAROLINAS IN A
HIGH RISK OF EXTREME HEAT JULY 2-4.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, BUT
ANOTHER NIGHT OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME
SHALLOW GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE. THERE MAY ALSO BE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND
THERMAL TROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD BRING TEMPORARY SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS. BEST CHANCES ARE FOR INLAND TERMINALS WHERE VCTS
HAS BEEN INTRODUCED.
OUTLOOK (FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUE): COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEABREEZE AGAIN SAT
AFTERNOON BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO ANY
AREA IMPACTED BY THIS ACTIVITY. A FRONT THEN TRACKS ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUN BRINGING A BIGGER THREAT AT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER, BY MON VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AND PERSIST INTO TUE.
MARINE
WINDS TO TURN TO THE SW THIS MORNING AT 5-10 KTS AND INCREASE
CLOSER TO 10-15 KTS FRI AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. SEAS
GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 2-3 FT AS WELL INTO FRI NIGHT GIVEN THE
LIGHTER WINDS. BOATING CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE RATHER PLEASANT
TODAY. WINDS REMAIN SW'RLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE FURTHER TO
15-20 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KTS, THOUGH THREAT FOR
SCA'S REMAINS LOW.
OUTLOOK (SAT THROUGH TUE): PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
THERMAL GRADIENT SATURDAY PM BRINGS A RISK OF SCA CONDITIONS TO
COASTAL WATERS WITH SW GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS. GULF STREAM
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SAT/SUN WITH THE SHORTWAVE
AND BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT FROM THE
SW TO THE NE ON SUN AND MON FROM N TO S BEHIND THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RCF/RJ
AVIATION...RCF/RJ
MARINE...RCF/RJ
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