412
FXUS62 KMHX 270813
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
413 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH THE MAIN THREAT OF DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.
KEY MESSAGES
2) A COUPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
SLIGHT (2/5) RISK FROM SPC TODAY, MARGINAL (1/5) RISK FROM SPC
SUNDAY.
1) EXPECTING HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THIS TODAY AND SUNDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S, AND HEAT INDICES AROUND 100-105 SAT AND
SUN.
3) DANGEROUS HEAT LIKELY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK HEADING INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WILL TRANSIT ACROSS THE
MID- ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TODAY
THIS MORNING, A WEAK SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES ACROSS THE REGION.
LINGERING INSTABILITY EAST OF HWY 17 WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT, AND AS THIS SHORTWAVE CLIPS NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA WE
COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5-10AM. IF TSTORMS
DEVELOP, 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 15-20 KNOTS AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
WILL WORK AGAINST ROBUST CONVECTION, BUT MLCAPE VALUES AROUND
1500 J/KG AND PWATS NEAR 2.2" COULD RESULT IN TRANSIENT CORES
DROPPING AND PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS. IN ADDITION, WITH THE WEAKLY
VEERING SHEAR PREDOMINANTLY AT THE LOWEST LEVELS AND LOW LCLS A
BRIEF WATERSPOUT ISN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION. OVERALL THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW, BUT NON-ZERO THIS MORNING.
THIS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS IN A HOT AND HUMID
ENVIRONMENT WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO PLAY WITH. SHEAR
HOWEVER IS EXPECTED TO BE MEAGER, 10-15 KNOTS AND THERE REALLY
IS NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. AS A RESULT, SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PULSE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
TODAY. WHILE OVERALL WEAK SHEAR PRECLUDES SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS,
INSTABILITY IS HIGH ENOUGH WHERE BRIEF PULSE-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT CAMS ARE NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON, SUGGESTING A RAIN-FREE AFTERNOON FOR MOST. STILL, IT
REALLY WON'T TAKE MUCH FOR CONVECTION TO BUBBLE UP TODAY, SO
MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF TSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON (20-40%).
A THIRD ROUND OF CONVECTION IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THIS
EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE AND MCS APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR A SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH THE
REGION AFTER 20Z, BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES NORTH OF HWY 264. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM IN AN
AREA OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER 0-6KM SHEAR (20-25 KTS), ALLOWING FOR A
LITTLE BIT BETTER UPDRAFT MAINTENANCE. WITH DEEP INSTABILITY AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL PRESENT, STRONG TO LOW END SEVERE
STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS INITIATING NORTH OF HWY
264 LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FOLLOWING THESE STORMS, A MORE POTENT
MCS APPROACHES THE REGION AROUND SUNSET. WHILE CAMS HAVE THE MCS
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION, THERE DOES SEEM TO BE
A BIAS WHERE THEY UNDERESTIMATE MCS MAINTENANCE. ONCE THE MCS
MOVES THROUGH, SHOULD IT KEEP IT'S STRENGTH, THE PRIMARY THREAT
WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS. A POINT OF CONSIDERATION IS WITH THE
SEABREEZE MOVING THROUGH EARLIER IN THE DAY, SURFACE WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHERLY, VEERING TO SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT MATCHING THE
SYNOPTIC FLOW. THIS WILL BRING SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL HELICITIES
INTO THE EQUATION AS WELL, AND WHILE PROBS ARE LOW, IT WILL BE
WORTH MONITORING FOR A BRIEF SPIN UP. THE MCS LOOKS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT BEFORE
FINALLY MOVING OFFSHORE BEFORE SUNRISE.
SUNDAY
THE STRONGEST SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA ON SUNDAY AHEAD
OF AN INCOMING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. CAMS SUGGEST A MCS MOVING
INTO THE REGION ALONG THE SHORTWAVE IN THE EVENING IN ADDITION
TO ANY SEA BREEZE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH
BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND MORE FAVORABLE TIMING COMPARED TO
SATURDAY'S MCS, THIS ONE HAS A SHOT AT BRINGING SOME DAMAGING
WINDS AS WELL. IN FACT, NCAR ML SEVERE GUIDANCE HAS HIGHER
SEVERE PROBS ON SUNDAY COMPARED TO SATURDAY, MAYBE DUE TO THE
BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
HAVE SLOWED DOWN A NOTCH, NOW MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT SUNDAY.
PRECIP WITH THE SHORTWAVE OUT AHEAD OF IT WILL LIKELY STABILIZE
UP A BIT, BRINGING A LOWER THUNDERSTORM RISK ALONG THE FRONT.
SPC HAS US IN A MARGINAL (1/5) RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A WAA REGIME WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OFFSHORE. THIS WILL BRING
CONTINUED SSW WINDS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES TO ENC.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
GENERALLY AROUND 1410-1425M WHICH SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO
MID 90S EACH DAY. WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY PEAK
AROUND 100-105 TODAY AND SUNDAY. WILL NOTE WITH AN INCREASE IN
PRECIP CHANCES ESPECIALLY SAT/SUN. WITH A DRIER TREND IN CAMS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON, IT IS SOME SPOTS SEE ENOUGH BREAKS IN CLOUDS
TO REACH APPTS OF AROUND 105F, BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH OR LONG ENOUGH OF A DURATION TO ISSUE ANY
HEADLINES. SUNDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA APPTS, 100-105F THANKS TO THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. WITH LOWS ONLY GETTING INTO THE 70S EACH
NIGHT THIS WEEKEND THERE WONT BE MUCH RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. IF
YOU HAVE ANY EXTENDED PLANS OUTDOORS THIS WEEKEND MAKE SURE TO
STAY PROPERLY HYDRATED AND TAKE PROPER PRECAUTIONS WHEN OUTSIDE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS
AN OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH ANOMALOUS
RIDGING PERSISTING ACROSS THE THE MIDWEST AND EASTERN US NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
DANGEROUS HEAT TO ENC STARTING AROUND WED NEXT WEEK AND
CONTINUING INTO THE JULY 4TH WEEKEND. GEFS PROBS OF HIGH TEMPS >
100F HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 30-50% FOR INLAND LOCALES
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. MEANWHILE, EPS PROBS ARE STILL NEAR 0%
THROUGH JULY 4RD FOR ENC, WITH BETTER CHANCES ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95. NWS PROBABILISTIC HEAT RISK VALUES OF REACHING MAJOR HEAT
RISK LEVELS OR HIGHER ARE CURRENTLY SITTING AT ABOUT 40-60% ON
WED, 70-90% ON THURS, AND 80-90% ON FRI/SAT WHICH IS FAIRLY
NOTABLE GIVEN THE HIGHER END VALUES THIS FAR OUT. THOSE
SENSITIVE TO HEAT AND ANYONE PLANNING ON SPENDING AMPLE AMOUNTS
OF TIME OUTSIDE LATER NEXT WEEK SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
FORECAST TRENDS AS THIS POTENTIAL HEAT WAVE WOULD HAVE IMPACTS
ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. CPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE CAROLINAS IN A
HIGH RISK OF EXTREME HEAT JULY 2-4.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
CLUSTERS OF SHRA AND TSRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
MORNING HOURS ACROSS NE NC AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. FOR NOW, I'VE FOCUSED
THE TSRA RISK IN THE SHORT-TERM, BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED IN
CASE THIS NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED IN TIME WITHIN THE TAFS. MVFR
CIGS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AND NEAR THE COAST,
WITH PGV AND ISO AT SUB-VFR LEVELS RIGHT NOW, EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE BY 15Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT ENC
TODAY. LIKE TODAY, THERE COULD BE MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF TSRA
JUST ABOUT AT ANY POINT IN THE MORNING OR AFTERNOON HOURS. STAY
TUNED FOR TAF UPDATES AND AMENDMENTS AS THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OF NOTE, TSRA THAT DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF 40-60KT WIND GUSTS
AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL.
OUTLOOK (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED): COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEABREEZE AGAIN SUN
AFTERNOON, WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SUN EVENING BRINGING
BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS WITH IT. THESE WILL BE CAPABLE OF
BRINGING BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB- VFR CONDITIONS TO ANY AREA
IMPACTED BY THIS ACTIVITY. A FRONT THEN TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA
SUN NIGHT BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF PREDOMINANT SUB- VFR
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, BY MON VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AND PERSIST
INTO TUE.
MARINE
MODERATE TO BREEZY SSW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF 25 KT GUSTS DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE PAMLICO
SOUND. ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WITH THIS UPDATE, ALTHOUGH
IT IS MORE MARGINAL WITH WIND GUSTS 25-29 KNOTS EXPECTED. WHAT
GAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE THE PRODUCT WAS BOTH REFS AND
HREF ENSEMBLES GIVING A >50% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS
IN THE SCA ISSUED REGIONS. IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASE IN WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, SEAS ALONG THE GULF STREAM ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH 6 FT. WINDS LESSEN A TAD SUNDAY MORNING,
STAYING SW'RLY 15-20 KNOTS WITH THE OCCASIONAL 25 KNOT GUST
POSSIBLE.
ANOTHER FEATURE OF NOTE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. IN THE MORNING HOURS THIS THREAT WILL BE
PRIMARILY NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS, TRANSITIONING TO INLAND
RIVERS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON, AND FOR ALL AREA
WATERS IN THE EVENING AS A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVER STORMS
MOVES THROUGH FROM THE WEST.
OUTLOOK (SUN THROUGH WED): GULF STREAM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUN WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT FROM THE SW TO THE
NE ON SUN AND MON FROM N TO S BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-196-199-204-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135-152.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR AMZ154-156.
DISCUSSION...RJ
AVIATION...RJ
MARINE...RJ
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