239
FXUS62 KMHX 271838
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
238 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADJUSTED POP FORECAST BASED OFF RECENT TRENDS IN GUIDANCE AND
RADAR.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A FEW ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (2/5) OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, AND A MARGINAL (1/5) RISK ON SUNDAY.
2) EXPECTING HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 90S, AND HEAT INDICES AROUND 100-105 SUN.
3) DANGEROUS HEAT LIKELY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK HEADING INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...THE MORNING CONVECTION AND CLOUDCOVER HAS THROWN IN
A LITTLE BIT OF A WRENCH INTO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES LIKELY DRIVING MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST TODAY AND TOMORROW.
THE SHORTWAVE THAT HAD BROUGHT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
AREAS EAST OF HWY 17 THIS MORNING HAS SINCE PUSHED OFFSHORE. BEHIND
THIS SHORTWAVE, CLOUD COVER HAS LIFTED WITH ANY LEFTOVER LOW STRATUS
NOW BECOMING DIURNAL CU. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SOME DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE CWA WITH AREAS AWAY FROM THE OBX
SEEING QUICKER RISES IN TEMPS AND THUS RESULTING IN WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG THE CRYSTAL
COAST THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. AS WE GO FURTHER INTO
THE AFTERNOON, THESE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS INLAND. WILL NOTE, LATEST GUIDANCE HAS COME IN DRIER
WITH THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY OWING TO SOME SUBSIDENCE ALOFT FROM
THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UNSTABLE AND MOIST
AIRMASS WILL NOT RULE OUT EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ACTIVITY OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHOW LATER TONIGHT SO KEPT POPS FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITHIN THE 30-50% RANGE. WE ARE ALSO MONITORING AN
APPROACHING MCV FROM THE WEST WHICH IS FORECAST TO JUMP START
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL VA/NC THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS WELL. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE CWA
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND MAY NOT DEPART THE OBX UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
AS STATED ABOVE, A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS ENC TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND
TEMPS IN THE 90S. THIS IS FORECAST TO ALLOW FOR AMPLE INSTABILITY TO
BUILD WITH MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY RANGING FROM 1500-2500+ J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF ENC WITH LOWEST VALUES LIKELY ACROSS THE
OBX WHERE MORNING CONVECTION HAS KEPT CLOUDCOVER THE LONGEST. SHEAR
GENERALLY LOOKS TO REMAIN AROUND 20-25 KTS ACROSS ENC THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS ISN'T VERY STRONG AND LIKELY INHIBITS
SIGNIFICANT STORM ORGANIZATION INITIALLY, GIVEN THE INSTABILITY
AND ENOUGH FORCING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES, ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE IN NATURE.
GIVEN AMPLE MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE ACROSS ENC DAMAGING
WINDS IN THE FORM OF WET MICROBURSTS (40-60 MPH WIND GUSTS)
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY.
YET ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS FORECAST THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT COMING IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST AS AN MCV/INCOMING
SHORTWAVE KICKS OFF CONVECTION AROUND THE TRIAD REGION TODAY. THIS
ACTIVITY STARTS OUT INITIALLY AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. AS IT APPROACHES ENC,
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO MERGE INTO CLUSTERS AND POTENTIALLY A
MCS, IMPACTING THE AREA MAINLY AFTER 5/6PM AND PERSISTING UNTIL
POTENTIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MLCAPES STILL LOOK TO BE ABOVE 1000
J/KG TONIGHT AND WHILE AMBIENT SHEAR VALUES LIKELY REMAIN
AROUND 20-25 KTS, IF THE MCS CAN GET ORGANIZED ENOUGH, IT MAY
PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES CLOSER TO
30-35 KTS. AS THESE THUNDERSTORMS CLUSTERS/MCS MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD ONCE AGAIN BE DAMAGING WINDS
(40-60 MPH). GIVEN ALL OF THIS WE REMAIN IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2/5) FOR MOST OF THE CWA GIVEN THE POTENTIAL WIND IMPACT FROM
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
ON TOP OF ALL OF THIS, WPC HAS THE AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE
TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE HIGH PWAT ENVIRONMENT (PWATS AROUND
2"). WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING ATMOSPHERIC COLUMNS HAVING AMPLE
CAPE, MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN, AND DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYERS
ANY SHOWER OR STORM WOULD HAVE TO POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE 1-2" AN
HOUR RAINFALL RATES WHICH COULD EASILY OVERWHELM DRAINAGE AREA
ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE ONGOING DROUGHT. THIS COULD RESULT
IN SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLOODING ESPECIALLY NEAR MORE URBAN
AREAS.
ON SUNDAY YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA AHEAD OF AN
INCOMING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. CAMS SUGGEST A MCS MOVING INTO THE
REGION ALONG THE SHORTWAVE IN THE EVENING IN ADDITION TO ANY SEA
BREEZE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH BETTER UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AND MORE FAVORABLE TIMING COMPARED TO TODAYS MCS,
THIS ONE HAS A SHOT AT BRINGING SOME DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL.
THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY. PRECIP WITH THE SHORTWAVE OUT AHEAD OF IT WILL LIKELY
STABILIZE UP A BIT, BRINGING A LOWER THUNDERSTORM RISK ALONG THE
FRONT. SPC HAS US IN A MARGINAL (1/5) RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A WAA REGIME WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OFFSHORE. THIS WILL
BRING CONTINUED SSW WINDS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
TO ENC. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
GENERALLY AROUND 1410-1425M WHICH SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO
MID 90S EACH DAY. WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY PEAK
AROUND 95-103 TODAY AND SUNDAY. WILL NOTE, GIVEN CLOUDCOVER AND
PRECIP CHANCES BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY
REMAIN LOWER THAN HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA SO CURRENTLY NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY HEAT HEADLINES THIS WEEKEND. SUNDAY WILL SEE
ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA APPTS, 100-105F
THANKS TO THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT.
WITH LOWS ONLY GETTING INTO THE 70S EACH NIGHT THIS WEEKEND
THERE WONT BE MUCH RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. IF YOU HAVE ANY
EXTENDED PLANS OUTDOORS THIS WEEKEND MAKE SURE TO STAY PROPERLY
HYDRATED AND TAKE PROPER PRECAUTIONS WHEN OUTSIDE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS
AN OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH ANOMALOUS
RIDGING PERSISTING ACROSS THE THE MIDWEST AND EASTERN US NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
DANGEROUS HEAT TO ENC STARTING AROUND THURS NEXT WEEK AND
CONTINUING INTO THE JULY 4TH WEEKEND. NWS PROBABILISTIC HEAT
RISK VALUES OF REACHING MAJOR HEAT RISK LEVELS OR HIGHER ARE
CURRENTLY SITTING AT ABOUT 30-50% ON WED, 60-80% ON THURS, AND
80-90% ON FRI/SAT WHICH IS FAIRLY NOTABLE GIVEN THE HIGHER END
VALUES THIS FAR OUT. THOSE SENSITIVE TO HEAT AND ANYONE PLANNING
ON SPENDING AMPLE AMOUNTS OF TIME OUTSIDE LATER NEXT WEEK
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST TRENDS AS THIS POTENTIAL
HEAT WAVE WOULD HAVE IMPACTS ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, AS
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM EAST OF HWY 17. STILL A VERY TOUGH
PRECIP FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. BEST CHANCE THROUGH 00Z
WILL BE AT EWN AND OAJ, THEN AFTER 00Z BEST CHANCES SHIFT
TOWARDS PGV AND ISO AS WEAKENING MCS APPROACHES THE COASTAL
PLAIN. A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
40-60 KT WIND GUSTS. WINDS MAY DECOUPLE INLAND OVERNIGHT, WHICH
COULD LEAD TO PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS AFTER 9Z, WITH BEST
CHANCES AT PGV AND ISO. VFR LIKELY TO RETURN AFTER 15Z WITH
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT.
OUTLOOK (SUN NIGHT THROUGH THU): SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD BE
ONGOING IN THE EVENING, WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH SUN NIGHT, WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS N-NE
DEVELOPS. PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
MORNING.
MARINE
ONGOING 15-20 KT SW'RLY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS ARE NOTED
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN CAPE LOOKOUT AND OREGON INLET
AND ACROSS THE PAMLICO SOUND WHICH IS WHERE ONGOING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY NOTED. ELSEWHERE 10-15 KT SW WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ARE NOTED. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE EASING AS THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND WELL OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS SHOULD END THE LAST OF THE SCA'S ACROSS OUR WATERS
BY ABOUT 5AM SUN MORNING. AFTERWARDS DO EXPECT WINDS TO EASE
FURTHER ON SUN, LOWERING TO 5-15 KTS SUN MORNING AND THEN
SHIFTING TO A NE DIRECTION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT
SUN NIGHT. SEAS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND
3-5 FT OUTSIDE OF SOME GULF STREAM WATERS WHERE 4-6 FT SEAS
AREN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY TODAY WITH THE ELEVATED
SW'RLYS.
ONCE AGAIN WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS INTO TONIGHT AND ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
ALREADY HAVE ONGOING ACTIVITY ACROSS THE INLAND WATERS WHICH
SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY TO THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT BEFORE A BRIEF
RECEIVE SUN MORNING FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS SUN
AFTERNOON. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WOULD BRING A THREAT FOR
LOCALLY ENHANCED WINDS AND SEAS.
OUTLOOK (SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED): GULF STREAM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUN EVENING WITH THE SHORTWAVE
AND BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT FROM THE
SW TO THE NE ON SUN NIGHT AND MON FROM N TO S BEHIND THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. NE WINDS THEN PERSIST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT TUE INTO MIDWEEK.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-
196-199-204-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ154-156.
DISCUSSION...RCF/RJ
AVIATION...CQD
MARINE...RCF/RJ
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