814
FXUS62 KMHX 280118
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
918 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY.
2) EXPECTING HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 90S, AND HEAT INDICES AROUND 100-105 SUN.
3) DANGEROUS HEAT LIKELY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK HEADING INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AS OF 9PM, A WEAKENING MCS IS CURRENTLY MOVING
OFF THE COAST OF NC. THE STRONGEST PART OF THIS MCS IS MOVING
THROUGH THE CRYSTAL COAST WITH 30-40MPH WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. BEHIND THIS MCS, REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A MCV MOVING
EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN VA. WHILE ENC HAS BEEN WORKED OVER FROM
THE DEPARTING MCS, THE RISK OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS UNTIL THE VA MCV
SHIFTS OFFSHORE. ANY CONVECTION OVERNIGHT SHOULD REMAIN SUB-
SEVERE DUE TO AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
ON SUNDAY YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA AHEAD
OF AN INCOMING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. CAMS SUGGEST A MCS MOVING
INTO THE REGION ALONG THE SHORTWAVE IN THE EVENING IN ADDITION
TO ANY SEA BREEZE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH
BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND MORE FAVORABLE TIMING COMPARED TO
TODAYS MCS, THIS ONE HAS A SHOT AT BRINGING SOME DAMAGING WINDS
AS WELL. THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. PRECIP WITH THE SHORTWAVE OUT AHEAD OF IT WILL
LIKELY STABILIZE UP A BIT, BRINGING A LOWER THUNDERSTORM RISK
ALONG THE FRONT. SPC HAS US IN A MARGINAL (1/5) RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A WAA REGIME WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OFFSHORE. THIS WILL
BRING CONTINUED SSW WINDS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
TO ENC. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
GENERALLY AROUND 1410-1425M WHICH SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO
MID 90S EACH DAY. WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY PEAK
AROUND 95-103 TODAY AND SUNDAY. WILL NOTE, GIVEN CLOUDCOVER AND
PRECIP CHANCES BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY
REMAIN LOWER THAN HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA SO CURRENTLY NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY HEAT HEADLINES THIS WEEKEND. SUNDAY WILL SEE
ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA APPTS, 100-105F
THANKS TO THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT.
WITH LOWS ONLY GETTING INTO THE 70S EACH NIGHT THIS WEEKEND
THERE WONT BE MUCH RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. IF YOU HAVE ANY
EXTENDED PLANS OUTDOORS THIS WEEKEND MAKE SURE TO STAY PROPERLY
HYDRATED AND TAKE PROPER PRECAUTIONS WHEN OUTSIDE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS
AN OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH ANOMALOUS
RIDGING PERSISTING ACROSS THE THE MIDWEST AND EASTERN US NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
DANGEROUS HEAT TO ENC STARTING AROUND THURS NEXT WEEK AND
CONTINUING INTO THE JULY 4TH WEEKEND. NWS PROBABILISTIC HEAT
RISK VALUES OF REACHING MAJOR HEAT RISK LEVELS OR HIGHER ARE
CURRENTLY SITTING AT ABOUT 30-50% ON WED, 60-80% ON THURS, AND
80-90% ON FRI/SAT WHICH IS FAIRLY NOTABLE GIVEN THE HIGHER END
VALUES THIS FAR OUT. THOSE SENSITIVE TO HEAT AND ANYONE PLANNING
ON SPENDING AMPLE AMOUNTS OF TIME OUTSIDE LATER NEXT WEEK
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST TRENDS AS THIS POTENTIAL
HEAT WAVE WOULD HAVE IMPACTS ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
TSRA ARE QUICKLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE THIS EVENING, LEAVING BEHIND
A LOWERED RISK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE ONE
CAVEAT, THOUGH, IS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE
VA/NC BORDER. UNTIL THIS FEATURE MOVES OFFSHORE, THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A LOW RISK OF TSRA. AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE,
ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS
YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. ONCE AGAIN,
THERE WILL BE A RISK OF 30- 50KT WIND GUSTS WITH ANY TSRA THAT
DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY, AS WELL AS BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VIS TO
IFR/LIFR.
OUTLOOK (SUN NIGHT THROUGH THU): SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD BE
ONGOING IN THE EVENING, WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH SUN NIGHT, WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS N-NE
DEVELOPS. PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
MORNING.
MARINE
AS OF 9PM, A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS IMPACTING MUCH OF THE
COASTAL WATERS, OFFSHORE WATERS, AND THE WATERS NEAR THE CRYSTAL
COAST. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY PUSH EAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF 30-35KT WINDS AND
FREQUENT, DEADLY LIGHTNING. A SECONDARY THUNDERSTORM RISK MAY
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: ONGOING 15-20 KT SW'RLY WINDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KTS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN CAPE
LOOKOUT AND OREGON INLET AND ACROSS THE PAMLICO SOUND WHICH IS
WHERE ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY NOTED.
ELSEWHERE 10-15 KT SW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ARE NOTED.
THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE EASING
AS THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND WELL OUT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD END THE LAST OF
THE SCA'S ACROSS OUR WATERS BY ABOUT 5AM SUN MORNING. AFTERWARDS
DO EXPECT WINDS TO EASE FURTHER ON SUN, LOWERING TO 5-15 KTS
SUN MORNING AND THEN SHIFTING TO A NE DIRECTION FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT SUN NIGHT. SEAS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 3-5 FT OUTSIDE OF SOME GULF STREAM
WATERS WHERE 4-6 FT SEAS AREN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY
TODAY WITH THE ELEVATED SW'RLYS.
ONCE AGAIN WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS INTO TONIGHT AND ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
ALREADY HAVE ONGOING ACTIVITY ACROSS THE INLAND WATERS WHICH
SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY TO THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT BEFORE A BRIEF
RECEIVE SUN MORNING FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS SUN
AFTERNOON. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WOULD BRING A THREAT FOR
LOCALLY ENHANCED WINDS AND SEAS.
OUTLOOK (SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED): GULF STREAM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUN EVENING WITH THE SHORTWAVE
AND BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT FROM THE
SW TO THE NE ON SUN NIGHT AND MON FROM N TO S BEHIND THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. NE WINDS THEN PERSIST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT TUE INTO MIDWEEK.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135-
152.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ154-156.
DISCUSSION...RM/RCF/RJ
AVIATION...RM/CQD
MARINE...RM/RCF/RJ
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