809
FXUS62 KMHX 280134
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
934 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE PAMLICO
SOUND AND FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY.
2) EXPECTING HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 90S, AND HEAT INDICES AROUND 100-105 SUN.
3) DANGEROUS HEAT LIKELY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK HEADING INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AS OF 9PM, A WEAKENING MCS IS CURRENTLY MOVING
OFF THE COAST OF NC. THE STRONGEST PART OF THIS MCS IS MOVING
THROUGH THE CRYSTAL COAST WITH 30-40MPH WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. BEHIND THIS MCS, REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A MCV MOVING
EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN VA. WHILE ENC HAS BEEN WORKED OVER FROM
THE DEPARTING MCS, THE RISK OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS UNTIL THE VA MCV
SHIFTS OFFSHORE. ANY CONVECTION OVERNIGHT SHOULD REMAIN SUB-
SEVERE DUE TO AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
ON SUNDAY YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA AHEAD
OF AN INCOMING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. CAMS SUGGEST A MCS MOVING
INTO THE REGION ALONG THE SHORTWAVE IN THE EVENING IN ADDITION
TO ANY SEA BREEZE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH
BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND MORE FAVORABLE TIMING COMPARED TO
TODAYS MCS, THIS ONE HAS A SHOT AT BRINGING SOME DAMAGING WINDS
AS WELL. THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. PRECIP WITH THE SHORTWAVE OUT AHEAD OF IT WILL
LIKELY STABILIZE UP A BIT, BRINGING A LOWER THUNDERSTORM RISK
ALONG THE FRONT. SPC HAS US IN A MARGINAL (1/5) RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A WAA REGIME WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OFFSHORE. THIS WILL
BRING CONTINUED SSW WINDS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
TO ENC. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
GENERALLY AROUND 1410-1425M WHICH SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO
MID 90S EACH DAY. WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY PEAK
AROUND 95-103 TODAY AND SUNDAY. WILL NOTE, GIVEN CLOUDCOVER AND
PRECIP CHANCES BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY
REMAIN LOWER THAN HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA SO CURRENTLY NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY HEAT HEADLINES THIS WEEKEND. SUNDAY WILL SEE
ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA APPTS, 100-105F
THANKS TO THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT.
WITH LOWS ONLY GETTING INTO THE 70S EACH NIGHT THIS WEEKEND
THERE WONT BE MUCH RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. IF YOU HAVE ANY
EXTENDED PLANS OUTDOORS THIS WEEKEND MAKE SURE TO STAY PROPERLY
HYDRATED AND TAKE PROPER PRECAUTIONS WHEN OUTSIDE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS
AN OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH ANOMALOUS
RIDGING PERSISTING ACROSS THE THE MIDWEST AND EASTERN US NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
DANGEROUS HEAT TO ENC STARTING AROUND THURS NEXT WEEK AND
CONTINUING INTO THE JULY 4TH WEEKEND. NWS PROBABILISTIC HEAT
RISK VALUES OF REACHING MAJOR HEAT RISK LEVELS OR HIGHER ARE
CURRENTLY SITTING AT ABOUT 30-50% ON WED, 60-80% ON THURS, AND
80-90% ON FRI/SAT WHICH IS FAIRLY NOTABLE GIVEN THE HIGHER END
VALUES THIS FAR OUT. THOSE SENSITIVE TO HEAT AND ANYONE PLANNING
ON SPENDING AMPLE AMOUNTS OF TIME OUTSIDE LATER NEXT WEEK
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST TRENDS AS THIS POTENTIAL
HEAT WAVE WOULD HAVE IMPACTS ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
TSRA ARE QUICKLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE THIS EVENING, LEAVING BEHIND
A LOWERED RISK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE ONE
CAVEAT, THOUGH, IS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE
VA/NC BORDER. UNTIL THIS FEATURE MOVES OFFSHORE, THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A LOW RISK OF TSRA. AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE,
ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS
YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. ONCE AGAIN,
THERE WILL BE A RISK OF 30- 50KT WIND GUSTS WITH ANY TSRA THAT
DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY, AS WELL AS BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VIS TO
IFR/LIFR.
OUTLOOK (SUN NIGHT THROUGH THU): SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD BE
ONGOING IN THE EVENING, WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH SUN NIGHT, WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS N-NE
DEVELOPS. PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
MORNING.
MARINE
AS OF 9PM, A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS IMPACTING MUCH OF THE
COASTAL WATERS, OFFSHORE WATERS, AND THE WATERS NEAR THE CRYSTAL
COAST. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY PUSH EAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF 30-35KT WINDS AND
FREQUENT, DEADLY LIGHTNING. A SECONDARY THUNDERSTORM RISK MAY
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.
THE ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISRUPTED THE BACKGROUND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, BUT THESE SHOULD REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER, THE RISK OF 25KT WINDS IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW THE REST
OF THE NIGHT, AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED
FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND AND THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. ANY STORM
THAT DEVELOPS WOULD BRING A THREAT FOR LOCALLY ENHANCED WINDS
AND SEAS, AS WELL AS FREQUENT AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
OUTLOOK (SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED): GULF STREAM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUN EVENING WITH THE SHORTWAVE
AND BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT FROM THE
SW TO THE NE ON SUN NIGHT AND MON FROM N TO S BEHIND THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. NE WINDS THEN PERSIST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT TUE INTO MIDWEEK.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ154-156.
DISCUSSION...RM/RCF/RJ
AVIATION...RM/CQD
MARINE...RM/RCF/RJ
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