671
FXUS62 KMHX 280800
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
400 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FORECAST FOR MODEL TRENDS FOR PRECIP TODAY AND MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY.
2) EXPECTING HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 90S, AND HEAT INDICES AROUND 100-105 SUN.
3) DANGEROUS HEAT LIKELY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK HEADING INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING, BRINGING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS,
WITH BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG THE COAST.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA AHEAD OF AN INCOMING
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAMS SUGGEST A
MCS MOVING INTO THE REGION ALONG THE SHORTWAVE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS IN ADDITION TO ANY SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH BETTER UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT COMPARED TO SATURDAY, THIS EVENT HAS A SHOT AT BRINGING
SOME DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL. THE 00Z RRFS SUGGESTS COVERAGE
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY, WHERE A CLUSTER OF STORMS INITIATE ALONG
THE COASTAL PLANE, THEN CONGEAL TO FORM A MORE LINEAR STRUCTURE
AS IT PUSHES EAST WITH THE SHORTWAVE. LATER ON, A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. PRECIP WITH THE
SHORTWAVE OUT AHEAD OF IT WILL LIKELY CAP THE ATMOSPHERE,
BRINGING A LOWER THUNDERSTORM RISK ALONG THE FRONT. SPC HAS US
IN A MARGINAL (1/5) RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WITH WIND THE
PRIMARY CONCERN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A WAA REGIME WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY WITH A
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE BRINGING CONTINUED SW WINDS. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES GENERALLY
AROUND 1410-1425M WHICH SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S
TODAY. WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY PEAK AROUND 95-103
TODAY. WILL NOTE, GIVEN CLOUDCOVER AND PRECIP CHANCES TODAY IT
LOOKS LIKE WE MAY REMAIN LOWER THAN HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA SO
CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEAT HEADLINES THIS WEEKEND.
WITH LOWS ONLY GETTING INTO THE 70S THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT
THERE WONT BE MUCH RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. IF YOU HAVE ANY
EXTENDED PLANS OUTDOORS THIS WEEKEND MAKE SURE TO STAY PROPERLY
HYDRATED AND TAKE PROPER PRECAUTIONS WHEN OUTSIDE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS
AN OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH ANOMALOUS
RIDGING PERSISTING ACROSS THE THE MIDWEST AND EASTERN US NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
DANGEROUS HEAT TO ENC STARTING AROUND THURS NEXT WEEK AND
CONTINUING INTO THE JULY 4TH WEEKEND. NWS PROBABILISTIC HEAT
RISK VALUES OF REACHING MAJOR HEAT RISK LEVELS OR HIGHER ARE
CURRENTLY SITTING AT ABOUT, 60-80% ON THURS, AND 80-90% ON
FRI/SAT WHICH IS FAIRLY NOTABLE GIVEN THE HIGHER END VALUES THIS
FAR OUT. THOSE SENSITIVE TO HEAT AND ANYONE PLANNING ON
SPENDING AMPLE AMOUNTS OF TIME OUTSIDE LATER NEXT WEEK SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST TRENDS AS THIS POTENTIAL HEAT
WAVE WOULD HAVE IMPACTS ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING BRINGS SOME
SHALLOW FOG AND LOW STRATUS CONCERNS UNTIL ABOUT 14Z. LATER ON,
ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. ONCE AGAIN,
THERE WILL BE A RISK OF 30- 50KT WIND GUSTS WITH ANY TSRA THAT
DEVELOPS TODAY, AS WELL AS BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VIS TO IFR/LIFR.
TSRA THREAT MOVES OFFSHORE BY 5Z MONDAY, WITH A GENERALLY RAIN
FREE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WE WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON FOG/LOW STRATUS BEHIND SUNDAY NIGHT'S CONVECTION.
OUTLOOK (MON THROUGH THU): SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD BE ONGOING
IN THE EVENING, WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SUN NIGHT, WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS N-NE DEVELOPS.
PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
MARINE
A LOW-END THUNDERSTORM RISK MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
25KT WINDS HAVE STARTED UP AGAIN, MOST NOTABLY IN THE PAMLICO
SOUND (WHERE A MWS IS IN EFFECT) AND COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE
HATTERAS TO CAPE LOOKOUT, WHERE A SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO LESSEN
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. ANY STORM
THAT DEVELOPS WOULD BRING A THREAT FOR LOCALLY ENHANCED WINDS
AND SEAS, AS WELL AS FREQUENT AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
OUTLOOK (SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED): GULF STREAM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUN EVENING WITH THE SHORTWAVE
AND BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT FROM THE
SW TO THE NE ON SUN NIGHT AND MON FROM N TO S BEHIND THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. NE WINDS THEN PERSIST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT TUE INTO MIDWEEK.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ154-
156.
DISCUSSION...RJ
AVIATION...RJ
MARINE...RJ
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