943
FXUS62 KMHX 281919
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
319 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING ARE THE MAIN
THREATS, WITH SOME ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE.
2) DANGEROUS HEAT LIKELY STARTING THURSDAY, THROUGH THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ACROSS ENC THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. THE FIRST AREA OF
STORMS HAS ALREADY FIRED UP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE, WITH A
SCATTERED LINE OF STORMS FROM NEAR JACKSONVILLE TO DOWNEAST
CARTERET AND THE PAMLICO SOUND. HERE, SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WITH MPCAPES OF 2500 J/KG. THIS COINCIDES
WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 20 TO 25 KTS, PEAKING AROUND THE WESTERN
PAMLICO SOUND. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PROFILES SUPPORT ISOLATED
DOWNBURST POTENTIAL, WITH SOME HAIL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. ALL
PARAMETERS ARE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY SO THE CURRENT MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) SEEMS REASONABLE FROM SPC. IN ADDITION TO THE
SEVERE THREAT, PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. THIS WOULD BE OF SPECIAL CONCERN IN ANY URBANIZED AREAS
OR THE OUTER BANKS, DUE TO OUR ONGOING DROUGHT.
MEANWHILE A DISTURBANCE IN THE JET STREAM WINDS ALOFT MOVING
INTO NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA NOW, WILL SWEEP THROUGH BY 03Z
TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS HAS ALREADY FORMED
NEAR RALEIGH. EXPECT THIS LINE TO FILL IN, AS IT MERGES WITH AND
CATCHES UP TO THE SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY AND ENTERS AN AREA OF
HIGHER INSTABILITY (OUR AREA). ALL IN ALL, MUCH OF EASTERN NC
WILL SEE SOME PERIOD OF RAIN AND THUNDER THIS EVENING. LATER
TONIGHT A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH, ENDING OUR
RAIN CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DANGEROUS HEAT BUILDS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE UNITED STATES AND INTO OUR AREA BY WEEKS END. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS AN OMEGA BLOCK
SETS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH ANOMALOUS RIDGING
PERSISTING ACROSS THE THE MIDWEST AND EASTERN US NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DANGEROUS
HEAT TO ENC STARTING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE JULY 4TH
WEEKEND. NWS PROBABILISTIC HEAT RISK VALUES OF REACHING MAJOR
HEAT RISK LEVELS OR HIGHER ARE CURRENTLY SITTING AT ABOUT,
60-80% ON THURS, AND 80-90% ON FRI/SAT WHICH IS FAIRLY NOTABLE
GIVEN THE HIGHER END VALUES THIS FAR OUT. THIS WOULD BE
REFLECTIVE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE 100 INLAND, WITH HEAT
INDICES POTENTIALLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 110 DEGREES. THOSE
SENSITIVE TO HEAT AND ANYONE PLANNING ON SPENDING AMPLE AMOUNTS
OF TIME OUTSIDE LATER NEXT WEEK SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
FORECAST TRENDS AS THIS POTENTIAL HEAT WAVE WOULD HAVE IMPACTS
ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. BEYOND THE NEXT FEW HOURS, HARD TO PINPOINT
EXACT IMPACTS. FOR NOW WE USED A TEMPO GROUP TO SHOW THE MOST
CONFIDENCE THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A SEA BREEZE MOVES NEAR OR PAST
THE TERMINALS, AND A NEW LINE OF STORMS MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE LATER TONIGHT BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT,
MVFR CIGS BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. SOME IFR CIGS CAN'T BE RULED
OUT, ESPECIALLY AT KPGV, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THE
MOMENT. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE SLOW MONDAY, AND NOT UNTIL MID
MORNING.
OUTLOOK (MON AFTERNOON THROUGH THU): PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
MARINE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WOULD BRING A THREAT FOR
LOCALLY ENHANCED WINDS AND SEAS, AS WELL AS FREQUENT AND
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS APPEARS TO BE NEAR AND OVER THE
PAMLICO SOUND AND NEUSE RIVERS.
OUTLOOK (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY): WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE SW TO THE NE INTO MONDAY FROM N TO S BEHIND A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT. WE WILL HAVE A BRIEF WINDOW OF NEAR SCA CONDITIONS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY OFF CAPE HATTERAS AND
CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM WHERE WINDS BRIEFLY MAY TOUCH 25 KTS
WITH SEAS NEARING 6 FEET FOR A TIME. BY TUESDAY, WINDS WIL BEGIN
TO RELAX WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EH
AVIATION...EH
MARINE...EH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page