681
FXUS62 KMHX 290007
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
807 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LAST INTO TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN, LIGHTNING, AND SOME ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE.
2) DANGEROUS HEAT LIKELY STARTING THURSDAY, THROUGH THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AS OF 8PM, CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ONGOING FROM CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NC, WITH OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF
STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS. THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO LESSEN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES
AND AS LOW- LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAKEN WITH INCREASING CIN. THE
THUNDERSTORM RISK IS EXPECTED TO LAST UNTIL AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES FULLY OFFSHORE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DANGEROUS HEAT BUILDS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE UNITED STATES AND INTO OUR AREA BY WEEKS END. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS AN OMEGA BLOCK
SETS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH ANOMALOUS RIDGING
PERSISTING ACROSS THE THE MIDWEST AND EASTERN US NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DANGEROUS
HEAT TO ENC STARTING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE JULY 4TH
WEEKEND. NWS PROBABILISTIC HEAT RISK VALUES OF REACHING MAJOR
HEAT RISK LEVELS OR HIGHER ARE CURRENTLY SITTING AT ABOUT,
60-80% ON THURS, AND 80-90% ON FRI/SAT WHICH IS FAIRLY NOTABLE
GIVEN THE HIGHER END VALUES THIS FAR OUT. THIS WOULD BE
REFLECTIVE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE 100 INLAND, WITH HEAT
INDICES POTENTIALLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 110 DEGREES. THOSE
SENSITIVE TO HEAT AND ANYONE PLANNING ON SPENDING AMPLE AMOUNTS
OF TIME OUTSIDE LATER NEXT WEEK SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
FORECAST TRENDS AS THIS POTENTIAL HEAT WAVE WOULD HAVE IMPACTS
ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PIVOTING THROUGH THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS AT THIS TIME, AND UNTIL IT MOVES OFFSHORE, WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A RISK OF TSRA IMPACTS FOR ALL TAF SITES.
IT LOOKS LIKE THIS RISK SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER 05-06Z
TONIGHT. WHERE TSRA OCCUR, THERE WILL BE A RISK OF 40KT+ WIND
GUSTS. IN THE WAKE OF THE TSRA, GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF IFR/MVFR CIGS WITHIN THE DEVELOPING
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. I KEPT THE PREVIOUS TAFS MOSTLY UNCHANGED,
BUT ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF THE LOW CIG POTENTIAL.
ON MONDAY, HEATING OF A RESIDUALLY MOIST AIRMASS MAY SUPPORT A
FEW SHRA OR TSRA IN THE LATE MORNING OR AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A TSRA MENTION FOR NOW.
MORNING LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO LOW VFR BY LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK (MON AFTERNOON THROUGH THU): PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
MARINE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A RISK THROUGH
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH AREAS OF 40KT+ WIND GUSTS AND
FREQUENT, DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
OUTLOOK (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY): WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE SW TO THE NE INTO MONDAY FROM N TO S BEHIND A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT. WE WILL HAVE A BRIEF WINDOW OF NEAR SCA CONDITIONS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY OFF CAPE HATTERAS AND
CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM WHERE WINDS BRIEFLY MAY TOUCH 25 KTS
WITH SEAS NEARING 6 FEET FOR A TIME. BY TUESDAY, WINDS WIL BEGIN
TO RELAX WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EH/RM
AVIATION...EH/RM
MARINE...EH/RM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page