593
FXUS62 KMHX 290816
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
416 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR SEAS UP TO 6-7 FEET.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SE COAST. SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON.
2) DANGEROUS HEAT DEVELOPS LATE WEEK AND CONTINUES INTO EARLY
NEXT WITH MAJOR TO EXTREME HEAT RISK POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE
EARLY THIS MORNING AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS PRESENTLY
PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
LATER TODAY AND TUESDAY AND THE FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHWARD.
NHC CURRENTLY GIVES THE LOW A 10 PERCENT CHANCE FOR TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, GRADIENTS BETWEEN THE LOW OFFSHORE AND
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING
NE WINDS, LEADING TO SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION,
ESPECIALLY NE SECTIONS.
MUCH LESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TODAY BUT COULD SEE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
AND A WEAK VORT MAX APPROACHING THE AREA. BEST CHANCES WILL BE
ACROSS INLAND AND SOUTHERN SECTION WHERE INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST TO BE GREATEST, MLCAPE AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG. SHEAR
WILL BE LIMITED AND NOT EXPECTED STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS.
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD TUESDAY WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
CURTAILING STORM DEVELOPMENT, THOUGH COULD SEE A FEW SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE COAST NEAR THE GULF STREAM.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DANGEROUS HEAT BUILDS INTO THE EAST COAST LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS WITH H85 TEMPS CLIMBING TO AROUND 20-23C THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING AND EXTENDED PERIOD OF TEMPS
REACHING THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100 DEGREE RANGE EACH DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST TEMPS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HEAT INDICES ARE
FORECAST TO REACH 105-110 FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
NWS PROBABILISTIC HEAT RISK VALUES FOR THURSDAY HAVE COME DOWN
SOME BUT STILL REACH A MODERATE TO MAJOR RISK OF HEAT RELATED
ILLNESSES. MAJOR TO EXTREME HEAT RISK CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A 60-80% CHANCE FOR MAJOR HEAT RISK
OR HIGHER ON FRIDAY, AND 80-100% CHANCE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THE CHANCE FOR EXTREME HEAT RISK IS AROUND 60-80% ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WITH COMPOUNDING DAYS OF HEAT WITH POOR OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES. THOSE SENSITIVE TO HEAT AND ANYONE PLANNING ON
SPENDING AMPLE AMOUNTS OF TIME OUTSIDE LATER NEXT WEEK SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST TRENDS AS THIS POTENTIAL HEAT
WAVE WOULD HAVE IMPACTS ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS RTES EARLY THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE AREA AROUND DAY BREAK. SUB-
VFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A PERIOD IFR/LIFR
CIGS INITIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT CIGS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY
LIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN RTES AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO
THE AREAS. CONDITIONS SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING BUT SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-DAY. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN RTES. HAVE PROB 30
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT OAJ MID TO LATE AFTERNOON PROBS ARE LOWER
AT THE OTHER TAF LOCATIONS. VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING BUT
COULD SEE PATCHY SHALLOW FOG DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK (TUESDAY THROUGH FRI): DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL WITH PRED VFR CONDITIONS, BUT COULD SEE PATCHY FOG AND
LOW STRATUS EACH MORNING.
MARINE
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH N TO NE WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT THE FRONT WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL BRING NE WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT ACROSS THE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. COULD SEE A FEW
GUSTS TO 25 KT AT TIMES BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE PERSISTENT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SCA FOR WINDS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THE
STRONGER WINDS AND PROLONGED NE FETCH WILL BRING SEAS WITH
GUIDANCE BRINGING THE CENTRAL WATERS UP TO 5-7 FT THIS EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING, AND HAVE ISSUED A SCA FOR SEAS WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
OUTLOOK (WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY): THE BERMUDA HIGH BECOME
DOMINANT MID TO LATE WEEK WITH WIND GENERALLY AROUND 15 KT OR
LESS AND SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR AMZ152-154.
DISCUSSION...SK
AVIATION...SK
MARINE...SK
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