571
FXUS62 KMHX 291500
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1100 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DECREASED SHOWER/STORM POPS FOR THE REST OF TODAY.
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SE COAST. SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON.
2) DANGEROUS HEAT DEVELOPS LATE WEEK AND CONTINUES INTO EARLY
NEXT WITH MAJOR TO EXTREME HEAT RISK POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH OFFSHORE FRONT CONTINUING TO MOVE SOUTH.
NHC CURRENTLY GIVES THE LOW A 10 PERCENT CHANCE FOR TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, GRADIENTS BETWEEN THE LOW OFFSHORE AND
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING
NE WINDS, LEADING TO SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION,
ESPECIALLY NE SECTIONS.
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND A WEAK VORT MAX APPROACHING THE AREA COULD
YET SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE A STORM, BUT WITH NERLY FLOW
IN PLACE, THE COVERAGE WILL BE VERY SLIM, IN ADDITION TO MORNING
STRATO CU HANGING ON LEADING TO A SLOW DIURNAL RISE IN TEMPS
TODAY. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SWRN ZONES WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IN PLACE. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD
TUESDAY WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT CURTAILING STORM DEVELOPMENT,
THOUGH COULD SEE A FEW SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE COAST
NEAR THE GULF STREAM.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DANGEROUS HEAT BUILDS INTO THE EAST COAST LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS WITH H85 TEMPS CLIMBING TO AROUND 20-23C THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING AND EXTENDED PERIOD OF TEMPS
REACHING THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100 DEGREE RANGE EACH DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST TEMPS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HEAT INDICES ARE
FORECAST TO REACH 105-110 FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
NWS PROBABILISTIC HEAT RISK VALUES FOR THURSDAY HAVE COME DOWN
SOME BUT STILL REACH A MODERATE TO MAJOR RISK OF HEAT RELATED
ILLNESSES. MAJOR TO EXTREME HEAT RISK CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A 60-80% CHANCE FOR MAJOR HEAT RISK
OR HIGHER ON FRIDAY, AND 80-100% CHANCE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THE CHANCE FOR EXTREME HEAT RISK IS AROUND 60-80% ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WITH COMPOUNDING DAYS OF HEAT WITH POOR OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES. THOSE SENSITIVE TO HEAT AND ANYONE PLANNING ON
SPENDING AMPLE AMOUNTS OF TIME OUTSIDE LATER NEXT WEEK SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST TRENDS AS THIS POTENTIAL HEAT
WAVE WOULD HAVE IMPACTS ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MVFR STRATO CU WAS SLOW TO LIFT THIS MORNING AS ENC UNDER NERLY
FLOW REGIME ON BACKSIDE OF OFFSHORE LOW PRES. THIS WILL LIMIT
AFTERNOON SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES, AND HAVE ONLY A VCSH MENTION
AT KOAJ WHERE BEST CHANCES ARE FOR ANY RAIN. ELSEWHERE, CHANCES
TOO SLIM FOR ANY MENTIONABLE RAIN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NERLY
THROUGH THE TAF PD WITH THE LOW OFFSHORE.
OUTLOOK (TUESDAY THROUGH FRI): DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL WITH PRED VFR CONDITIONS, BUT COULD SEE PATCHY FOG AND
LOW STRATUS EACH MORNING.
MARINE
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH N TO NE WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT THE FRONT WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL BRING NE WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT ACROSS THE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. COULD SEE A FEW
GUSTS TO 25 KT AT TIMES BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE PERSISTENT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SCA FOR WINDS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THE
STRONGER WINDS AND PROLONGED NE FETCH WILL BRING SEAS WITH
GUIDANCE BRINGING THE CENTRAL WATERS UP TO 5-7 FT THIS EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING, AND HAVE ISSUED A SCA FOR SEAS WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
OUTLOOK (WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY): THE BERMUDA HIGH BECOME
DOMINANT MID TO LATE WEEK WITH WIND GENERALLY AROUND 15 KT OR
LESS AND SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR AMZ152-154.
DISCUSSION...SK/TL
AVIATION...SK/TL
MARINE...SK
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