975
FXUS62 KMHX 142333
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
733 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE DANGEROUS HEAT THROUGH TODAY, THEN
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
2) UNSETTLED PATTERN EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THIS WEEKEND,
INCLUDING THE NEXT RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NC WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT, BUT WITH A NOT-AS-
HOT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW LINGERING FOR ONE MORE DAY. SHOWERS HAVE
MAINLY SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AND EXPECT
DECENT CLEARING OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO PATCHY INLAND FOG
DEVELOPMENT.
AFTER TODAY, SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL SUPPORT WARMING TEMPERATURES, RISING HUMIDITY, AND AN
INCREASING HEAT RISK. THE HEAT RISK IS EXPECTED TO PEAK
THURSDAY- SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH THE RETURN OF A MORE CONVECTIVELY
ACTIVE PATTERN MAY HOLD THE HEAT RISK DOWN SOME, ESPECIALLY FROM
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DETERMINISTIC, ENSEMBLE, AND MACHINE LEARNING
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG SIGNAL FOR A MORE
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNING BY THE WEEKEND, AND
POTENTIALLY CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONALLY, MACHINE
LEARNING AND ANALOG GUIDANCE SUGGEST A PATTERN THAT IS ALSO
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY-MONDAY. PWATS ARE
FORECAST TO RISE BACK ABOVE 2" AS WELL, SUGGESTING A PATTERN
FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIALLY SOME HYDRO CONCERNS.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SETUP STILL APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT,
POTENTIALLY WITH A RISK OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 08Z.
HIGHEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE AT KEWN/KISO AND ESPECIALLY KOAJ
WITH THE HIGHER AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS. IF ANY FOG DEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT, CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
RETURNING TO VFR.
OUTLOOK (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY): A DRIER AND MORE MUTED TSRA
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. EVENTUALLY, A MORE ACTIVE
TSRA PATTERN SHOULD DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR. PATCHY FOG AND/OR STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT.
MARINE
LATEST OBS SHOW NE-E WINDS 10-20 KT WITH SEAS 3-5 FT. LOW
PRESSURE SOUTH OF ENC WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT AWAY FROM
THE AREA TONIGHT. WINDS LAY DOWN TONIGHT TO AROUND 5-10 KT.
VARIABLE WINDS 5-10 KT WED MORNING, BECOMING S-SSE 5-15 KT BY
LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL GRAD SUBSIDE TO TO 2-4 FT TONIGHT AND
2-3 FT WED.
OUTLOOK (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY): SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ON
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, STEADILY BUILDING EACH DAY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PEAK OVER THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH ELEVATED SEAS. THE
NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR MARINE HEADLINES IS EXPECTED WITH THE
BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS THIS WEEKEND. A MORE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM
PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS WELL.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ196-
203>205.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RM/CQD
AVIATION...EH/CQD
MARINE...CQD
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