528
FXUS62 KMHX 150536
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
136 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE DANGEROUS HEAT THROUGH TODAY, THEN
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
2) UNSETTLED PATTERN EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THIS WEEKEND,
INCLUDING THE NEXT RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NC WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT, BUT WITH A NOT-AS-
HOT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW LINGERING FOR ONE MORE DAY. SHOWERS HAVE
MAINLY SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AND EXPECT
DECENT CLEARING OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO PATCHY INLAND FOG
DEVELOPMENT.
AFTER TODAY, SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL SUPPORT WARMING TEMPERATURES, RISING HUMIDITY, AND AN
INCREASING HEAT RISK. THE HEAT RISK IS EXPECTED TO PEAK
THURSDAY- SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH THE RETURN OF A MORE CONVECTIVELY
ACTIVE PATTERN MAY HOLD THE HEAT RISK DOWN SOME, ESPECIALLY FROM
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DETERMINISTIC, ENSEMBLE, AND MACHINE LEARNING
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG SIGNAL FOR A MORE
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNING BY THE WEEKEND, AND
POTENTIALLY CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONALLY, MACHINE
LEARNING AND ANALOG GUIDANCE SUGGEST A PATTERN THAT IS ALSO
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY-MONDAY. PWATS ARE
FORECAST TO RISE BACK ABOVE 2" AS WELL, SUGGESTING A PATTERN
FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIALLY SOME HYDRO CONCERNS.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CHALLENGE, AND POTENTIAL IMPACT,
OVERNIGHT IS BR/MIFG/FG. SOME OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE AREA HAVE
SHOWN SOME TEMPORARY DROPS TO IFR, OR LOWER, CONDITIONS. BASED
ON WEBCAMS, THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO SHALLOW FOG AS OPPOSED TO
SOMETHING WITH MORE DEPTH. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT, BUT THE PLAN FOR NOW IS TO HOLD WITH MVFR VIS
UNLESS OBSERVATIONS OR SATELLITE SUGGEST OTHERWISE. ANY SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY 13Z ON WEDNESDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY, WITH NO TSRA RISK. OF
NOTE, THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH KOAJ
AND KEWN BETWEEN 19-21Z WITH A BUMP UP IN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS. ANOTHER ROUND OF BR/MIFG/FG MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY): VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH A REDUCED
RISK OF TSRA. ON FRIDAY, ISOLATED SEABREEZE TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASING RISK
OF TSRA IMPACTS OVER THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
LATEST OBS SHOW NE-E WINDS 10-20 KT WITH SEAS 3-5 FT. LOW
PRESSURE SOUTH OF ENC WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT AWAY FROM
THE AREA TONIGHT. WINDS LAY DOWN TONIGHT TO AROUND 5-10 KT.
VARIABLE WINDS 5-10 KT WED MORNING, BECOMING S-SSE 5-15 KT BY
LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL GRAD SUBSIDE TO TO 2-4 FT TONIGHT AND
2-3 FT WED.
OUTLOOK (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY): SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ON
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, STEADILY BUILDING EACH DAY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PEAK OVER THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH ELEVATED SEAS. THE
NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR MARINE HEADLINES IS EXPECTED WITH THE
BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS THIS WEEKEND. A MORE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM
PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS WELL.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RM/CQD
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...CQD
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