361
FXUS62 KMHX 152324
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
724 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DANGEROUS HEAT BUILDS THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
2) UNSETTLED PATTERN EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THIS WEEKEND,
INCLUDING THE NEXT RISK OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH WARMING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
BENEATH IT. RIDGING PLUS MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS ALOFT SHOULD PUT
A CAP ON CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND WILL
PROBABLY LIMIT CLOUDCOVER AS WELL. STRONG HEATING PLUS ALL OF
THE FACTORS ABOVE SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS RISING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S INLAND, AND AROUND 90 ALONG THE COAST.
WITH THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX
OUT INTO THE 60S INLAND THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY, LOWERING THE
RISK OF 105+ HEAT INDICES. AN ADDITIONAL MITIGATING FACTOR IS
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES THAT IS DRIFTING SOUTH INTO THE
AREA. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES FROM WHAT
WAS EXPECTED IN THE MODELS AND THUS COULD MITIGATE THE NEED FOR
A HEAT ADVISORY ON THURSDAY BUT BORDERLINE HEAT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL STILL EXIST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FROM FRIDAY ON, DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE
WITH CONTINUED, AND MOISTENING, SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS SHOULD LEAD
TO DEWPOINTS CONSISTENTLY STAYING IN THE 70S, EVEN DURING PEAK
HEATING/MIXING. HEAT INDICES OF 105-110 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE MORE QUESTIONABLE DUE
TO AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...LOW- MID LEVEL TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO SETUP
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY, PLUS INCREASING LOW- LEVEL
FORCING, IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PERIOD.
INITIALLY, CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY FOCUSED ALONG
THE SEABREEZE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AND WILL PROBABLY BE MORE
ISOLATED IN NATURE. AN INCREASING COVERAGE IS THEN EXPECTED
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASES. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK (<25KT), BUT MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT A DAILY RISK OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE PULSE-TYPE CONVECTION. THERE IS STRONG SUPPORT FOR THIS
IN ANALOG AND MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY-
TUESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
QUIET AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SMOKEY SKIES
LIKELY TO LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MODELS
SHOWING ONLY MODEST PROBABILITIES OF SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT, AND ALTHOUGH MOST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE POINTS TO ODDS
OF FOG DEVELOPMENT UNDER 10% MODEL SOUNDINGS DO POINT TO JUST
ENOUGH BL SATURATION TO SUPPORT SOME VERY PATCHY DEVELOPMENT
RIGHT BEFORE DAWN. IF THIS DOES OCCUR IMPACTS TO ANY TERMINALS
WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE.
LIGHT SW WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE DIURNAL
SEABREEZE MOVING THROUGH EWN AND OAJ AFTER 18Z BRINGING A
TYPICAL GUSTY PERIOD OF S WINDS. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY): ON FRIDAY, ISOLATED
SEABREEZE TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE FOLLOWED
BY AN INCREASING RISK OF TSRA IMPACTS OVER THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND BUILDING STEADILY
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. DESPITE THIS, SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
HOLD IN THE 2-3FT RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT AT 7-9 SECOND PERIODS.
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY): SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND, PEAKING AT 15-25KT BY
SATURDAY, THEN REMAINING AROUND THAT RANGE INTO NEXT WEEK. SEAS
WILL RESPOND AND BUILD TO 3-5FT BY SATURDAY, THEN PEAK IN THE
4-7FT RANGE BY SUNDAY. THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RTE/RM
AVIATION...RTE/RM/MS
MARINE...RTE/RM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page