161
FXUS62 KMHX 160553
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
153 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DANGEROUS HEAT BUILDS THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
2) UNSETTLED PATTERN EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THIS WEEKEND,
INCLUDING THE NEXT RISK OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH WARMING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
BENEATH IT. RIDGING PLUS MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS ALOFT SHOULD PUT
A CAP ON CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND WILL
PROBABLY LIMIT CLOUDCOVER AS WELL. STRONG HEATING PLUS ALL OF
THE FACTORS ABOVE SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS RISING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S INLAND, AND AROUND 90 ALONG THE COAST.
WITH THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX
OUT INTO THE 60S INLAND THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY, LOWERING THE
RISK OF 105+ HEAT INDICES. AN ADDITIONAL MITIGATING FACTOR IS
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES THAT IS DRIFTING SOUTH INTO THE
AREA. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES FROM WHAT
WAS EXPECTED IN THE MODELS AND THUS COULD MITIGATE THE NEED FOR
A HEAT ADVISORY ON THURSDAY BUT BORDERLINE HEAT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL STILL EXIST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FROM FRIDAY ON, DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE
WITH CONTINUED, AND MOISTENING, SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS SHOULD LEAD
TO DEWPOINTS CONSISTENTLY STAYING IN THE 70S, EVEN DURING PEAK
HEATING/MIXING. HEAT INDICES OF 105-110 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE MORE QUESTIONABLE DUE
TO AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...LOW- MID LEVEL TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO SETUP
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY, PLUS INCREASING LOW- LEVEL
FORCING, IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PERIOD.
INITIALLY, CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY FOCUSED ALONG
THE SEABREEZE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AND WILL PROBABLY BE MORE
ISOLATED IN NATURE. AN INCREASING COVERAGE IS THEN EXPECTED
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASES. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK (<25KT), BUT MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT A DAILY RISK OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE PULSE-TYPE CONVECTION. THERE IS STRONG SUPPORT FOR THIS
IN ANALOG AND MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY-
TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH, OF NOT ALL, OF
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IT'S POSSIBLE THERE WILL BE SOME BR/MIFG
OVERNIGHT, BUT TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AREN'T AS LOW, AND THE
OVERALL AIRMASS IS NOTABLY DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WE'LL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS OVERNIGHT, BUT THE RISK OF VIS
REDUCTIONS APPEARS TO BE LOWER THAN THIS TIME 24 HOURS AGO.
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, TSRA ARE NOT EXPECTED, BUT THE
SEABREEZE WILL MOVE THROUGH KOAJ AND KEWN WITH A BUMP UP IN
WINDS (PERHAPS GUSTING TO 20KT AT TIMES). ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS
AN ELEVATED LAYER OF SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES THAT IS
MEANDERING AROUND THE REGION. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS SHOULD
REMAIN ELEVATED AND NOT WORK DOWN TO THE SURFACE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY): GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SMOKE FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY TRY TO WORK DOWN TO THE SURFACE FRIDAY OR
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH REDUCTIONS TO VIS POSSIBLE. IT'S UNCLEAR
WHETHER OR NOT SMOKE IMPACTS WILL LAST BEYOND FRIDAY. OTHERWISE,
THE RISK OF TSRA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, BECOMING MORE LIKELY FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE TSRA IMPACTS.
MARINE
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND BUILDING STEADILY
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. DESPITE THIS, SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
HOLD IN THE 2-3FT RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT AT 7-9 SECOND PERIODS.
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY): SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND, PEAKING AT 15-25KT BY
SATURDAY, THEN REMAINING AROUND THAT RANGE INTO NEXT WEEK. SEAS
WILL RESPOND AND BUILD TO 3-5FT BY SATURDAY, THEN PEAK IN THE
4-7FT RANGE BY SUNDAY. THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RTE/RM
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...RTE/RM
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