342
FXUS62 KMHX 161048
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
648 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED TEMPERATURES SOME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO
ELEVATED SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
2) UNSETTLED PATTERN EXPECTED TO RETURN THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK, INCLUDING A RISK OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WHILE A WARMING TREND IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND, ELEVATED SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES HAS
COMPLICATED THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE SMOKE, WHILE ELEVATED,
WAS THICK ENOUGH TO REDUCE DAYTIME HEATING AND KEEP
TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. AVAILABLE SMOKE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS SMOKE LAYER WILL SHIFT NORTH INTO
VIRGINIA TODAY, THEN SINK BACK SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA ON
FRIDAY. IN FACT, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LAYER OF SMOKE MAY LOWER
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE AND LEAD TO SOME REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF ENC. YESTERDAY WE SAW A
SHARP GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES FOR AREAS UNDERNEATH THE SMOKE
COMPARED TO AREAS WITH FULL SUNSHINE. IT APPEARS THAT GRADIENT
WILL BE OVER ENC TODAY, WITH TEMPERATURES MOST IMPACTED ACROSS
VIRGINIA. EVEN SO, GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE SMOKE
WILL BE, WE OPTED TO GO BELOW BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY
TO REFLECT THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO BE MUTED SOME. IF THE
SMOKE DOES, INDEED, FILL BACK IN FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY, THEN
TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE EVEN MORE IMPACTED THEN COMPARED TO
TODAY. FOR NOW, WE HAVE ALSO GONE BELOW BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS ON FRIDAY.
THE UNCERTAINTIES WITH TEMPERATURES ALSO COMPLICATES THE
DECISION TO ISSUE HEAT HEADLINES OR NOT. FOR TODAY, THE
POTENTIAL IMPACT FROM SMOKE PLUS AFTERNOON MIXING OUT OF LOWER
DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A LIMITING FACTOR TO KEEP THE RISK
OF 105+ HEAT INDICES LOWER. FOR THIS REASON, NO HEAT HEADLINES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY. IF THE SMOKE ENDS UP HAVING LESS OF
AN IMPACT TODAY, THEN HEAT INDICES WOULD LIKELY BE HIGHER. IT
LOOKS MARGINAL FOR HEAT HEADLINES TODAY EITHER WAY. ON FRIDAY, A
MOISTENING SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHER DEWPOINTS. EVEN
WITH MUTED AFTERNOON HEATING, THE TEMP/DEWPOINT COMBO APPEARS
MORE SUPPORTIVE OF HEAT HEADLINES COMPARED TO TODAY. THIS IS
SOMETHING WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN THE COMING DAYS. IT COULD
BE THAT THE RISK OF DANGEROUS HEAT IS DELAYED UNTIL SATURDAY,
ASSUMING THE LAYER OF SMOKE MOVES OUT BY THEN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE PATTERN FROM THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK,
BUT ALSO WITH SOME IMPORTANT CONSIDERATIONS.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. WITH RIDGING SHIFTING AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE LACK OF
SUBSIDENCE, ALONE, CAN HELP SUPPORT A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN.
ADDITIONALLY, PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW EAST OF THE TROUGH,
POTENTIALLY WITH A SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION, SHOULD ACT TO ENHANCE
LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE, HEATING OF A
MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD LEAD TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
AND REDUCED INHIBITION IN SUPPORT OF PERIODS OF CONVECTION.
AT THE SURFACE, LEE-SIDE TROUGHING AND, EVENTUALLY, A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVIDE AREAS OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL FORCING.
ADDITIONALLY, WHILE GUIDANCE REMAINS MIXED, THERE IS A MODEST
SIGNAL FOR LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF. WHETHER THIS OBTAINS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OR NOT, IT
COULD ACT TO ENHANCE RAINFALL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST IF
IT ENDS UP GETTING PULLED NORTH AHEAD OF THE ABOVE-MENTIONED
UPPER TROUGH. NOT ALL GUIDANCE SHOW THIS, THOUGH, AS SOME
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TAKE THE LOW WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A 20%
PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS, AND IT IS
SOMETHING WE WILL BE MONITORING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK.
TROPICS ASIDE, DETERMINISTIC AND MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SHOW A GOOD SIGNAL FOR SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DURING THIS PERIOD OF ACTIVE
WEATHER. RIGHT NOW THE SIGNAL IS THE STRONGEST ON SUNDAY. GIVEN
INCREASED FORCING AND THE POTENTIAL TAP OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE,
HEAVY RAIN AND SOME HYDRO IMPACTS MAY EVENTUALLY BE REALIZED.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH, OF NOT ALL, OF
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IT'S POSSIBLE THERE WILL BE SOME BRIEF
REDUCTIONS TO VIS DUE TO MIFG EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT
IT SHOULDN'T LAST LONG DUE TO THE AIRMASS BEING NOTABLY DRY FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TSRA ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY, BUT THE SEABREEZE WILL MOVE
THROUGH KOAJ AND KEWN WITH A BUMP UP IN WINDS (PERHAPS GUSTING
TO 20KT AT TIMES). ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS AN ELEVATED LAYER OF
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES THAT IS MEANDERING AROUND THE
REGION. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED AND NOT
IMPACT VIS THROUGH TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY): GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SMOKE FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY TRY TO WORK DOWN TO THE SURFACE FRIDAY OR
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH REDUCTIONS TO VIS POSSIBLE. IT'S UNCLEAR
WHETHER OR NOT SMOKE IMPACTS WILL LAST BEYOND FRIDAY. OTHERWISE,
THE RISK OF TSRA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, BECOMING MORE LIKELY FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE TSRA IMPACTS.
MARINE
MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 10-15KT ARE EXPECTED LATER TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG WITH 2-3FT SEAS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. THE ONE DIFFERENCE IS FOR THE NORTHERN
WATERS. A SLOWING FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THOSE WATERS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST OR EAST FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. EVENTUALLY, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN FOR ALL
WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THAT FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH.
OUTLOOK (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY): SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 20- 30KT OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
GRADIENT SHARPENS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING THE
REGION. OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS, FREQUENT GALE-FORCE GUSTS
APPEAR POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. IT MAY NOT QUITE REACH THE THRESHOLD FOR A GALE WARNING
THERE, BUT THE INCREASED WINDS ARE NOTABLE. SEAS WILL QUICKLY
RESPOND TO THE WINDS, BUILDING TO 4-7FT BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK FOR THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS. FOR THE OUTER WATERS,
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS MAY LAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RM
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...RM
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