930
FXUS62 KMHX 162358
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
758 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT
ADVISORIES FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
2) UNSETTLED PATTERN EXPECTED TO RETURN THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK, INCLUDING A RISK OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WHILE A WARMING TREND IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND, ELEVATED SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES CONTINUES
TO COMPLICATE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. AVAILABLE SMOKE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THIS SMOKE LAYER MAINLY OVER VIRGINIA, WILL SINK SOUTH
INTO NORTH CAROLINA ON FRIDAY. IN FACT, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
LAYER OF SMOKE MAY LOWER CLOSER TO THE SURFACE AND LEAD TO SOME
REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF EASTERN NC, ALONG HWY 64. YESTERDAY WE SAW A SHARP GRADIENT
IN TEMPERATURES FOR AREAS UNDERNEATH THE SMOKE COMPARED TO AREAS
WITH FULL SUNSHINE. IT APPEARS THAT GRADIENT WILL BE OVER ENC
TODAY, WITH TEMPERATURES MOST IMPACTED ACROSS VIRGINIA. IF THE
SMOKE DOES, INDEED, FILL BACK IN FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY, THEN
TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE IMPACTED. FOR NOW, WE HAVE ALSO
GONE BELOW BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.
THE UNCERTAINTIES WITH TEMPERATURES ALSO COMPLICATES THE DECISION
TO ISSUE HEAT HEADLINES OR NOT. THE POTENTIAL IMPACT FROM SMOKE
PLUS AFTERNOON MIXING OUT OF LOWER DEWPOINTS COULD BE ENOUGH OF
A LIMITING FACTOR TO KEEP THE RISK OF 105+ HEAT INDICES LOWER
FRIDAY. IF THE SMOKE ENDS UP HAVING LESS OF AN IMPACT, THEN HEAT
INDICES WOULD LIKELY BE HIGHER. MOISTENING SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD
LEAD TO HIGHER DEWPOINTS FRIDAY. EVEN WITH SOMEWHAT MUTED
AFTERNOON HEATING, THE TEMP/DEWPOINT COMBO APPEARS MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF HEAT HEADLINES COMPARED TO TODAY. WILL HOLD OFF
FOR NOW, BUT A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY AND AGAIN
SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE PATTERN FROM THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK,
BUT ALSO WITH SOME IMPORTANT CONSIDERATIONS.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. WITH RIDGING SHIFTING AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE LACK OF
SUBSIDENCE, ALONE, CAN HELP SUPPORT A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN.
ADDITIONALLY, PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW EAST OF THE TROUGH,
POTENTIALLY WITH A SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION, SHOULD ACT TO ENHANCE
LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE, HEATING OF A
MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD LEAD TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
AND REDUCED INHIBITION IN SUPPORT OF PERIODS OF CONVECTION.
AT THE SURFACE, LEE-SIDE TROUGHING AND, EVENTUALLY, A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVIDE AREAS OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL FORCING.
ADDITIONALLY, WHILE GUIDANCE REMAINS MIXED, THERE IS A MODEST
SIGNAL FOR LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF. WHETHER THIS OBTAINS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OR NOT, IT
COULD ACT TO ENHANCE RAINFALL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST IF
IT ENDS UP GETTING PULLED NORTH AHEAD OF THE ABOVE-MENTIONED
UPPER TROUGH. NOT ALL GUIDANCE SHOW THIS THOUGH, AS SOME
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TAKE THE LOW WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A 20%
PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS, AND IT IS
SOMETHING WE WILL BE MONITORING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK.
TROPICS ASIDE, DETERMINISTIC AND MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SHOW A GOOD SIGNAL FOR SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DURING THIS PERIOD OF ACTIVE
WEATHER. RIGHT NOW THE SIGNAL IS THE STRONGEST ON SUNDAY. GIVEN
INCREASED FORCING AND THE POTENTIAL TAP OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE,
HEAVY RAIN AND SOME HYDRO IMPACTS MAY EVENTUALLY BE REALIZED.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
REMAINS AN ELEVATED LAYER OF SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES THAT
IS MEANDERING AROUND THE REGION. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS SHOULD
REMAIN ELEVATED AND NOT IMPACT VISIBILITIES THROUGH FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY): GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SMOKE
FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY TRY TO WORK DOWN TO THE SURFACE
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH REDUCTIONS TO VIS POSSIBLE. IT'S UNCLEAR
WHETHER OR NOT SMOKE IMPACTS WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE, THE RISK OF TSRA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT, BECOMING MORE LIKELY FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE
TSRA IMPACTS.
MARINE
LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY OBS INDICATE LIGHT TO MODERATE SW WINDS
5-15 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 2 FT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10-15 KT
THIS EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 2-3 FT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. THE ONE DIFFERENCE IS FOR THE NORTHERN
WATERS. A SLOWING FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THOSE WATERS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST OR EAST FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. EVENTUALLY, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN FOR ALL
WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THAT FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH.
OUTLOOK (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY): SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 20-30KT OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
GRADIENT SHARPENS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING THE
REGION. OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS, FREQUENT GALE-FORCE GUSTS
APPEAR POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. IT MAY NOT QUITE REACH THE THRESHOLD FOR A GALE WARNING
THERE, BUT THE INCREASED WINDS ARE NOTABLE. SEAS WILL QUICKLY
RESPOND TO THE WINDS, BUILDING TO 4-7FT BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK FOR THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS. FOR THE OUTER WATERS,
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS MAY LAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DAG/RM/CQD
AVIATION...DAG/CQD
MARINE...DAG/CQD
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