795
FXUS62 KMHX 181047
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
647 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WIDESPREAD ISSUES WITH AWOS OBSERVATION SITES ACROSS NC AND SC.
AVIATION DISCO UPDATED.
PREVIOUS DISCO: HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY.
TODAY'S HEAT ADVISORY COVERS THE ENTIRETY OF ENC.
MARINE HEADLINES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO COVER THE NEUSE AND BAY
RIVERS.
SPC HAS EXPANDED THE AREA COVERED BY THEIR SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR DAY 2 (SUN). THE BULK OF THE AREA LIES WITHIN
THIS AREA NOW.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, POTENTIALLY
LINGERING INTO THE MIDDLE OF WEEK.
2) UNSETTLED PATTERN BEGINS THIS WEEKEND LASTING INTO NEXT
WEEK, INCLUDING A RISK OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, PEAKING THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE ELEVATED SMOKE FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAKE CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA, AVAILABLE
SMOKE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE BULK OF THIS NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EVERY ZONES IN
THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND AND UPPER
80S/LOW 90S FOR THE BEACHES, COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS 70-80 DEG
WILL LEAD TO PEAK HEAT INDICES IN THE 105-109DEG RANGE TODAY,
WITH SOME SPOTS LIKE SEEING APPTS IN EXCESS OF 110 BRIEFLY.
HEAT ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED DAILY SUN INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH WE MAY SEE A DIP IN HEAT MON WITH
GREATER COVERAGE OF RAIN HELPING BUMP MAXTS INTO THE UPPER 80S
AND LOW 90S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE PATTERN FROM TODAY INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT
ALSO WITH SOME IMPORTANT CONSIDERATIONS.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. WITH RIDGING SHIFTING AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE LACK OF
SUBSIDENCE, ALONE, CAN HELP SUPPORT A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN.
ADDITIONALLY, PERSISTENT S-SWERLY FLOW E OF THE TROUGH,
POTENTIALLY WITH A SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION, SHOULD ACT TO ENHANCE
LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE, HEATING OF A
MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD LEAD TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
AND REDUCED INHIBITION IN SUPPORT OF PERIODS OF CONVECTION.
AT THE SURFACE, THE FRONT THAT SUNK INTO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND
YESTERDAY HAS LIFTED BACK NWARD INTO VA, ACTING TO "WARM-
SECTOR" THE ENTIRE FA FOR THE WEEKEND. LEE- SIDE TROUGHING AND,
EVENTUALLY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL REACH THE FA BY MON
SHOULD PROVIDE AREAS OF ENHANCED LOW- LEVEL FORCING THIS
WEEKEND WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE TO ORGANIZED STORM MODES AS TROUGH ALOFT
SHARPENS. BULK OF GUIDANCE SHOWS A MOSTLY DRY DAYTIME FORECAST
WITH A DRY AT 850 REMAINING OVERHEAD UNTIL TONIGHT. THOUGH, SOME
MORE EXCITABLE HIRES SOLUTIONS SHOW POCKETS OF INCREASED
MOISTURE SHUNTED INTO THE AREA FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
LEADING TO SCHC POPS. HAVE STUCK WITH THE NBM SOLUTION WHICH
KEEPS PRECIP ACTIVITY OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY. AFTER SUNSET,
AFTER SUNSET, STORMS THAT DEVELOP W AND N OF THE FA CLOSER TO
THE APPROACHING FRONT AND WITH GREATER MID AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IN THE AFTERNOON WILL EVENTUALLY REACH NWERNMOST ZONES
TONIGHT. THESE STORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE DETERIORATING WHILE
THEY CROSS THE NERN HALF OF THE FA FROM W TO E. SHOULD MORE
ORGANIZED CELLS PERSIST, THEY WILL CARRY A THREAT OF DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. AS SUCH, SPC HAS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FA OUTLINED
IN A MARGINAL RISK (LVL 1/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY, THE SFC FRONT WILL ENTER AND STALL OVER THE NERN HALF OF
THE FA. SPC'S NEW DAY 2 OUTLOOK FOR SUN FEATURES AN EXPANDED
SLIGHT RISK (LVL 2/5) WHICH NOW COVERS THE BULK OF THE AREA. MOISTURE
POOLING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED SUN
AFTERNOON INTO SUN NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. PWATS
PEAK ON THE ORDER OF 2 AND 3/4IN WITH INCREASING AFTERNOON AND
EVENING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ADDITIONALLY, WHILE GUIDANCE REMAINS MIXED, THERE IS A MODEST
SIGNAL FOR LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS INCREASED PROBABILITY
OF DEVELOPMENT A BIT TO 10/30% OVER THE NEXT 2/7 DAYS. THOUGH NO
EXPLICITLY TROPICAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM
LOCALLY, THIS LOW COULD ACT TO ENHANCE RAINFALL ALONG THE SE
COAST BY FURTHER INCREASE GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM ITS EERN
HALF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE SUN'S FRONT LINGERS ACROSS
THE REGION.
TROPICS ASIDE, DETERMINISTIC AND MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SHOW A GOOD SIGNAL FOR SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DURING THIS PERIOD OF ACTIVE
WEATHER. RIGHT NOW THE SIGNAL IS THE STRONGEST ON SUNDAY. THOUGH
THIS COULD BE DEPENDENT ON LINGERING CONVECTION SAT NIGHT AND
HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION IS POSSIBLE SUN. GIVEN INCREASED
FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT AND THE POTENTIAL TAP OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE, HEAVY RAIN AND SOME HYDRO IMPACTS MAY
EVENTUALLY BE REALIZED.
A STRONGER FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH AND CROSS THE AREA WED
INTO THU, POSING THE NEXT THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
NOTE...THERE IS AN AWOS OUTAGE ACROSS NC AND SC THAT STARTED
OVERNIGHT. AMD NOT SKED HAS BEEN ADDED TO PGV. PREDOMINANT VFR
FLIGHT CATS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH
THAT SAID, IT IS AN EARLY SUMMER MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS, AND
THIN GROUND FOG HAS BEEN PLAGUING SELECT TAF TERMINALS LEADING
TO SUBVFR VIS AT TIMES. OBS SHOW OAJ AND ISO AS BEING IMPACTED,
WITH OAJ SHOWING IFR, NO OB FROM PGV BUT AIRPORT CAM HERE
APPEARS CLEAR. HAVE INCLUDED 1HR TEMPO GROUPS FOR THESE TWO
SITES.
MAINLY DRY SAT BUT INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT ARE EXPECTED, WITH GUSTS PUSHING 20 KT AT
TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON. MAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z SUN WHEN STORMS THAT DEVELOPED
TO THE N AND W OF ENC WILL APPROACH THE AREA, EXPECTING TO ONLY
IMPACT INLAND SITES SHOULD THERE BE ANY IMPACT AT ALL. THESE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DETERIORATING AS THEY CROSS RTES FROM
W TO E. POPS<30% KEEP PROB30 GROUPS OUT OF THE TAFS, BUT HAVE
CHANGED THE VCSH TO VCTS WITH THE 12Z TAF CYCLE FOR ISO AND
PGV.
OUTLOOK (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY): THE RISK OF TSRA IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT, BECOMING MORE
LIKELY FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN A FRONT ENTERS AND
STALLS OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUB- VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE TSRA IMPACTS.
MARINE
LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY OBS INDICATE S-SW WINDS 5-10KT INSIDE,
10-15KT OUTSIDE WITH SEAS 1-2 FT. MODERATE SSW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20-30 KT THIS EVENING, PEAKING TONIGHT AROUND
MIDNIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED ALREADY EXISTING SCAS OVER PAMLICO
SOUND AND ALL COASTAL WATERS. HAVE ALSO ADDED THE NEUSE AND BAY
RIVERS TO SCAS; FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25KT ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE
SW TO NE ORIENTED PORTIONS OF THE NEUSE RIVER NEAR PAMLICO
SOUND. OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS, FREQUENT GALE- FORCE GUSTS
STILL LOOK POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, BUT LESS LIKELY. SEAS WILL QUICKLY RESPOND TO THE
WINDS, BUILDING TO 4-7FT TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY): SUN'S FRONT STALLS
OVER THE AREA LINGERING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. KEEPING ELEVATED
WINDS, SEAS, AND TSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. FOR THE OUTER
WATERS, ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS MAY LAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
A STRONGER FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH AND CROSS REGIONAL
WATERS MID TO LATE WEEK, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRENGTHENING
SW WINDS AND TSTORM CHANCES.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-
203>205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EDT
SUNDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
FOR AMZ137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
DISCUSSION...CQD/CEB
AVIATION...MS/CEB
MARINE...CQD/CEB
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