058
FXUS62 KMHX 191813
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
213 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 8 PM.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT AND HUMID FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HEAT HEADLINES ACTIVE
FOR TODAY AND POTENTIALLY AGAIN ON TUE AND WED.
2) UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. RISK
OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
3) AFTER A STRONG FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE WED INTO
THU, A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAT END OF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS CHANCES REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO UNTIL NEXT
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY.
HEAT ADV IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
105-110 DEG THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WE WILL SEE A DIP IN HEAT MON
WITH GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY AND MORE RAIN
HELPING BUMP DOWN MAXTS INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S, BUT
SWERN ZONES MAY STILL REQUIRE HEAT HEADLINES. TUE AND WED MAXTS
CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW 90S FOR MOST AND AFTERNOON TDS
APPROACHING 80DEG WILL BRING HEAT HEADLINES BACK INTO PLAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. WITH RIDGING SHIFTING AWAY FROM THE AREA. PERSISTENT
S-SWERLY FLOW E OF THE TROUGH, POTENTIALLY WITH A SUBTROPICAL
CONNECTION, SHOULD ACT TO ENHANCE LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. MEANWHILE, HEATING OF A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD LEAD TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND REDUCED INHIBITION IN
SUPPORT OF PERIODS OF CONVECTION. LEE- SIDE TROUGHING AND,
EVENTUALLY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL REACH THE FA BY MON
SHOULD PROVIDE AREAS OF ENHANCED LOW- LEVEL FORCING TODAY WITH
GRADUALLY IMPROVING MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE
CONDUCIVE TO ORGANIZED STORM MODES AS TROUGH ALOFT SHARPENS.
TODAY, THE SFC FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED THROUGH CENTRAL VA WILL
APPROACH THE FA. GENERAL TREND APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT SLOW DOWN
OF THE FRONT ENTERING THE NERN FA, SOMETIME THIS EVENING OR THE
FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. SPC'S OUTLOOK FOR TODAY FEATURES A
SLIGHT RISK (LVL 2/5) FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS BLOSSOMING ACROSS THE AREA QUICKLY THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS SBCAPES ON THE ORDER OF
4-5 KJ/KG ACROSS THE AREA WITH BULK SHEAR 20-30 KT. MOISTURE
POOLING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. PWATS PEAK
ON THE ORDER OF 2 AND 3/4IN IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING
AFTERNOON AND EVENING INSTABILITY. MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, HEAVY RAIN AND FREQ LIGHTNING
LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WPC CONTINUES ITS SLIGHT RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY, HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS BEGUN ISSUING ADVISORIES FOR
TD TWO. THOUGH NO EXPLICITLY TROPICAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM
THIS SYSTEM LOCALLY, THIS LOW COULD ACT TO ENHANCE RAINFALL
ALONG THE SE COAST BY FURTHER INCREASING GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT
FROM ITS EERN HALF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE STALLED
LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION.
TROPICS ASIDE, DETERMINISTIC AND MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SHOW A GOOD SIGNAL FOR SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DURING THIS PERIOD OF ACTIVE
WEATHER. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE REMAINS THE STRONGEST SIGNAL
FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH TUE. GIVEN INCREASED FORCING FROM
THE APPROACHING FRONT AND THE POTENTIAL TAP OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE, HEAVY RAIN AND SOME HYDRO IMPACTS MAY EVENTUALLY BE
REALIZED.
MON, THE STALLED BOUNDARY LOCATED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE NEUSE
RIVER AND THE NC/VA BORDER, INLAND TROUGHING PERSISTING, AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE S AND SW WILL KEEP CLOUDY AND
ACTIVE FORECAST IN PLACE. FORTUNATELY, THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER NECONUS WILL BE PUSHING OFFSHORE, ENDING THE LITTLE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. ISO STRONG STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. MON NIGHT, THE BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK N,
"WARM- SECTORING" THE FA ONCE AGAIN FOR TUE AND WED.
A STRONGER FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH AND CROSS THE AREA WED
INTO THU, POSING THE NEXT THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THIS FROPA APPEARS MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF STRONGER STORMS WITH A SHARPER TROUGH ALOFT
DIGGING FURTHER S THAN THE WEEKEND TROUGH, WITH THE BASE OF THIS
TROUGH ACTUALLY CROSSING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
KEY MESSAGE 3...WED/THU STRONGER FRONT IS FORECAST TO MAKE IT
THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE LAND AREA OF ENC, BUT STILL STALL
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY N-NEERLY FLOW LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND, CUTTING DOWN ON THE HEAT (MID TO UPPER 80S/UPPER
60S SPLITS INTO THE WEEKEND). SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL
BEHIND THE MIDWEEK FRONT, BUT THE MULTI DAY PERIOD OF SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST COULD LEAD TO HYDRO ISSUES.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR FLIGHT CATS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF STORMS INTO TONIGHT WITH SW
BREEZE. SHOWERS AND STORMS BLOSSOMING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH INCREASING COVERAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. PERIODS OF SUB-VFR LIKELY. A FEW STRONGER STORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, HEAVY
RAIN, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT POST-
FRONTAL STRATUS AND POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND (NORTH) OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT AND MON MORNING. BEST
CHANCES NORTH OF HWY 70. VFR EXPECTED TO RETURN BY LATE MON
MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED AGAIN
MONDAY, WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISO STRONGER STORMS.
OUTLOOK (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY): ANOTHER APPROACHING
FRONT, THIS ONE LOOKING STRONGER, RENEWS STRONGER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WED INTO THU.
MARINE
LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY OBS INDICATE SW WINDS 10-20 KT GUSTING
20-30 KT, STRONGEST OVER THE GULF STREAM, WITH SEAS 2-4 FT
NORTH OF HATTERAS AND 4-7 FT SOUTH. SCAS CONTINUE FOR PAMLICO
SOUND AND NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY, KEEPING LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
AND MODERATE TO BREEZY S-SW WINDS SOUTH. SEAS WILL PEAK THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, GRAD SUBSIDING TO 3-5 FT MONDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE WATERS THROUGH MONDAY. SCT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LIKELY
WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, HEAVY RAIN AND FREQ LIGHTNING.
OUTLOOK (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY): FOR THE OUTER WATERS,
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS MAY LAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. A
STRONGER FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH AND CROSS REGIONAL WATERS
MID TO LATE WEEK, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRENGTHENING SW
WINDS AND TSTORM CHANCES, MAINLY LATER TUE AND WED. SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER TUE CONT INTO WED NIGHT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ044>047-
079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-
196-199-204-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-
158.
DISCUSSION...CQD/CEB
AVIATION...CQD
MARINE...CQD
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