439
FXUS62 KMHX 200957
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
557 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR DUPLIN AND ONSLOW COUNTIES.
LEFT MARINE HEADLINES AS IS FOR NOW, POTENTIAL STRONGER WINDS
AND SEAS COULD LINGER FURTHER INTO THE MORNING THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED.
AVIATION DISCO UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT AND HUMID FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SMALLER FOOTPRINT OF
HEAT HEADLINES ACTIVE FOR TODAY PENDING CLOUD COVERAGE AND
PRECIP INITIATION. HOTTER TUE AND PERHAPS AGAIN ON WED.
2) A WEEK THAT WILL HELP DROUGHT CONDITIONS AHEAD. UNSETTLED
PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK WITH AT LEAST A RISK OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
3) AFTER A STRONG FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE WED INTO
THU, A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAT END OF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS CHANCES REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO UNTIL NEXT
WEEKEND KEEPING LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT DUE TO RAIN IN THE CARDS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...BULK OF THE AREA WILL SEE COOLER TEMPS THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY THANKS TO CLOUD COVERAGE AND RAIN. A SMALL HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR DUPLIN AND ONSLOW COUNTIES WHERE THE
LIKELIHOOD OF THE SUN PEAKING THROUGH DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM LAST
NIGHT'S AND TODAY'S CONVECTION WILL BE THE HIGHEST. APPT VALUES
IN EXCESS OF 105DEG ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE ZONES FOR A FEW HOURS
FROM MID- DAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPS. WHILE COOLER, APPTS WILL STILL BE
IN THE UPPER 90S FOR AREAS ALONG AND N OF THE FRONT, MAINLY N OF
HWY 70. TUE AND WED, MAXTS CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S
FOR MOST WITH LESS CLOUDINESS ON DECK. AFTERNOON TDS
APPROACHING 80DEG WITH THESE TEMPS WILL BRING HEAT HEADLINES
BACK INTO PLAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE STALLED BOUNDARY, PERSISTENT INLAND TROUGHING, AND PLENTY
OF MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE S AND SW WILL KEEP CLOUDY AND ACTIVE
FORECAST IN PLACE. FORTUNATELY, THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER NECONUS WILL BE PUSHING OFFSHORE, ENDING THE LITTLE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVERAGE WILL DAMPEN HEATING FROM WHAT
WE HAVE EXPERIENCED OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN 4-6KJ/KG SBCAPES WERE
REALIZED ALMOST EVERY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT WE'LL STILL GET
INTO THE 2-4KJ/KG RANGE, WHICH IS NOTHING TO SCOFF AT. ISO
STRONG STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. PWATS
STILL GREATER THAN 2IN WILL KEEP THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WHICH
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT.
TONIGHT, THE BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK N, "WARM- SECTORING" THE FA
ONCE AGAIN FOR TUE AND WED.
TUE FEATURES SLIGHT DIP IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH DRIER
850-700MB LAYER GETTING PUSHED UP THE SECONUS COAST AHEAD OF THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH PUSHES SE ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY, LEADING
TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME POPS OF 20-40% THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
A STRONGER FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH AND CROSS THE AREA LATE WED
INTO THU, POSING THE NEXT THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATER IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THIS FROPA APPEARS
MORE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONGER STORMS WITH A SHARPER TROUGH ALOFT
DIGGING FURTHER S THAN THIS WEEKEND'S TROUGH. MOISTURE INCREASES
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WITH LOW TO MIDLEVEL FLOW OPENING UP
MOISTURE ADVECTION CHANNEL FROM THE E SIDE OF WHAT IS NOW
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES
ISSUING ADVISORIES FOR TD2, BUT POSES NO TROPICAL THREAT TO ENC
AT THIS TIME, AS IT IS FORECAST TO MEANDER SLOWLY W ACROSS THE
NERN GULF OF AMERICA.
KEY MESSAGE 3...WED/THU STRONGER FRONT IS FORECAST TO MAKE IT
THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE LAND AREA OF ENC, BUT STILL STALL
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY N-NEERLY FLOW LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND, CUTTING DOWN ON THE HEAT (MID TO UPPER 80S/UPPER
60S SPLITS INTO THE WEEKEND). SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL
BEHIND THE MIDWEEK FRONT, BUT THE MULTI DAY PERIOD OF SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST COULD LEAD TO HYDRO ISSUES.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS AREA TERMINALS BUT
STILL SOME WANING CONVECTION ALL AROUND THE EASTERN HALF OF NC
WILL KEEP SPOTTY STORM BASED SUBVFR FLIGHT CATS AROUND FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS. NEAR TERM THREATS ARE HIGHEST FOR EWN AND PGV.
GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTING POST- FRONTAL LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT STARTING AROUND 08-09Z, ALTHOUGH PLACEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY AT THIS TIME IS UNCERTAIN. MOST LIKELY TERMINALS TO SEE
MVFR ARE INLAND (ISO AND PGV) BUT MAY STRETCH AS FAR SOUTH AS
DPL, WITH LOW (20%) ODDS OF SEEING IFR. SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG
IS ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN LIKELY LIGHT WINDS, BUT HIGHER ODDS FOR
THIS ARE NORTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER WHERE SKIES WILL BE CLEARER.
VFR EXPECTED TO RETURN BY LATE THIS MORNING. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT, WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISO STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
OUTLOOK (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY): BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK N
TOWARD VA TONIGHT IMPROVING LOW LEVEL MIXING WITH AN INCREASING
SWERLY BREEZE AND END TO RAIN THREAT. MORE CLIMO POPS TUE
KEEPING VFR PROBS HIGHER. A STRONGER FRONT APPROACHES LATE WED,
RENEWING STRONGER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WED INTO THU.
THIS FRONT WILL STALL OFFSHORE WHERE IT WILL LINGER INTO THE
WEEKEND, KEEPING RAIN AND SUBVFR FLIGHT CAT THREAT UP.
MARINE
LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY OBS INDICATE SW WINDS 10-20 KT GUSTING
20-30 KT, STRONGEST OVER THE GULF STREAM, WITH SEAS 1-3 FT
NORTH OF HATTERAS AND 4-7 FT SOUTH. SCAS CONTINUE FOR NEARSHORE
COASTAL WATERS, AND HAVE BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL NOON WITH SEAS
REMAINING ELEVATED WITH PERSISTENT SW WINDS TO THE S OF THE
BOUNDARY. N OF THE BOUNDARY, MUCH CALMER CONDITIONS IN PLACE
WITH WINDS AOB 10KT OUT OF THE NE-E. SEAS GRAD SUBSIDING TO 3-5
FT MONDAY MORNING. AS WINDS COME DOWN.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
MONDAY. SCT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LIKELY WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS, HEAVY RAIN AND FREQ LIGHTNING.
OUTLOOK (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY): FOR THE OUTER WATERS,
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS MAY LAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. A
STRONGER FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH AND CROSS REGIONAL WATERS
MID TO LATE WEEK, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRENGTHENING SW
WINDS AND TSTORM CHANCES, MAINLY LATER TUE AND WED. SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER TUE CONT INTO WED NIGHT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ090-198-199.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM EDT EARLY THIS
MORNING FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.
DISCUSSION...CQD/CEB
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...CQD/CEB
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