399
FXUS62 KMHX 201908
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
308 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS STARTING ON
TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT AND HUMID FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR HEAT
HEADLINES ON TUE AND WED.
2) A WEEK THAT WILL HELP DROUGHT CONDITIONS AHEAD. UNSETTLED PATTERN
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK WITH AT LEAST A RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
3) AFTER A STRONG FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE WED INTO THU, A
BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAT END OF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH SHOWERS AND
TSTORMS CHANCES REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND KEEPING
LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT DUE TO RAIN IN THE CARDS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...STALLED FRONT BISECTS THE HWY 64 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A SECONDARY LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOTED ALONG
THE HWY 70 CORRIDOR. THESE TWO BOUNDARIES HAVE BEEN THE FOCUS
FOR ONGOING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE ONGOING CLOUD COVER TEMPS OUTSIDE OF THE ONSLOW AND
DUPLIN COUNTIES HAVE NOT INCREASED MUCH TODAY WHICH HAS KEPT THE
AREA IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S TODAY. HAVE KEPT HEAT HEADLINES
IN PLACE ACROSS DUPLIN AND ONSLOW COUNTIES. AS WE GET INTO
TOMORROW AND WED, LESS CLOUD COVER AND WARMER TEMPS AS HIGHS GET
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S EACH DAY, HEAT INDICES COULD RANGE FROM
105-109F EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS A LARGER FOOTPRINT OF ENC. AS A
RESULT COULD SEE A BROADER HEAT HEADLINE TOMORROW FOR ENC ONCE
THE ONGOING HEAT ADVISORY ENDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH SEVERAL FACTORS FORECAST TO INCREASE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS WEEK.
A STALLED BOUNDARY CURRENTLY BISECTING HWY 64 AND A REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG HWY 70, COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT INLAND
TROUGHING, AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE S AND SW WILL
KEEP A CLOUDY AND ACTIVE FORECAST IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. FORTUNATELY, THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
NECONUS IS PUSHING OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON, ENDING THE LITTLE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. A
FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVERAGE HAS DAMPENED HEATING TODAY FROM
WHAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH 2000-3000 J/KG
MLCAPE CURRENTLY NOTED ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON. ISO STRONG
STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. PWATS STILL
GREATER THAN 2" WILL KEEP THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT. TONIGHT, THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DISSIPATES AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK
N, "WARM- SECTORING" THE FA ONCE AGAIN FOR TUE AND WED.
TUE FEATURES SLIGHT DIP IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH DRIER 850-700MB
LAYER GETTING PUSHED UP THE SECONUS COAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER
TROUGH WHICH WILL BE PUSHING SE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY,
LEADING TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME POPS OF 20-40% THROUGH TUE
NIGHT.
A STRONG FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH AND CROSS THE AREA LATE WED
INTO THU, POSING THE NEXT THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN FOR THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE APPEARS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONGER
STORMS WITH A SHARPER TROUGH ALOFT DIGGING FURTHER S THAN THIS
WEEKEND'S TROUGH. MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WITH LOW TO
MIDLEVEL FLOW OPENING UP MOISTURE ADVECTION CHANNEL FROM THE E SIDE
OF WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
CONTINUES ISSUING ADVISORIES FOR TD2, BUT POSES NO TROPICAL THREAT
TO ENC AT THIS TIME, AS IT IS FORECAST TO MEANDER SLOWLY W ACROSS
THE NERN GULF OF AMERICA.
KEY MESSAGE 3...WED/THU STRONGER FRONT IS FORECAST TO MAKE IT
THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE LAND AREA OF ENC, BUT STILL STALL
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY N-NEERLY FLOW LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND, CUTTING DOWN ON THE HEAT (LOW TO MID 80S/UPPER 60S SPLITS
INTO THE WEEKEND). SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL BEHIND THE MIDWEEK
FRONT, BUT THE MULTI DAY PERIOD OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST COULD
LEAD TO HYDRO ISSUES.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HAVE A MIX OF VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS (PRIMARILY REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY) DUE TO ONGOING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH VISIBILITY IN THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY AROUND
1-4 SM. HAVE ALL TAF SITES AND SURROUNDING AREAS UNDER TEMPO
GROUPS BETWEEN 18-00Z THIS AFTERNOON WITH OAJ/EWN HAVING A TEMPO
GROUP BETWEEN 18-21Z AND ISO/PGV BETWEEN 20-00Z TODAY. IN
ADDITION TO THE REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN ANY STORM THAT IMPACTS THE TAF SITS OR
SURROUNDING AIRPORTS. AS WE GET CLOSER TO 00Z TONIGHT EXPECT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO EITHER DEPART THE AREA OR DISSIPATE AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR HWY 64 TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
ESSENTIALLY WARM SECTORING THE AREA AND ENDING THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT BETWEEN 00-06Z TONIGHT. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FLOW
TONIGHT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY LOW STRATUS OR FOG THREAT TONIGHT SO
ONCE CONDITIONS GO VFR THIS EVENING THEY SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY
INTO TUE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK (TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY): MORE CLIMO POPS TUE
KEEPING VFR PROBS HIGHER. A STRONGER FRONT APPROACHES LATE WED,
RENEWING STRONGER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WED INTO THU.
THIS FRONT WILL STALL OFFSHORE WHERE IT WILL LINGER INTO THE
WEEKEND, KEEPING RAIN AND SUBVFR FLIGHT CAT THREAT UP INTO THIS
WEEKEND.
MARINE
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONT CURRENTLY BISECTING THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS JUST SOUTH OF ROANOKE ISLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT, SE-E WINDS AT 5-10 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS ARE NOTED WHILE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FRONT S-SW WINDS AT 5-10 KTS ARE NOTED. AT THE SAME TIME, SEAS
OF 2-4 FT ARE NOTED ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. FINALLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OCCURING ACROSS OUR WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING A THREAT FOR LOCALLY ENHANCED WINDS AND
SEAS TO THE AREA. AS WE GET INTO TONIGHT, SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DECREASE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT LIFTS
NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME SW'RLY ACROSS ALL WATERS
AT 5-15 KTS WITH 3-5 FT SEAS NOTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
INTO TUE MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN TIGHTENS LATE TUE
MORNING INTO TUE EVENING AS A STRONG FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH
FROM THE N AND W ALLOWING WINDS TO INCREASE FURTHER TO 15-25 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ACROSS ALL WATERS TUE AFTERNOON WITH
4-7 FT SEAS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE ISSUANCE OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR ALL WATERS STARTING UP BETWEEN 15-19Z TOMORROW
AND PERSISTING INTO THURS. THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS UP TOWARDS
35 KTS MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS BUT FELT THIS
THREAT WAS LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A GALE WATCH FOR NOW.
OUTLOOK (TUE NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY): FOR THE OUTER WATERS,
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURS. THIS IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONGER FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH
AND CROSS REGIONAL WATERS LATE WED INTO THURS, KEEPING ELEVATED
WINDS AND SEAS IN PLACE AND INCREASED TSTORM CHANCES, MAINLY.
FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY THURS WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO A NE'RLY
DIRECTION AND EASING TO A 10-15 KTS WITH SEAS FALLING TO 2-5 FT
THUS ENDING THE SCA THREAT BY THURS NIGHT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ090-198-199.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 5 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR AMZ131-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR AMZ135-150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR AMZ136-137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 2 PM EDT THURSDAY
FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR AMZ156-158.
DISCUSSION...CEB/RCF
AVIATION...CEB/RCF
MARINE...CEB/RCF
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