156
FXUS62 KMHX 210137
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
937 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT AND HUMID FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR HEAT
HEADLINES ON TUE AND WED.
2) A WEEK THAT WILL HELP DROUGHT CONDITIONS AHEAD. UNSETTLED PATTERN
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK WITH AT LEAST A RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
3) AFTER A STRONG FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE WED INTO THU, A
BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAT END OF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH SHOWERS AND
TSTORMS CHANCES REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND KEEPING
LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT DUE TO RAIN IN THE CARDS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AS WE GET INTO TOMORROW AND WED, LESS CLOUD
COVER AND WARMER TEMPS AS HIGHS GET INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID
90S. COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S EACH DAY,
HEAT INDICES COULD RANGE FROM 105-109F EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS A
LARGER FOOTPRINT OF ENC. AS A RESULT COULD SEE A BROADER HEAT
HEADLINE TOMORROW FOR ENC ONCE THE ONGOING HEAT ADVISORY ENDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH SEVERAL FACTORS FORECAST TO INCREASE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS WEEK.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND
THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS LATE THIS EVENING. EARLIER CONVECTION
HAS DISSIPATED, BUT SHOWERS AND STORMS NOW APPROACHING THE
COASTAL PLAIN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL SVR THREAT REMAINS LOW THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN.
TONIGHT, THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DISSIPATES AND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK N, "WARM- SECTORING" THE FA ONCE AGAIN FOR
TUE AND WED.
TUE FEATURES SLIGHT DIP IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH DRIER 850-700MB
LAYER GETTING PUSHED UP THE SECONUS COAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER
TROUGH WHICH WILL BE PUSHING SE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY,
LEADING TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME POPS OF 20-40% THROUGH TUE
NIGHT.
A STRONG FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH AND CROSS THE AREA LATE WED
INTO THU, POSING THE NEXT THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN FOR THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE APPEARS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONGER
STORMS WITH A SHARPER TROUGH ALOFT DIGGING FURTHER S THAN THIS
WEEKEND'S TROUGH. MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WITH LOW TO
MIDLEVEL FLOW OPENING UP MOISTURE ADVECTION CHANNEL FROM THE E SIDE
OF WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
CONTINUES ISSUING ADVISORIES FOR TD2, BUT POSES NO TROPICAL THREAT
TO ENC AT THIS TIME, AS IT IS FORECAST TO MEANDER SLOWLY W ACROSS
THE NERN GULF OF AMERICA.
KEY MESSAGE 3...WED/THU STRONGER FRONT IS FORECAST TO MAKE IT
THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE LAND AREA OF ENC, BUT STILL STALL
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY N-NEERLY FLOW LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND, CUTTING DOWN ON THE HEAT (LOW TO MID 80S/UPPER 60S SPLITS
INTO THE WEEKEND). SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL BEHIND THE MIDWEEK
FRONT, BUT THE MULTI DAY PERIOD OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST COULD
LEAD TO HYDRO ISSUES.
AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.
SHOWERS AND STORMS APPROACHING THE WESTERN TERMINALS AND COULD
IMPACT BETWEEN 2-4Z. AFTER EXPECT CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE, WHILE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD. STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL FLOW TONIGHT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY LOW STRATUS OR FOG
THREAT TONIGHT SO ONCE CONDITIONS GO VFR THIS EVENING THEY
SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY INTO TUE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK (TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY): MORE CLIMO POPS TUE
KEEPING VFR PROBS HIGHER. A STRONGER FRONT APPROACHES LATE WED,
RENEWING STRONGER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WED INTO THU.
THIS FRONT WILL STALL OFFSHORE WHERE IT WILL LINGER INTO THE
WEEKEND, KEEPING RAIN AND SUBVFR FLIGHT CAT THREAT UP INTO THIS
WEEKEND.
MARINE
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONT CURRENTLY BISECTING THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS JUST SOUTH OF ROANOKE ISLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT, SE-E WINDS AT 5-10 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS ARE NOTED WHILE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FRONT S-SW WINDS AT 5-10 KTS ARE NOTED. AT THE SAME TIME, SEAS
OF 2-4 FT ARE NOTED ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. FINALLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OCCURING ACROSS OUR WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING A THREAT FOR LOCALLY ENHANCED WINDS AND
SEAS TO THE AREA. AS WE GET INTO TONIGHT, SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DECREASE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT LIFTS
NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME SW'RLY ACROSS ALL WATERS
AT 5-15 KTS WITH 3-5 FT SEAS NOTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
INTO TUE MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN TIGHTENS LATE TUE
MORNING INTO TUE EVENING AS A STRONG FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH
FROM THE N AND W ALLOWING WINDS TO INCREASE FURTHER TO 15-25 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ACROSS ALL WATERS TUE AFTERNOON WITH
4-7 FT SEAS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE ISSUANCE OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR ALL WATERS STARTING UP BETWEEN 15-19Z TOMORROW
AND PERSISTING INTO THURS. THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS UP TOWARDS
35 KTS MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS BUT FELT THIS
THREAT WAS LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A GALE WATCH FOR NOW.
OUTLOOK (TUE NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY): FOR THE OUTER WATERS,
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURS. THIS IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONGER FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH
AND CROSS REGIONAL WATERS LATE WED INTO THURS, KEEPING ELEVATED
WINDS AND SEAS IN PLACE AND INCREASED TSTORM CHANCES, MAINLY.
FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY THURS WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO A NE'RLY
DIRECTION AND EASING TO A 10-15 KTS WITH SEAS FALLING TO 2-5 FT
THUS ENDING THE SCA THREAT BY THURS NIGHT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ195-196-199-204-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 5 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR AMZ131-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR AMZ135-150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR AMZ136-137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 2 PM EDT THURSDAY
FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR AMZ156-158.
DISCUSSION...CQD/CEB/RCF
AVIATION...CQD/CEB/RCF
MARINE...CEB/RCF
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