732
FXUS62 KMHX 211003
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
603 AM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SWERN PORTIONS OF ENC.
GALE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR SELECT WATERS FOR TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LAST DAY OF DANGEROUS HEAT FOR THE AREA TODAY.
2) A WEEK THAT WILL HELP DROUGHT CONDITIONS AHEAD. UNSETTLED PATTERN
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK WITH AT LEAST A RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THU.
3) AFTER THE STRONG FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THU, A BRIEF
REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAT, THOUGH SHOWERS AND TSTORMS CHANCES
REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND KEEPING DAILY LOCALIZED
FLOODING CONCERNS IN PLACE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...TODAY AND WED, LESS CLOUD COVER AND WARMER
TEMPS AS HIGHS GET INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S EACH DAY, APPTS WILL BE NEAR
100 FOR MOST OF THE AREA, THOUGH SWERN ZONES COULD EXCEED 105DEG
FOR A FEW HOURS. BECAUSE OF THIS, HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY
FOR THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE FROM DEBRIS
CLOUDS WILL END THE HEAT THREAT EARLIER IN THE DAY THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS, BUT HEAT FOR AREAS THAT DON'T SEE RAIN WILL
LIKELY EXCEED CRITERIA. GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS WED KEEPS
T/MAXTS AT BAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH SEVERAL FACTORS FORECAST TO INCREASE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS WEEK.
FRONT THAT WAS STALLED OVER THE AREA YESTERDAY HAS LIFTED BACK
INTO VA LAST NIGHT, "WARM- SECTORING" THE FA ONCE AGAIN TODAY
UNTIL A STRONG FRONT CROSS THE AREA LATE WED/THU.
TODAY FEATURES A SLIGHT DIP IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH DRIER
850-700MB LAYER GETTING PUSHED UP THE SECONUS COAST AHEAD OF THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL BE PUSHING SE ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY, LEADING TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME POPS OF 20-40%
THROUGH THIS EVENING, QUICKLY COMING TO AN END AFTER SUNSET.
GREATEST DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE LIE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
AREA WHERE SPC HAS AN ENHANCED RISK (LVL 3/5) CENTERED ACROSS
THE MIDATLANTIC, WITH A SLIGHT RISK (LVL 2/5) STRETCHING SWWARD
INTO WERN TN. ENC IS CLIPPED WITH A SLIVER OF SLIGHT AND
MARGINAL RISKS (LVL 2 & 1/5). THESE STORMS IN OUR AREA ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED, AND RELATIVELY FAST
MOVING COMPARED TO THE SLOW MOVERS WE'VE HAD LATELY. FASTER
STORM MOTIONS AND LITTLE BIT LESS ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL LEAD
TO A LOWER FLOODING RAIN CONCERN.
A STRONG FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH AND CROSS THE AREA MID TO
LATE WEEK. 00Z HIRES MODEL SUITE HAS COME IN SLOWER WITH FROPA
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS' RUNS. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL NOT
ARRIVE ON OUR NWERN DOORSTEP UNTIL EARLY MORNING THU. SO WED
NIGHT COULD BE ANOTHER SCENARIO WHERE CONVECTION BUILT UP
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WED APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND
ENTERING THE AREA, BUT DETERIORATING SOME AND LOSING MOMENTUM
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, PULSING BACK UP THU MORNING. THESE
LIKELY PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSE THE NEXT
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE APPEARS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONGER STORMS WITH A
SHARPER TROUGH ALOFT DIGGING FURTHER S THAN THIS WEEKEND'S
TROUGH. MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WITH LOW TO
MIDLEVEL FLOW OPENING UP MOISTURE ADVECTION CHANNEL FROM THE E
SIDE OF WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL STORM BERTHA. THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES ISSUING ADVISORIES FOR BERTHA, BUT
POSES NO TROPICAL THREAT TO ENC AT THIS TIME, AS IT IS FORECAST
TO MEANDER SLOWLY W ACROSS THE NERN GULF OF AMERICA.
KEY MESSAGE 3...WED/THU STRONGER FRONT IS FORECAST TO MAKE IT
THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE LAND AREA OF ENC, BUT STILL STALL
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY N-NEERLY FLOW LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND, CUTTING DOWN ON THE HEAT (LOW TO MID 80S/UPPER 60S
SPLITS INTO THE WEEKEND). SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL BEHIND
THE MIDWEEK FRONT, BUT THE MULTI DAY PERIOD OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST COULD LEAD TO HYDRO ISSUES.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR FLIGHT CATS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION
TONIGHT, THOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR FLIGHT CATS DUE
TO PATCHY FOG AND/OR SOME LOW LEVEL STRATUS BEFORE LIGHT WINDS
PICK BACK UP BEHIND THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NWARD THROUGH VA.
MORE CLIMO POPS TODAY KEEPING VFR PROBS HIGHER. 20-40% TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON WORKING FROM SW TO NE. SHOWER ACTIVITY ENDS SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET. SWERN WINDS STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY BECOMING
GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE
OVERNIGHT, 10-15KT, KEEPING FOG THREAT DOWN. LOW LEVEL STRATUS
POSSIBLE, BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN SCT OR LESS AT THIS POINT.
OUTLOOK (TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY): A STRONGER FRONT
APPROACHES LATE WED, RENEWING STRONGER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WED INTO THU. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OFFSHORE WHERE IT
WILL LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND, KEEPING RAIN AND SUBVFR FLIGHT CAT
THREAT UP INTO THIS WEEKEND.
MARINE
WINDS SWERLY ACROSS ALL WATERS AT 5-10 KTS INSIDE WITH 10-20KT
OUTSIDE. SEAS PREDOMINANTLY WIND WAVES 2-4FT@6SEC. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS THROUGH THE DAY AS A STRONG FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE N AND W ALLOWING WINDS TO INCREASE FURTHER TO
15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ACROSS ALL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH 4-7 FT SEAS. HAVE ISSUED GALE WATCHES FOR
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FOR PAMLICO SOUND AND OFFSHORE WATERS N OF
OCRACOKE INLET WHERE A LARGE CHUNK OF THESE ZONES COULD SEE
EXTENDED PERIODS OF 34-35KT GUSTS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
HOURS OF LOCALIZED 34KT GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS ADJACENT TO
OREGON INLET FROM AROUND SUNSET TO 0200EDT, BUT THE MAJORITY OF
THESE ZONES WILL STAY AROUND THE 30KT GUSTS RANGE. SHOWERS AND
TSTORM CHANCES BECOME CONFINED TO THE GSTREAM WATERS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY): FOR THE OUTER WATERS,
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURS. THIS IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONGER FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH
AND CROSS REGIONAL WATERS LATE WED INTO THURS, KEEPING ELEVATED
WINDS AND SEAS IN PLACE AND INCREASED TSTORM CHANCES, MAINLY.
FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY THURS WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO A NE'RLY
DIRECTION AND EASING TO A 10-15 KTS WITH SEAS FALLING TO 2-5 FT
THUS ENDING THE SCA THREAT BY THURS NIGHT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ090>092-094-193-194-198-199.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-196-
199-204-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ131-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR AMZ135.
GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
AMZ180.
GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
AMZ182-184.
DISCUSSION...CEB/RCF
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...CEB/RCF
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