691
FXUS62 KMHX 222336
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
736 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS DECREASED SLIGHTLY FROM 4-6" TO 3-5" THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS ENDED AS OF 7 PM.
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT EASTERN NC THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A RISK OF FLOODING
AND A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...THIS EVENING, A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN VA
TO MIDDLE TN. MEANWHILE, A MOSTLY STATIONARY PREFRONTAL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE TIDEWATER REGION OF VA TO WESTERN NC. THE
PREFRONTAL TROUGH HAS BEEN CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE ALL DAY TODAY
THANKS TO A PERSISTENT SW LLJ FEEDING AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE INTO
THE BOUNDARY. WHILE THE LLJ IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOME, AN AREA
OF DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THAT
TROUGH THROUGH THE NIGHT, FAVORING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION.
OF NOTE, A SMALL SW TO NE ORIENTED LINEAR CONVECTIVE FEATURE
HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED AROUND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW NC, AND
IS MOVING EAST. THE AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS LINE SHOULD
SUPPORT A CONTINUATION ACROSS NORTHERN NC, AIDED BY MODEST WAA
AND A CONTINUED INFLUX OF MOISTURE WITHIN SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW. IT
MAY ENCOUNTER A MORE DEEPLY MIXED, AND MORE CAPPED, AIRMASS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NC, BUT COULD POTENTIALLY HOLD
TOGETHER IN SOME FORM OR FASHION ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN REACHES
OF ENC AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING WITH A GUSTY WIND RISK (40-50
MPH).
LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH FROM VA INTO NORTHERN
NC AS THE ABOVE-MENTIONED FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MORE OR
LESS MERGE. THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS ENC
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY, AND MAY NOT PUSH OFFSHORE UNTIL
SOMETIME ON SATURDAY.
A PLUME OF ANOMALOUS, AND DEEP, MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO RESIDE
ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE, WITH LIFT AIDED BY PERIODS OF
WAA AND LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT FROM PASSING SHORTWAVES. RAINFALL
RATES WILL BE AIDED BY MODERATE INSTABILITY THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY, THEN INSTABILITY BEGINS TO WANE AFTER THAT. THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUPPORTS PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL RATES WITH AN ACCOMPANYING RISK OF FLOODING AND FLASH
FLOODING. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY VARIOUS FORECAST AIDS,
INCLUDING THE GEFS AND ECMWF EFI, WHICH SHOW A STRONG SIGNAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN OVER THE AREA.
PERHAPS THE MAIN COMPLICATING FACTOR IS WHERE THE STRONGEST
LOW- LEVEL FORCING WILL RESIDE AS THIS IS LIKELY TO BE WHERE THE
THE MOST INTENSE RAINFALL RATES WILL OCCUR. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE STRONGEST CONVERGENCE AND MOST INTENSE
RATES SHIFTING SOUTH A BIT QUICKER DURING THE DAY THURSDAY,
WHICH WOULD THEN SETUP MORE OF A WIDESPREAD MODERATE OVERRUNNING
RAINFALL SETUP FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE
THIS WOULD STILL SUPPORT NOTABLE RAINFALL TOTALS, A FASTER SHIFT
SOUTH WOULD TEND TO LOWER RAINFALL TOTALS SOME THANKS TO A
SHORTER RESIDENCE TIME OF THE MOST INTENSE RATES. IN LIGHT OF
THIS, GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDED DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH RAINFALL TOTALS.
THIS DOESN'T CHANGE THE MESSAGING MUCH, BUT THE FLOOD WATCH WILL
NOW REFLECT 3-5" VS 4-6". THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW AREAS TO GET UP TO 5-8" WHERE THOSE MOST INTENSE RATES LAST
THE LONGEST.
WHILE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING IS THE PRIMARY RISK, THERE MAY BE
JUST ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A MARGINAL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM RISK THROUGH FRIDAY. DEEP, MOIST PROFILES SHOULD
TEND TO FAVOR WATER-LOADED DOWNDRAFTS, BUT SOME ENHANCED LOW-
LEVEL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS, LEADING TO AN
INCREASED RISK OF SHRA AND TSRA AND LOW CIGS. CURRENTLY GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TREND LIGHTER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY,
GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.
REDUCTIONS TO VIS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER SHRA AND
TSRA, WITH PERIODS OF LIFR/IFR VIS POSSIBLE. THE TIMING OF SHRA
AND ASSOCIATED DROPS IN CIG/VIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE SPEED OF THE
FRONT. ONE SCENARIO IS THE FRONT PARKS OVER ENC, RESULTING IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHRA AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FROM THE MORNING
THROUGH THE EVENING THURSDAY. ANOTHER SCENARIO (WHICH IS WHERE
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY TRENDING) INDICATES A FASTER PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT. THIS WOULD STILL BRING HEAVY RAIN, BUT MAYBE FOR A
SHORTER DURATION (A COUPLE HOURS INSTEAD OF THE WHOLE DAY), WITH
LOW CIGS AND MORE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SETTING UP BEHIND THE
FRONT. ATTEMPTED TO MEET IN THE MIDDLE WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE,
WHILE HIGHLIGHTING THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN WITH THE
+SHRA LINE.
OUTLOOK (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY): A STALLED FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT ROUNDS OF SHRA AND TSRA THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH DRIER
AIR TRYING TO MOVE IN BY THE WEEKEND. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SHRA/TSRA, WITH LOW CIGS POTENTIALLY LASTING INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE DRIER
AIR MOVES IN.
MARINE
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15-25KT WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE NORTHERN WATERS EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING, THEN STALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS DURING
THE DAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES IN, THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND
WINDS WILL LAY DOWN TO 5- 15KT. SEAS OF 4-7FT THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD LAY DOWN TO 2-4FT BY THURSDAY AS THE WINDS LAY DOWN. THE
FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASED RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOR ALL WATERS, ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY): A STALLED FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT AN INCREASED RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY,
ALTHOUGH THE RISK SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THURSDAY NIGHT, BEFORE ENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY
FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NOTICEABLY LIGHTER
ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER, A MORE DOMINANT
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL REPLACE THE RECENT STRETCH OF SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. WITHIN THIS REGIME, SEAS OF 2-4FT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
NCZ029-044>047-079>081-203.
FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
NCZ090>092-094-193>196-198-199-204-205.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-
196-199-204-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ131-230-
231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ135-152-
154-156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150.
DISCUSSION...RM
AVIATION...RM/RJ
MARINE...RM
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