262
FXUS62 KMHX 231956
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
356 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING HAS SLIGHTLY DECREASED THROUGH
SATURDAY.
ALL MARINE HEADLINES HAVE BEEN EXPIRED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT EASTERN NC THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH A RISK OF
FLOODING AND A FEW INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A STALLED FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE TN
VALLEY EAST THROUGH ENC. ALONG THE FRONT RESIDES A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS WITH PWATS OF 2"+, AND MODEST INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE OF
500- 1000J/KG. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THIS FRONT IS FORECAST
TO WABBLE SOME AS VARIOUS MID-LEVEL WAVES RIDE ALONG IT, BUT
GENERALLY REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE OVER ENC. WHILE PERIODS OF RAIN
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG THE FRONT, THE INTENSITY OF THE
RAIN WILL FLUCTUATE, PEAKING WITH EACH PASSING WAVE. ONE WAVE IS
MOVING THROUGH NOW, AND THE NEXT WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A
"LULL" IN RAINFALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ON FRIDAY AS THE FRONT
SAGS SOUTH TEMPORARILY. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN GET PULLED BACK
NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS YET ANOTHER WAVE TRAVERSE
THE FRONTAL ZONE. EACH SUCCESSIVE WAVE IS FORECAST TO HAVE LESS
INSTABILITY WITH IT, WHICH IS ONE FACTOR THAT SHOULD LIMIT THE
DURATION OF THE MORE INTENSE RAINFALL RATES. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE PRESENT, PLUS INCREASED LOW- LEVEL AND LARGE-
SCALE FORCING, RAINFALL RATES OF 0.50"-1.50" SHOULD BE COMMON
FOR SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH TONIGHT, AND AGAIN LATER FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-4", WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE THE DEEPEST/MOST PERSISTENT CONVECTION
OCCURS. BECAUSE OF THE WANING INSTABILITY AND LOWERING RAINFALL
RATES, THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING HAS SLIGHTLY DECREASED. THE
LATEST EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK FROM WPC NOW SHOWS A SLIGHT
RISK OF FLASH FLOODING FOR ENC THROUGH SATURDAY.
DESPITE WANING INSTABILITY, RADAR HAS OCCASIONALLY SHOWN AREAS
OF WEAK ROTATION AND STRONG WINDS (30-50 MPH). THIS RISK LOOKS
TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WHERE INSTABILITY IS THE HIGHEST (IE.
SOUTH OF HWY 70). A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
EITHER.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WIDESPREAD RA AND OCCASIONAL TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT ENC
TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS IS ALL DUE TO A STALLED
FRONT IN THE AREA. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AS WELL, WITH
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE FRONT AND MVFR CONDITIONS TO
THE SOUTH. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT,
THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING WHEN/WHERE LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR.
OUTLOOK: SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA AND TSRA AND LOW CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TO PLAGUE ENC THROUGH SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS STALLED OVER THE AREA. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO FINALLY
SHIFT SOUTH BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING AVIATION
CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY.
MARINE
A FRONT HAS STALLED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, AND WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE GRADIENT HAS
RELAXED AROUND THIS FRONT, WITH BOTH WINDS AND SEAS LAYING DOWN.
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG THIS FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK: A STALLED FRONT WILL FINALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY
SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING FOR ALL
WATERS BY SUNDAY. THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE ON SUNDAY AS WELL. A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WIND AND
SEA PATTERN THEN RETURNS NEXT WEEK.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-
203.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR NCZ090>092-094-193>196-
198-199-204-205.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RM
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...RM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page