808
FXUS62 KMHX 232206
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
606 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DECREASED THUNDERSTORM THREAT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING HAS SLIGHTLY DECREASED THROUGH
SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT EASTERN NC THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH A RISK OF
FLOODING AND A FEW INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A STALLED FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE TN
VALLEY EAST THROUGH ENC. ALONG THE FRONT RESIDES A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS WITH PWATS OF 2"+, AND MODEST INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE OF
500- 1000J/KG. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THIS FRONT IS FORECAST
TO WABBLE SOME AS VARIOUS MID-LEVEL WAVES RIDE ALONG IT, BUT
GENERALLY REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE OVER ENC. WHILE PERIODS OF RAIN
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG THE FRONT, THE INTENSITY OF THE
RAIN WILL FLUCTUATE, PEAKING WITH EACH PASSING WAVE. ONE WAVE IS
MOVING THROUGH NOW, AND THE NEXT WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A
"LULL" IN RAINFALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ON FRIDAY AS THE FRONT
SAGS SOUTH TEMPORARILY. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN GET PULLED BACK
NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS YET ANOTHER WAVE TRAVERSE
THE FRONTAL ZONE. EACH SUCCESSIVE WAVE IS FORECAST TO HAVE LESS
INSTABILITY WITH IT, WHICH IS ONE FACTOR THAT SHOULD LIMIT THE
DURATION OF THE MORE INTENSE RAINFALL RATES. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE PRESENT, PLUS INCREASED LOW- LEVEL AND LARGE-
SCALE FORCING, RAINFALL RATES OF 0.50"-1.50" SHOULD BE COMMON
FOR SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH TONIGHT, AND AGAIN LATER FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-4", WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE THE DEEPEST/MOST PERSISTENT CONVECTION
OCCURS. BECAUSE OF THE WANING INSTABILITY AND LOWERING RAINFALL
RATES, THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING HAS SLIGHTLY DECREASED. THE
LATEST EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK FROM WPC NOW SHOWS A SLIGHT
RISK OF FLASH FLOODING FOR ENC THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE PASSAGE OF EARLIER CONVECTION HAS STABILIZED THE ATMS OVER
ENC FOR A WHILE, AND THUS HAVE LOWERED THE PROB FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO 20-30%. ON FRIDAY, BEST CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE GENERALLY NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF WHERE
INSTABILITY IS THE HIGHEST (IE. SOUTH OF HWY 70).
AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WIDESPREAD RA AND OCCASIONAL TS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT ENC TAF
SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS IS ALL DUE TO A STALLED
FRONT IN THE AREA. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AS WELL, WITH
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE FRONT AND MVFR CONDITIONS TO
THE SOUTH. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT,
THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING WHEN/WHERE LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR. BEST CHC FOR THUNDER WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS EWN AND OAJ.
OUTLOOK (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY): SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN
SHRA AND LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE ENC THROUGH SATURDAY
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED OVER THE AREA. THE FRONT
IS FORECAST TO FINALLY SHIFT SOUTH OF ENC FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ON SAT WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY.
MARINE
A FRONT HAS STALLED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, AND WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE GRADIENT HAS
RELAXED AROUND THIS FRONT, WITH BOTH WINDS AND SEAS LAYING DOWN.
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG THIS FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK: A STALLED FRONT WILL FINALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY
SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING FOR ALL
WATERS BY SUNDAY. THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE ON SUNDAY AS WELL. A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WIND AND
SEA PATTERN THEN RETURNS NEXT WEEK.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-
203.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR NCZ090>092-094-193>196-
198-199-204-205.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RM/TL
AVIATION...TL
MARINE...RM
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