169
FXUS62 KMHX 242345
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
745 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE ENTIRE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING.
LOWERED THUNDER PROBS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOWERED POPS
THROUGH AROUND 05Z AS MUCH OF ENC IN A LULL OF PRECIP.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT EASTERN NC THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH A RISK OF
FLOODING AND A FEW INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.
2) WEAKER COLD FRONT APPROACHES CAROLINAS IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH A RETURN OF OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND RENEWED ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...THIS AFTERNOON, A STALLED FRONT STRETCHES
SOUTHWEST ALONG THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. MEANWHILE, THE MCV
AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW THAT BROUGHT ALL OF THE RAIN TO
ENC EARLIER TODAY IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF ENC. PERHAPS A BIT
OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THAT FEATURE, PLUS REDUCED FORCING,
APPEARS TO BE THE REASON FOR AN OVERALL LACK OF CONVECTION AT
THIS TIME. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST WHERE
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS BEING MAXIMIZED ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT, SUPPORTING ONGOING AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
THE CRYSTAL COAST CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNSET, BUT MAY WANE SOME WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
LATER TONIGHT, THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO RIDE ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT WILL ENCROACH ON THE AREA. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE INCREASED
FORCING AMID A VERY MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD SUPPORT A RENEWED
UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY, AND GUIDANCE NOW
SHOWS THIS LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE DIFFER ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN, BUT THERE
IS A PRETTY SOLID SIGNAL FOR ANOTHER 1-3" FOR MUCH OF ENC
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A REASONABLE WORST CASE OF
ANOTHER 4-8" WHERE RAINFALL RATES ARE THE MOST
PERSISTENT/INTENSE. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE
HEAVIEST RAIN, AND GIVEN HOW SATURATED PARTS OF THE AREA ARE,
AND HOW SENSITIVE SOILS MAY NOW BE, THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
EXTENDED OUT THROUGH 8PM SATURDAY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA, THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A RISK OF
MINOR/NUISANCE FLOODING, BUT WITH A CONTINUED RISK OF A FEW
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONALLY, WE'VE RECEIVED SOME
REPORTS OF TREES COMING DOWN IN THE ABSENCE OF MUCH WIND, AND
THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO SATURATED SOILS, NOT STRONG WINDS. THIS
MAY CONTINUE TO BE A RISK, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN
THE MOST RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 24-36 HOURS.
LASTLY, RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT THERE MAY CONTINUE TO BE JUST
ENOUGH OVERLAP OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A FEW WEAKLY
ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH A GUSTY WIND AND WEAK TORNADO POTENTIAL.
THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS LOW, BUT ISN'T ZERO.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WITH SUNDAY AND MONDAY TRENDING DRIER WITH THE
LINGERING FRONT FINALLY GETTING CARRIED OFFSHORE, FOCUS THEN
TURNS TO ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING THE EASTERN CONUS NEXT MID-
WEEK. THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN OUR
CURRENT BOUNDARY BUT WILL STILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND BUILDING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL BRING
A RETURN OF OPPRESSIVE HEAT WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE DAYS OF HEAT
INDICES APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 105F POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A BREAK IN WIDESPREAD SHRA THIS EVENING, THOUGH OCNL IFR WILL
LINGER IN LOW STRATUS. SHRA REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT, WITH IFR OR
EVEN LIFR EXPECTED. THE POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH
SATURDAY AS FRONTAL INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE. BANDS OF HEAVIER
RAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES AND WILL LOWER THE VSBY TO 1-2 MILES AT
TIMES.
OUTLOOK (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY): THE STALLED FRONT
IS FORECAST TO FINALLY SHIFT SOUTH OF ENC FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS BY
SUNDAY. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
MARINE
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY STALLED OVER ONSLOW BAY THIS MORNING
WITH REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS SHOWING WINDS AT AROUND 10 KT OR
LESS. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RELAXED AROUND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
LITTLE THROUGH TODAY, PERHAPS LIFTING NORTHWARD SLIGHTLY LATER
TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN SAFELY BELOW SCA THROUGH THE
PERIOD BUT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THE
OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE AREA WATERS INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK: A STALLED FRONT WILL FINALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY
SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING FOR
ALL WATERS BY SUNDAY. THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE ON SUNDAY AS WELL. A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WIND AND
SEA PATTERN THEN RETURNS NEXT WEEK.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR NCZ029-044>047-
079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ203.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RM/TL
AVIATION...RM/TL
MARINE...RM/MS
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