333
FXUS62 KMHX 251043
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
643 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ONE FINAL DAY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH A LINGERING RISK OF FLOODING AND A FEW
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.
2) WEAKER COLD FRONT APPROACHES CAROLINAS IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH A RETURN OF OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND RENEWED ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS - A FEW WHICH COULD BE STRONG.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM
YESTERDAY WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL STALLED FROM ROUGHLY
WILMINGTON INTO ONSLOW BAY. HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THIS
MORNING IS FAR MORE LIMITED WITH STRONGER FORCING DISPLACE TO
OUR WEST DESPITE AMPLE MOISTURE. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS AN UPTICK IN
SHOWER COVERAGE WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AFTER ABOUT
08-09Z AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN TN PROVIDES
THE NECESSARILY SUPPORT, WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE LIKELY FILLING IN
OVER THE OUTER BANKS AND TOWARDS THE CRYSTAL COAST.
UPTICK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
DAYTIME HOURS, BECOMING ENHANCED LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT BUILDING OF INSTABILITY. ENSEMBLE OF HI-
RES GUIDANCE GIVES THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF HEAVIEST
RAINFALL LINGERING ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN WHERE AXIS OF
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION TOTALS RESIDE WITH A FEW MEMBERS SHOWING
HIGHER AMOUNTS DISPLACED FARTHER NORTH. GIVEN THIS CONTINUED
UNCERTAINTY, THE EXISTING FLOOD WATCH WAS MAINTAINED THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR ALL AREAS. THE ODDS OF SEEING THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE A SUBJECTIVE 60-75% ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA AND 25-40% ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED TODAY,
MOST LIKELY FROM THE OUTER BANKS SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE CRYSTAL
COAST. IN LOCATIONS WHERE TRAINING OCCURS, LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 3-5 INCHES REMAIN POSSIBLE IN A REASONABLE WORST CASE
SCENARIO. WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
RISK OF MINOR/NUISANCE FLOODING, BUT WITH A CONTINUED RISK OF A
FEW INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONALLY, WE'VE RECEIVED
SOME REPORTS OF TREES COMING DOWN IN THE ABSENCE OF MUCH WIND,
AND THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO SATURATED SOILS, NOT STRONG WINDS.
THIS MAY CONTINUE TO BE A RISK, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT HAVE
SEEN THE MOST RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 24-36 HOURS.
OVERALL SEVERE RISK APPEARS LOW TODAY, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A
WEAKLY ROTATING STORM OR TWO CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF SPIN UP AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30-40
MPH AT TIMES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WITH SUNDAY AND MONDAY TRENDING DRIER WITH THE
LINGERING FRONT FINALLY GETTING CARRIED OFFSHORE, FOCUS THEN
TURNS TO ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING THE EASTERN CONUS NEXT MID-
WEEK. THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN OUR
CURRENT BOUNDARY BUT WILL STILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND BUILDING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL BRING A RETURN OF
OPPRESSIVE HEAT WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE DAYS OF HEAT INDICES
APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 105F POSSIBLE.
THERE IS ALSO AN IMPROVEMENT IN MID-LEVEL KINEMATICS WITH THIS
BOUNDARY AND THERE IS ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER
STORMS, PRIMARILY POSING A DAMAGING WIND GUST RISK. THIS WILL BE
BE DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL TIMING WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN, BUT
TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIFR AND IFR PERSISTS THIS MORNING AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH HAS NOW
LIFTED NORTHWARD TO ROUGHLY NKT TO SOUTH OF MQI. FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STILL MEANDER TODAY, LIKELY BEGINNING TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY, KEEPING A STRONG FRONTAL INVERSION IN
PLACE THROUGH ABOUT 00Z UNTIL THE BOUNDARY FINALLY EXITS
OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. WHILE BOUNDARY IS FURTHER NORTH, EWN AND OAJ
HAVE BRIEF OPPORTUNITIES (MAINLY BETWEEN 18Z-21Z) TO SCATTER
OUT TO IMPROVED CIGS, BUT THIS WILL LIKELY BE PUNCTUATED BY
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
PRECIPITATION THREAT ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST FROM 00Z ONWARD AS
FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE AND DRY AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT IN ALOFT.
LOW-LEVELS WILL REMAIN VERY SATURATED, HOWEVER, AND WITH LITTLE
OR ANY WIND AND HIGHLY SATURATED SOILS REDEVELOPMENT OF VERY LOW
STRATUS AND/OR FOG IS VERY PROBABLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING.
OUTLOOK (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY): THE STALLED FRONT IS
FORECAST TO FINALLY SHIFT SOUTH OF ENC FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS BY
SUNDAY. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
MARINE
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY STALLED OVER ONSLOW BAY EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS SHOWING WINDS AT AROUND 10 KT
OR LESS. LIKE YESTERDAY, FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN SAFELY BELOW SCA
THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
THE OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE AREA WATERS.
BOUNDARY WILL FINALLY DRIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT
ENDING CONVECTIVE CHANCES BY SUN MORNING.
OUTLOOK: MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR ALL
WATERS BY SUNDAY. THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE ON SUNDAY AS WELL. A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WIND AND
SEA PATTERN THEN RETURNS NEXT WEEK, WITH INCREASING RISK OF SCA
CONDITIONS TUES AND WED AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-
090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RM/MS
AVIATION...TL/MS
MARINE...RM/MS
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