931
FXUS62 KMHX 251837
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
237 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PORTIONS OF THE FLOOD WATCH HAVE BEEN CANCELLED EARLY.
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS INCREASED SOME FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING RISK GRADUALLY DIMINISHES BY THIS
EVENING
2) MONITORING A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT
3) NOTABLE WEATHER SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN OF OPPRESSIVE HEAT AHEAD OF IT AND
A CONTINUED RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING EAST ALONG THE CRYSTAL
COAST THIS AFTERNOON, AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE OUTER
BANKS BY THIS EVENING. ALONG THE TRACK OF THIS LOW THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A RISK OF VERY HEAVY RAIN AND SOME MINOR FLOODING
IMPACTS. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS, BUT THE RISK OF FLOODING SHOULD REMAIN LOWER
COMPARED TO AREAS FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE LOW. IN LIGHT OF THIS,
THE FLOOD WATCH WILL BE TRIMMED BACK TO ONLY COVER THE REMAINING
AREAS WITH A RISK OF ADDITIONAL FLOODING THROUGH SUNSET. GIVEN
HOW MUCH RAIN HAS FALLEN IN SOME AREAS, FLOODING IMPACTS WILL
LINGER EVEN AFTER THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS OVER WITH, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE OUTER BANKS AND AREAS ALONG THE HWY 64 CORRIDOR FROM
WASHINGTON EAST THROUGH THE HYDE COUNTY AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...IN THE WAKE OF TODAY'S COLD FRONT, AN
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO THE EAST OF A DOME OF HOT AND HUMID AIR
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS WILL SETUP AN ELEVATED THERMAL
GRADIENT ORIENTED NW TO SE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
CAROLINAS. INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY WILL COMBINE WITH VARIOUS SHORTWAVES DROPPING SE ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE, SUPPORTING SCATTERED
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30-40KT.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL
DEVELOP LOCALLY ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, THE INCREASED DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND A FAVORABLE NW FLOW CONVECTIVE PATTERN APPEARS
SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW ROUNDS OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE
CONVECTION. OF NOTE, SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MAY EVEN OCCUR AT
NIGHT THANKS TO A CONTINUED INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
INTO THE THERMAL GRADIENT.
WHILE INSTABILITY MAY BE ON THE LOWER SIDE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR, ECMWF'S EFI GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF STRONGER
DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY SETUP A NOTABLE SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBO FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. WHILE THIS DOESN'T GUARANTEE SEVERE WEATHER
LOCALLY, IT'S A SCENARIO THAT BEARS WATCHING.
KEY MESSAGE 3...ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITHIN THIS REGIME, A CONVECTIVELY
ACTIVE NW FLOW PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY, AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
DETERMINISTIC, ANALOG, AND MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE. THE SIGNAL
IS THE STRONGEST ON TUESDAY, AND THIS IS THE DAY THAT THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED A PORTION OF OUR AREA IN A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SYNOPTICALLY, THE OVERLAP
OF BUILDING INSTABILITY AND NOTABLY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR CERTAINLY APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE HAZARDS, THERE WILL
ALSO BE A RISK OF DANGEROUS HEAT. THIS RISK ALSO LOOKS TO BE
FOCUSED ON TUESDAY WHEN DEWPOINTS AND AIR TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE THE HIGHEST, WITH HEAT INDICES OF 100-105
DEGREES.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER
TO LIFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF RA
AND TSRA MOVING OFFSHORE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON,
THE TSRA RISK SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF ALL TAF SITES, AND
VCTS/TSRA HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM ALL TAFS. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, IT
APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE MOSTLY A VERY LOW STRATUS SETUP.
HOWEVER, PERIODS OF REDUCED VIS IN BR ARE EXPECTED.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A RISK OF LIFR VIS IN FG, AND THIS
POTENTIAL WILL BE MONITORED IN LATER FORECASTS. FOR NOW, I'VE
LOWERED THE PREVAILING VIS FROM 4SM TO 1SM IN THE TAFS TO
REFLECT THIS POTENTIAL. OF NOTE, THE LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A 20- 40% CHANCE OF FG DEVELOPMENT FOR MOST TAF SITES
TONIGHT. CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY, WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
RETURN BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OUTLOOK: DESPITE A DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN SUNDAY NIGHT, THERE
MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A RISK OF
SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO SUPPORT A CONTINUED RISK OF SCATTERED
TSRA THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OF ENC THIS EVENING,
LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE LOOKOUT AND CAPE HATTERAS. AS THE
LOW MOVES OFFSHORE IT IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN SOME, SUPPORTING A
PERIOD OF MODERATE NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS OF 15-20KT. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE RISK OF FREQUENT 25KT GUSTS IS LOW, THEREFORE NO
MARINE HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. SEAS OF 3-5FT ARE
EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK, WITH 2-4FT SEAS TO
THE SOUTH. THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS ALL WATERS AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.
OUTLOOK: NORTHERLY FLOW WILL LAY DOWN AND BECOME SOUTHERLY BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW THEN CONTINUES THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
OFFERING THE NEXT CHANCE OF 25KT WINDS AND HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. OCCASIONAL GALE-FORCE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS DURING THIS TIME. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 3-7FT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE WINDS BUILD.
OCCASIONAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS WELL.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ047-094-194>196-
203>205.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ203-
205.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RM
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...RM
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