079
FXUS62 KMHX 252340
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
740 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PREEMPTIVELY CANCELLED REMAINDER OF THE FLOOD WATCH.
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS INCREASED SOME FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MONITORING A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT
2) NOTABLE WEATHER SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH A RETURN OF OPPRESSIVE HEAT AHEAD OF IT AND A RISK
OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...IN THE WAKE OF TODAY'S COLD FRONT, AN
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO THE EAST OF A DOME OF HOT AND HUMID AIR
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS WILL SETUP AN ELEVATED THERMAL
GRADIENT ORIENTED NW TO SE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
CAROLINAS. INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY WILL COMBINE WITH VARIOUS SHORTWAVES DROPPING SE ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE, SUPPORTING SCATTERED
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30-40KT.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL
DEVELOP LOCALLY ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, THE INCREASED DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND A FAVORABLE NW FLOW CONVECTIVE PATTERN APPEARS
SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW ROUNDS OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE
CONVECTION. OF NOTE, SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MAY EVEN OCCUR AT
NIGHT THANKS TO A CONTINUED INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
INTO THE THERMAL GRADIENT.
WHILE INSTABILITY MAY BE ON THE LOWER SIDE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR, ECMWF'S EFI GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF STRONGER
DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY SETUP A NOTABLE SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBO FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. WHILE THIS DOESN'T GUARANTEE SEVERE WEATHER
LOCALLY, IT'S A SCENARIO THAT BEARS WATCHING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITHIN THIS REGIME, A CONVECTIVELY
ACTIVE NW FLOW PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY, AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
DETERMINISTIC, ANALOG, AND MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE. THE SIGNAL
IS THE STRONGEST ON TUESDAY, AND THIS IS THE DAY THAT THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED A PORTION OF OUR AREA IN A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SYNOPTICALLY, THE OVERLAP
OF BUILDING INSTABILITY AND NOTABLY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR CERTAINLY APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE HAZARDS, THERE WILL
ALSO BE A RISK OF DANGEROUS HEAT. THIS RISK ALSO LOOKS TO BE
FOCUSED ON TUESDAY WHEN DEWPOINTS AND AIR TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE THE HIGHEST, WITH HEAT INDICES OF 100-105
DEGREES.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
WIDESPREAD IFR CONT WITH ENC LOCKED UNDER AN UNUSUAL (FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR) FRONTAL INVERSION. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, IT APPEARS
THAT IT WILL BE MOSTLY A VERY LOW STRATUS SETUP. HOWEVER,
PERIODS OF REDUCED VIS IN LOW END BR AND FG ARE EXPECTED.
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME DENSE FOG ARE ISO AND PGV WHERE VSBYS
MAY DROP TO 1/2 MI OR LOWER. OF NOTE, THE LATEST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 20- 40% CHANCE OF DENSE FG DEVELOPMENT FOR
MOST TAF SITES TONIGHT. CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY, WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OUTLOOK (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY): DESPITE A DRIER
AIRMASS MOVING IN SUNDAY NIGHT, THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A RISK OF SCATTERED SHRA AND
MAYBE A STORM SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE TO SUPPORT A CONTINUED RISK OF SCATTERED TSRA,
ESP LATE TUE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OF ENC THIS EVENING,
LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE LOOKOUT AND CAPE HATTERAS. AS THE
LOW MOVES OFFSHORE IT IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN SOME, SUPPORTING A
PERIOD OF MODERATE NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS OF 15-20KT. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE RISK OF FREQUENT 25KT GUSTS IS LOW, THEREFORE NO
MARINE HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. SEAS OF 3-5FT ARE
EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK, WITH 2-4FT SEAS TO
THE SOUTH. THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS ALL WATERS AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.
OUTLOOK: NORTHERLY FLOW WILL LAY DOWN AND BECOME SOUTHERLY BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW THEN CONTINUES THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
OFFERING THE NEXT CHANCE OF 25KT WINDS AND HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. OCCASIONAL GALE-FORCE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS DURING THIS TIME. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 3-7FT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE WINDS BUILD.
OCCASIONAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS WELL.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ203-
205.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RM/TL
AVIATION...TL
MARINE...RM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page