430
FXUS62 KMHX 260719
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
319 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG THROUGH THIS MORNING.
2) MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING PRIMARILY NORTH OF US 264
3) NOTABLE WEATHER SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH A RETURN OF OPPRESSIVE HEAT AHEAD OF IT AND A RISK
OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WITH FRESHLY SATURATED SOILS THANKS TO THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS OF RAIN, BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS VERY SATURATED.
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS THIS MORNING AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ARE
PROMOTING A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND PROVIDING IDEAL CONDITIONS
FOR LOW STRATUS AND SOME FOG. EXPECT CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LOWER
THROUGH THE MORNING. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE IDEA
OF DENSE FOG OWING TO THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER, BUT IF IT DOES
DEVELOP BEST CHANCES REMAIN FOR THE INNER COASTAL PLAIN CLOSE TO
THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
KEY MESSAGE 2...COLD FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS
MORNING AND FLOW ALOFT HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY NORTHWESTERLY AS
STRONG HEAT DOME OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS AMPLIFIES
THE FLOW PATTERN. THIS IS PROMOTING AN ELEVATED THERMAL GRADIENT
ORIENTATED NW TO SE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
CAROLINAS. SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY, IN
JUXTAPOSITION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT A RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON AND PUSHING SOUTHEAST. AXIS OF MOST SUPPORTIVE
KINEMATICS IS EXPECTED TO BE DISPLACED TO OUR WEST AND NORTH,
AND CAMS KEEP MOST ACTIVITY HERE DURING THE DAY, RENDERING MOST
OF EASTERN NC DRY TODAY.
OF NOTE, ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE POINTS TO A SEMI-ORGANIZED CLUSTER
OF STORMS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM IN WV/VA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND QUICKLY PUSHING SEWARD TOWARDS EASTERN NC OVERNIGHT. AN
ORGANIZED CLUSTER IN THE FORECAST PRE-STORM ENVIRONMENT WOULD
FAVOR A MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND THREAT. IF THIS WERE TO
MATERIALIZE, IT WOULD MOST LIKELY APPROACH AREAS ALONG HIGHWAY
64 JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY DECAY AS IT
PUSHES FARTHER SOUTHEAST WITH POOR SHEAR AND WANING INSTABILITY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WITHIN THIS REGIME, A CONVECTIVELY
ACTIVE NW FLOW PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY, AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
DETERMINISTIC, ANALOG, AND MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE. THE SIGNAL
REMAINS STRONGEST ON TUESDAY, PARTICULARLY LATER IN THE DAY,
AND THIS IS THE DAY THAT THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
OUTLOOKED A PORTION OF OUR AREA IN AN ELEVATED (15% PROBABILITY)
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SYNOPTICALLY, THE OVERLAP OF BUILDING
INSTABILITY AND UNUSUALLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR CERTAINLY APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. EFI CAPE-SHEAR VALUES ARE IN THE 80-90TH PERCENTILE
FOR THIS EVENT, ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE HAZARDS, THERE WILL
ALSO BE A RISK OF DANGEROUS HEAT. THIS RISK ALSO LOOKS TO BE
FOCUSED ON TUESDAY WHEN DEWPOINTS AND AIR TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE THE HIGHEST, WITH HEAT INDICES OF 100-105
DEGREES.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LARGELY MVFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE THIS MORNING WITH PERSISTENT
DECK OF STRATUS SITTING OVER AREA TERMINALS. THERE ARE SOME
LOWER SPOTS FROM OAJ SOUTHWESTWARD IN IFR TO LIFR. BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH THE MORNING AND EXPECT MORE
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WITH LOWERING STRATUS. FOG
PROBABILITIES HAVE DROPPED QUITE A BIT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS, BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT LOCALLY DENSE OCCURRENCES
WHERE BREAKS IN STRATUS OCCURS.
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE WITH VFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY TO RETURN BY MID-MORNING. A FEW ISO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE
INNER COASTAL PLAIN, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A RISK OF A FEW OVERNIGHT
STORMS MOVING OVER TERMINALS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
00Z. A STRONGER STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS.
OUTLOOK (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY): TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN
EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. STRONG FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS TERMINALS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, BRINGING AHEAD OF IT
GUSTY SW WINDS UP TO 20-25 KT AND A RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OUTSIDE OF ISO TO WIDELY SCT AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
MARINE
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED FARTHER OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING
PLACING AREA WATERS FIRMLY IN NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF
10-15 KT AND SEAS 3-5 FEET. WE ARE CURRENTLY IN THE PERIOD OF
STRONGEST WINDS, AND FLOW IS LIKELY TO SUBSIDE LATER TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS. SEAS WILL RESPOND IN
KIND, DROPPING TO 2-4 FEET BY THIS EVENING. LINGERING CONVECTION
ROUGHLY 60 NM OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY THIS
MORNING, AND THE REST OF TODAY LOOKS TO BE CONVECTION FREE FOR
AREA WATERS.
OUTLOOK: SOUTHERLY FLOW THEN CONTINUES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THIS WEEK. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
OFFERING THE NEXT CHANCE OF 25KT WINDS AND HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. OCCASIONAL GALE-FORCE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS DURING THIS TIME. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 3-7FT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE WINDS BUILD. OCCASIONAL
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS WELL.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RM/MS
AVIATION...TL/MS
MARINE...RM/MS
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