912
FXUS62 KMHX 261828
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
228 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY
2) NOTABLE WEATHER SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY
WITH THE RETURN OF OPPRESSIVE HEAT AHEAD OF IT AND A RISK OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS IS FORECAST TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND EAST THROUGH
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES. MODEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE
BOUNDARY, PLUS ENHANCED CONVERGENCE NEAR A WEAK SURFACE LOW
TRAVERSING THE BOUNDARY, APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR A CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DROP SOUTHEAST
FROM CENTRAL VA INTO NORTHEAST NC LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
CONVECTIVE, GLOBAL, AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAVE SHOWN A
CONSISTENTLY STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER DESPITE
ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. THAT SAID, GUIDANCE IS
ALSO IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING A WEAKENING TREND WITH
THE CONVECTION AS IT APPROACHES ENC. RIGHT NOW, IT APPEARS THE
GREATEST CHANCE OF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE FROM
LENOIR COUNTY NORTH THROUGH MARTIN COUNTY. THE RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER APPEARS LOW, BUT THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF
SOME SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS IN THE STRONGEST CORES.
ON MONDAY, DAYTIME HEATING OF THE AIRMASS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SEABREEZE AND ANY RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM TONIGHT'S
CONVECTION SHOULD SUPPORT A RENEWED RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE
AGAIN, SOME OF THESE COULD BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE.
RESIDUALLY DRY AIR ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT DCAPE VALUES OF 1000+
J/KG. THIS IN TANDEM WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO THE PRIMARY RISK BEING
DAMAGING WINDS OF 40-65 MPH. FORECAST AIDS LIKE THE ECMWF'S EFI
SHOW A DECENT ENVIRONMENTAL SIGNAL FOR A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE. THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON MONDAY SHOULD PRIMARILY BE
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN, WITH THE RISK DECREASING AFTER SUNSET MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON TUESDAY,
WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH VIRGINIA AND
THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG LLJ AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION, WITH
PWATS ONCE AGAIN CLIMBING BACK ABOVE 2". MEANWHILE, HEATING OF A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY, WITH
MLCAPE RISING INTO THE 1000-1500J/KG RANGE. ALOFT, A NOTABLE
UPPER JET MAX IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE INSTABILITY AXIS,
SUPPORTING DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30- 45KT. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL
BE MODERATE, THE SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBO IS NOTABLE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR, AS IS THE AMOUNT OF LIFT EXPECTED.
SYNOPTICALLY, THE COMBINATION OF ALL OF THE FACTORS ABOVE
CHECKS A LOT OF BOXES FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THIS ALSO
HAS OVERWHELMING SUPPORT FROM ENSEMBLE, ANALOG, AND MACHINE
LEARNING GUIDANCE. THE MAIN POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR IS TIMING.
RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONVECTION MAY NOT REACH ENC UNTIL
AFTER SUNSET. DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR A GRADUALLY STABILIZING
BOUNDARY LAYER, THE STRONG LARGE-SCALE FORCING SHOULD HELP
SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTION WELL PAST THE TYPICAL DIURNAL MAX IN
CONVECTIVE INTENSITY THIS TIME OF YEAR. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
FORCING PRESENT, IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT AN MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH
ENC DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS POSING A RISK
OF DAMAGING WINDS. LOW-LEVEL SRH AROUND 100M2/S2 MAY SUPPORT A
FEW ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
TORNADO. HOWEVER, THOSE LATTER 2 HAZARDS SHOULD BE LOWER
COMPARED TO THE WIND RISK. LASTLY, WHILE A MCS WOULD BE MORE
PROGRESSIVE, THE HIGH PWAT AIRMASS SHOULD SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES WHICH MAY SUPPORT A SHORT-FUSED FLOODING RISK, ESPECIALLY
FOR THE AREA HARDEST HIT THE PAST FEW DAYS (IE. HYDE COUNTY
EAST THROUGH THE OUTER BANKS).
AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION, HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED,
WITH HEAT INDICES RISING TO 100-105 DEGREES. THIS APPEARS TO BE
A BIT MARGINAL FOR HEAT HEADLINES, BUT IS SOMETHING WE'LL
CONTINUE TO ASSESS IN LATER FORECASTS.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SCT MVFR-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON, WITH A DECREASING RISK OF MVFR CONDITIONS. SCT
TO BKN LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH
OF ENC THROUGH MONDAY. RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER PERIOD
OF SUB-VFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW,
THEREFORE I ONLY ADDED A SCT MVFR-LEVEL CLOUD LAYER IN THE TAFS
FOR NOW.
THE RISK OF TSRA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER, A CLUSTER OF TSRA IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON AND POTENTIALLY REACH ENC LATE TONIGHT
(06Z-10Z). GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WEAKENING
AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA, BUT THE SIGNAL IN GUIDANCE IS STRONG
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A PROB30 MENTION FOR TSRA FOR KISO AND KPGV.
ON MONDAY, INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO A
RENEWED RISK OF TSRA FOR ALL TAF SITES.
OUTLOOK: A NOTABLY STRONG STORM SYSTEM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS
FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS AND AN INCREASED RISK
OF TSRA. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE TSRA
RISK. RIGHT NOW, THE GREATEST TSRA RISK LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED FROM
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST TSRA
WILL BE CAPABLE OF 40-50KT WINDS AND POTENTIALLY SOME HAIL.
MARINE
LIGHT NORTH WINDS OF 5-15KT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY TONIGHT,
BUT WILL REMAIN LIGHT. FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, A SOUTHEASTERLY
LONG- PERIOD SWELL OF 2-4FT AT 8S IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. A LOW-END THUNDERSTORM RISK IS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT, MAINLY AROUND THE ALBEMARLE SOUND VICINITY. ON MONDAY,
THE THUNDERSTORM RISK SHOULD EXPAND TO INCLUDE MORE OF THE
INLAND RIVERS AND SOUNDS.
OUTLOOK: A STRONG STORM SYSTEM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS
FORECAST TO IMPACT AREA WATERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS AND AN INCREASED RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS OF 15-30KT ARE EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO PEAK IN THE 4-8FT RANGE. OF NOTE,
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE CAPABLE OF 40-50KT WINDS AND HAIL.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ203.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RM
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...RM
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